Analysis of gold news: Friday (July 4) coincided with the US Independence Day holiday, and gold prices were in a narrow range of fluctuations. Strong employment data not only pushed up the US dollar and US bond yields, but also significantly weakened the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve's early rate cuts, which greatly reduced the attractiveness of gold. At the same time, the US Congress passed the Trump administration's massive tax cut and spending bill, further injecting complex variables into the economy. There will be no key data to watch today. Due to the US Independence Day, all markets will close early, which will limit the fluctuation range of gold prices.
Key technical signals:
Daily level:
Range fluctuations: Gold prices repeatedly tested in the 3320-3360 range, the Bollinger band narrowed, and the MACD kinetic energy column shrank, indicating that the market was in a wait-and-see mood.
Key support/resistance:
Support: 3320 (5-day moving average), 3300 (psychological barrier + Bollinger lower track).
Resistance: 3350-3360 (non-agricultural starting point + daily middle track).
4-hour level:
Short-term bottoming signs: After the non-agricultural data, the gold price fell to 3322 and then rebounded, forming a double bottom prototype, but it needs to break through 3350 to confirm the reversal.
RSI is neutral (around 50) and may maintain a narrow range of fluctuations in the short term.
2. Next week's market deduction
1. Baseline scenario (oscillation and consolidation, 60% probability)
Trend: The gold price fluctuates in the 3320-3360 range, waiting for CPI data to guide the direction.
Operation strategy:
Short-term high-sell and low-buy:
Long order: Long at around 3320-3325, stop loss 3305, target 3350.
Short order: Short at 3350-3360 under pressure, stop loss 3370, target 3320.
2. Bullish breakthrough scenario (30% probability, CPI data required)
Trigger conditions: CPI is lower than expected (such as below 3.2%), the market re-bets on interest rate cuts, and the US dollar weakens.
Trend: After breaking through 3360, it may test 3380 (200-day moving average) or even 3400.
Operation strategy:
Break through and chase long: Follow up after stabilizing 3360, target 3380-3400.
3. Bearish breakout scenario (10% probability, need continued strength of the US dollar)
Trigger conditions: CPI is stronger than expected (such as more than 3.5%), and the Fed's hawkish remarks suppress expectations of rate cuts.
Trend: After breaking below 3300, it may test 3260 (June low).
Operation strategy:
Break through and follow short: After breaking below 3300, chase short, target 3260.
III. Trading strategy and risk management
Short-term trading (suitable for intraday positions)
Shock strategy: Buy high and sell low in the range of 3320-3360, with strict stop loss (10$-15$).
Breakout strategy: Wait for CPI data and follow the trend. If it breaks through 3360, chase longs or if it falls below 3300, follow shorts.
Mid-term layout (pay attention to the trend after CPI)
If CPI is positive: set up long orders at 3330-3340, with a target of 3400.
If CPI is negative: set up short orders at 3350-3360, with a target of 3260.
Risk warning
Liquidity risk: Speech by Fed officials (such as Powell) may trigger short-term sharp fluctuations.
Geopolitical risk: Sudden conflicts or banking crises may trigger safe-haven buying, breaking the technical logic.
4. Summary and key points
Core range: 3320-3360 (maintain the idea of oscillation before breaking through).
Long-short watershed:
Breaking through 3360 → opening up space to 3400.
Breaking through 3300 → opening a downward trend to 3260.
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💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+OJSbWQ6F4KM2Mzk1
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.