During the Asian session, spot gold attracted bargain-hunting, retreating from the previous day's over-two-week low. It is currently trading around $3,336/oz, up 0.11% from the previous day's close of $3,333.73, within a narrow range. The widespread expectation that the Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle in September has become a key factor supporting spot gold. Furthermore, cautious market sentiment has driven some safe-haven flows into gold.
Meanwhile, the US dollar is attempting to extend its gains from the previous day as market expectations for aggressive Fed easing have receded. Meanwhile, hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement may limit gold's gains. Gold bulls may opt to await Wednesday's release of the Fed's meeting minutes and Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Market Trends: Gold Benefits from Bets of an Imminent Fed Rate Cut in September
Following Thursday's release of US July PPI data, which saw the fastest month-over-month growth since 2022, traders have scaled back bets on a significant Fed rate cut in September. Furthermore, preliminary data from the University of Michigan on Friday showed that US one-year inflation expectations rose from 4.5% to 4.9%, while five-year expectations rose from 3.4% to 3.9%.
These data suggest an accelerating recovery in price pressures, strengthening the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain its hawkish stance and, in turn, negative for spot gold. However, the market still sees a near 85% probability of a September rate cut, with at least two more 25 basis point cuts expected this year. This has curbed the dollar's gains and provided support for gold.
S&P Global Ratings affirmed the US sovereign credit rating at "AA+/A-1+" with a "stable" outlook. The agency noted that due to structural increases in interest expenses and rising aging-related expenses, the US government's net debt-to-GDP ratio will approach 100%. While the fiscal deficit is unlikely to improve materially in the short term, it is unlikely to deteriorate further in the coming years.
Geopolitically, Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to a peace summit with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, signaling a glimmer of hope for a breakthrough in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This may limit the upside for safe-haven gold. Traders may await further clues on the Fed's rate cut path before making any new moves. Therefore, market focus will shift to Wednesday's release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Furthermore, Thursday's release of preliminary PMI data will provide fresh evidence of the health of the global economy, potentially triggering fluctuations in spot gold prices.
Tuesday's housing data, such as the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index, will have limited impact on gold prices. However, comments from Fed officials could drive shifts in dollar demand, which, combined with overall risk appetite, could create short-term trading opportunities for gold.
On the four-hour chart, gold may face strong resistance near the 200-period moving average, currently located just above the $3,350 mark.
From a technical perspective, slightly negative indicators on the four-hour chart suggest caution for bulls, potentially requiring adjustments to positions following recent sharp gains. Therefore, any further upward movement in gold prices is likely to face strong resistance near the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) on the four-hour chart, currently located in the $3,347-3,348 range. A breakout of this level will focus on the overnight swing high of $3,358. A sustained breakout could push spot gold further towards the $3,372-3,374 range. A sustained upward trend could see gold reclaim the $3,400 mark, potentially testing this month's peak of $3,408-3,410.
On the downside, the $3,325-3,323 range (Monday's two-week low) is expected to provide initial support. A break below this level could trigger a move to the key $3,310-3,300 range. A confirmed break below this support level could accelerate the decline towards the $3,283-3,282 support level, potentially testing the late June swing low of $3,268, which also represents the lower limit of the trading range over the past three months. A successful break below this level would provide renewed momentum for bearish traders.
XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD
Meanwhile, the US dollar is attempting to extend its gains from the previous day as market expectations for aggressive Fed easing have receded. Meanwhile, hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement may limit gold's gains. Gold bulls may opt to await Wednesday's release of the Fed's meeting minutes and Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Market Trends: Gold Benefits from Bets of an Imminent Fed Rate Cut in September
Following Thursday's release of US July PPI data, which saw the fastest month-over-month growth since 2022, traders have scaled back bets on a significant Fed rate cut in September. Furthermore, preliminary data from the University of Michigan on Friday showed that US one-year inflation expectations rose from 4.5% to 4.9%, while five-year expectations rose from 3.4% to 3.9%.
These data suggest an accelerating recovery in price pressures, strengthening the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain its hawkish stance and, in turn, negative for spot gold. However, the market still sees a near 85% probability of a September rate cut, with at least two more 25 basis point cuts expected this year. This has curbed the dollar's gains and provided support for gold.
S&P Global Ratings affirmed the US sovereign credit rating at "AA+/A-1+" with a "stable" outlook. The agency noted that due to structural increases in interest expenses and rising aging-related expenses, the US government's net debt-to-GDP ratio will approach 100%. While the fiscal deficit is unlikely to improve materially in the short term, it is unlikely to deteriorate further in the coming years.
Geopolitically, Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to a peace summit with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, signaling a glimmer of hope for a breakthrough in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This may limit the upside for safe-haven gold. Traders may await further clues on the Fed's rate cut path before making any new moves. Therefore, market focus will shift to Wednesday's release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Furthermore, Thursday's release of preliminary PMI data will provide fresh evidence of the health of the global economy, potentially triggering fluctuations in spot gold prices.
Tuesday's housing data, such as the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index, will have limited impact on gold prices. However, comments from Fed officials could drive shifts in dollar demand, which, combined with overall risk appetite, could create short-term trading opportunities for gold.
On the four-hour chart, gold may face strong resistance near the 200-period moving average, currently located just above the $3,350 mark.
From a technical perspective, slightly negative indicators on the four-hour chart suggest caution for bulls, potentially requiring adjustments to positions following recent sharp gains. Therefore, any further upward movement in gold prices is likely to face strong resistance near the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) on the four-hour chart, currently located in the $3,347-3,348 range. A breakout of this level will focus on the overnight swing high of $3,358. A sustained breakout could push spot gold further towards the $3,372-3,374 range. A sustained upward trend could see gold reclaim the $3,400 mark, potentially testing this month's peak of $3,408-3,410.
On the downside, the $3,325-3,323 range (Monday's two-week low) is expected to provide initial support. A break below this level could trigger a move to the key $3,310-3,300 range. A confirmed break below this support level could accelerate the decline towards the $3,283-3,282 support level, potentially testing the late June swing low of $3,268, which also represents the lower limit of the trading range over the past three months. A successful break below this level would provide renewed momentum for bearish traders.
XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD 
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Real-time strategies are like a beacon guiding your investment path. The market will never disappoint those who persevere and explore wisely....🚀🚀VIP Channel t.me/EagleEyePrecisionAnalysis
👉Exclusive address t.me/Eagle_PreciseAnalysis
👉Exclusive address t.me/Eagle_PreciseAnalysis
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.