The market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September to be over 70%, with some institutions even predicting as high as 93.6%. Fed officials have recently released dovish remarks. If the rate cut is implemented, it will reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is good for gold prices. The US has imposed tariffs on India and Switzerland, exacerbating global trade tensions and boosting demand for gold as a safe haven. The deadlock in the Iran nuclear talks and the shipping risks in the Red Sea have increased market risk aversion. Focus is on US initial jobless claims data and speeches by Fed officials. If the data is stronger than expected, it may suppress expectations of a rate cut and be bearish for gold. If the US dollar strengthens or geopolitical risks ease, gold prices may come under pressure and fall. Today, gold mainly showed a high-level fluctuation trend, hitting a high of $3397.25/oz in European trading before falling sharply. It is currently trading around $3382. Although gold prices are still in an upward channel, they have recently shown a high sideways trend. The market lacks unilateral driving factors. Gold can be shorted at high levels. It is recommended to short gold in batches around the highs of 3390-3405.
Trade active
Today, 1 long and 3 short positions made a profit of 580pips. The first wave was shorting near 3378, and the market was exited when it fell to 3367, with a profit of 110pips on this order. The second wave of gold encountered resistance but did not break through, so it prompted shorting near 3395, and finally exited at 3380, with a profit of 150pips on this order. When gold fell back to around 3372, it prompted long again, and when it rose to 3387, it prompted exit, with a profit of 150 points on this order. Then it prompted shorting at 3392, and when it fell to 3375, it exited, with a profit of 170 points on this order. The reason why people who make profits make profits is because they focus on how to avoid losses, and the reason why people who lose money lose money is because they always fantasize about what they will do if they make profits. Consider failure before winning, and consider risks before making profits. The direction of thinking should be to correct bad habits first, and then think about profits.Trade closed: target reached
The value of investing lies not in profit margins but in minimizing risk. Every trade carries risk. Control your greed when you're right and manage losses when you're wrong. An investor without risk management awareness will ultimately fail. There's no infallible trading strategy, but a trader who doesn't set stop-loss orders will never recover from a single mistake. Profits are built upon accumulation, and trading is a comprehensive system. If your success rate exceeds 50%, all accumulated losses are eliminated. Those who don't consider the overall situation are incapable of focusing on specific areas. Therefore, as a trader, we need to develop a comprehensive and systematic trading plan, rather than focusing on the gains and losses of individual markets. Most losses come from single, gamble-like trades, which demonstrates that trading is a form of gambling. The key to trading lies in distinguishing this from gambling and controlling our emotions. When facing the market, our only recourse is rationality.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.