The gold bull-bear game intensifies: a breakthrough opportunity is hidden in the short-term shock
[Fundamentals: Employment data tears market expectations]
The gold market experienced violent fluctuations this week, and the core contradiction came from contradictory employment signals:
ADP cooling: The number of private sector jobs in the United States unexpectedly decreased in June, which once strengthened the expectation of a rate cut in September and pushed the gold price up
Non-farm counterattack: The subsequent non-farm employment announced exceeded expectations (206,000), which quickly extinguished the enthusiasm for rate cuts and gold prices gave up gains
Central bank support: Global central banks continue to buy gold (China increased its gold reserves in June), building a safety cushion for long-term prices
The essence of the "data fight" reflects that the resilience of the US economy remains, but cracks have appeared. The Federal Reserve dares neither cut interest rates too early (inflation risk) nor over-tighten (loosening of the employment market). This swing state will prolong the volatility cycle of gold, but every sharp drop is an opportunity for central banks and long-term investors to enter the market.
Technical aspect: Breakthrough signal of the four-hour chart
Current market characteristics:
Key position: 3344-3346 area has become the watershed between long and short positions. After three unsuccessful tests, the probability of this breakthrough has increased
Morphological structure: Breakthrough of the downward trend line of the four-hour chart + MACD golden cross, long arrangement of hourly moving average
Volume coordination: After yesterday's retracement to 3330 support, the volume rebounded, showing strong low-level support
Operation strategy:
Bull defense line: 3330-3325 (if broken, it will turn into shock)
Upward target:
▶ The first target is 3360 (previous high psychological position)
▶ The second target is 3380 (Fibonacci extension position)
▶ Ultimate target 3400 (option barrier)
[Trading strategy: Buy low and follow the breakthrough]
Specific plan:
Conservatives:
Light long position at 3333-3335 (stop loss 3323)
After breaking through 3347, add more positions (stop loss 3335)
Radicals:
Batch layout above the current price of 3340, with 3325 as the ultimate defense
Risk warning:
⚠️ Beware of the volatility caused by Powell's speech on Friday night
⚠️ If 3320 is lost, beware of a deep correction to the 3300 mark
[Subjective conclusion: Discipline is more needed in a volatile market]
Currently, gold is in the "accumulation breakthrough" stage, with a bullish technical side but requiring fundamentals to cooperate. It is recommended to use the "small stop loss breakthrough" strategy, and it is better to miss it than to go against the trend. If it can stand firm at 3350 this week, it will no longer be a fantasy to look at 3400 in the third quarter.
[Fundamentals: Employment data tears market expectations]
The gold market experienced violent fluctuations this week, and the core contradiction came from contradictory employment signals:
ADP cooling: The number of private sector jobs in the United States unexpectedly decreased in June, which once strengthened the expectation of a rate cut in September and pushed the gold price up
Non-farm counterattack: The subsequent non-farm employment announced exceeded expectations (206,000), which quickly extinguished the enthusiasm for rate cuts and gold prices gave up gains
Central bank support: Global central banks continue to buy gold (China increased its gold reserves in June), building a safety cushion for long-term prices
The essence of the "data fight" reflects that the resilience of the US economy remains, but cracks have appeared. The Federal Reserve dares neither cut interest rates too early (inflation risk) nor over-tighten (loosening of the employment market). This swing state will prolong the volatility cycle of gold, but every sharp drop is an opportunity for central banks and long-term investors to enter the market.
Technical aspect: Breakthrough signal of the four-hour chart
Current market characteristics:
Key position: 3344-3346 area has become the watershed between long and short positions. After three unsuccessful tests, the probability of this breakthrough has increased
Morphological structure: Breakthrough of the downward trend line of the four-hour chart + MACD golden cross, long arrangement of hourly moving average
Volume coordination: After yesterday's retracement to 3330 support, the volume rebounded, showing strong low-level support
Operation strategy:
Bull defense line: 3330-3325 (if broken, it will turn into shock)
Upward target:
▶ The first target is 3360 (previous high psychological position)
▶ The second target is 3380 (Fibonacci extension position)
▶ Ultimate target 3400 (option barrier)
[Trading strategy: Buy low and follow the breakthrough]
Specific plan:
Conservatives:
Light long position at 3333-3335 (stop loss 3323)
After breaking through 3347, add more positions (stop loss 3335)
Radicals:
Batch layout above the current price of 3340, with 3325 as the ultimate defense
Risk warning:
⚠️ Beware of the volatility caused by Powell's speech on Friday night
⚠️ If 3320 is lost, beware of a deep correction to the 3300 mark
[Subjective conclusion: Discipline is more needed in a volatile market]
Currently, gold is in the "accumulation breakthrough" stage, with a bullish technical side but requiring fundamentals to cooperate. It is recommended to use the "small stop loss breakthrough" strategy, and it is better to miss it than to go against the trend. If it can stand firm at 3350 this week, it will no longer be a fantasy to look at 3400 in the third quarter.
Free Signals：t.me/+WwrJpK6G_U9iM2Qx
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Free Signals：t.me/+WwrJpK6G_U9iM2Qx
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.