Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD | July 15, 2025

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🟢 Trade Update
The BUY order at the 3342 – 3340 zone was triggered at 3341. As of now, price has moved up by 140 pips, and the market is still following the planned scenario from the previous analysis.

📊 Momentum Analysis

D1 Timeframe: Momentum is in the overbought zone, and indicator lines are showing signs of crossing — a warning signal of a potential reversal on the daily chart.

H4 Timeframe: After a 6-candle decline from 3377 to 3342, H4 momentum has reversed upward. With 2 bullish candles already formed, we expect another 3–5 bullish candles, aiming toward the 3390 zone.

🌀 Elliott Wave Update

Price action is currently moving toward the end of the abcde contracting triangle. We are monitoring two potential scenarios:

Scenario 1 – Ongoing Triangle Correction
If price returns to the lower boundary of the triangle, it is likely forming wave e, which would present a buy opportunity for the final leg of the triangle.

Scenario 2 – 5-Wave Impulse Extension
The current structure shows a 5-wave impulsive move, with wave 4 completed and wave 5 now beginning.

The projected target for wave 5 aligns with the resistance zone at 3398 – 3402.

After completing wave 5, the market could enter a corrective phase, consistent with the idea that wave d ends at this resistance.

🔔 If the price breaks above 3402, it would likely confirm that the abcde correction is complete and that a new impulsive bullish wave has started.

🎯 Trade Plan

📍SELL Zone: 3396 – 3398
⛔️ Stop Loss: 3406
🎯 TP1: 3376
🎯 TP2: 3327

📍BUY Zone: 3295 – 3293
⛔️ Stop Loss: 3285
🎯 TP1: 3327
🎯 TP2: 3365
🎯 TP3: 3402

✅ Note: Prioritize entries only after confirmation from price action and momentum at key levels.

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