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Spot gold prices were stable during the Asian and European trading sessions, as investors awaited further developments related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Last Friday, gold prices rose 1% on growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Moving forward, the market will focus on upcoming US economic data to gauge the Fed's policy direction. Meanwhile, the continued development of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict could have a significant impact on the global geopolitical landscape and gold prices.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains stalemated, raising concerns about geopolitical risks.
Currently, the conflict in Gaza remains volatile, and the international community continues to call for a ceasefire to alleviate humanitarian pressure. Some European countries have proposed recognizing a Palestinian state in an effort to facilitate ceasefire negotiations, but this move has triggered a strong reaction from Israel, exacerbating diplomatic and military disagreements between the two sides.
Israel has recently accelerated its military operations in Gaza, while conflicts with neighboring armed groups have escalated. For example, on Sunday, August 24, Israel launched airstrikes on the Yemeni capital, Sana'a, in response to Houthi missile attacks on Israel. According to the Houthis, the attack killed six people and injured 86. This is the latest in a series of direct clashes between Israel and the Houthi rebels since the Gaza conflict began, indicating a growing risk of conflict spillover.
If the Gaza fighting continues to drag on, it could further impact Red Sea shipping and global supply chains, pushing up inflation expectations and, in turn, increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven and inflation-fighting hedge. However, if the conflict subsides quickly, risk aversion may intensify in the short term, but in the long term, the geopolitical risk premium in gold prices may weaken, creating a short-term bullish and long-term bearish pattern. Traders should closely monitor the development of the conflict and its potential impact on the market.
International Efforts for a Ceasefire and the Complex Game
Recently, French President Macron announced his recognition of the State of Palestine, sparking strong opposition from Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that the decision could escalate regional tensions. Subsequently, countries such as Australia and Canada expressed similar views, while the United Kingdom proposed supporting the establishment of a Palestinian state as a condition of a ceasefire. These diplomatic moves are intended to promote a "two-state solution," but they have also exacerbated tensions between Israel and Palestine.
Israel believes that external pressure could undermine its security guarantees and is therefore inclined to accelerate military operations to seize the initiative. At the same time, the ongoing conflict has worsened the humanitarian situation in Gaza, further drawing international attention.
The Impact of Conflict Spillover on the Global Economy
The ongoing Gaza conflict could have multiple impacts on the global economy. First, the disruption of shipping in the Red Sea could disrupt supply chains, driving up energy and commodity prices and exacerbating global inflationary pressures. Second, the conflict could spill over to other parts of the Middle East, further escalating geopolitical risks. These factors are likely to increase demand for gold as a safe haven.
Impact on the Gold Market: Geopolitical Risk and Gold Price Fluctuations
Currently, the complexity and uncertainty of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have injected an additional safe-haven premium into the gold market. If the conflict escalates further, particularly involving energy corridors or broader geopolitical instability, gold's safe-haven and inflation-fighting properties will be further accentuated, supporting high and volatile gold prices or even breaking through key resistance levels.
Conversely, if the conflict eases in the short term, market risk aversion may temporarily subside, and the geopolitical risk premium in gold prices may decrease. Traders should be wary of the risk of a possible price correction.
Technical Analysis:
As analyzed in the previous article, spot gold prices are rising, re-entering the original X-line on the daily chart. Meanwhile, gold prices are trading above the 10-, 20-, and 30-day moving averages, indicating a near-universal bullish trend. Both the MACD and KDJ indicators are in bullish attack zones, suggesting upward momentum for gold. 3370.9 is the first resistance level, the key level for the August 11th Evening Star.
Here we need to wait for the US economic data, including the July core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, the August consumer price index (CPI) and the August non-farm employment report, and at the same time observe Israel's offensive on Gaza. If the war is stalemate, it will lead to war spillover, and European countries will collectively confront Israel. Special battle nodes may ignite gold prices. At the same time, if Israel quickly takes control of the core area of Gaza, gold prices will face short-term long-term short trends, and traders need to be alert to possible false breakthroughs in gold prices.
XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD
Spot gold prices were stable during the Asian and European trading sessions, as investors awaited further developments related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Last Friday, gold prices rose 1% on growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Moving forward, the market will focus on upcoming US economic data to gauge the Fed's policy direction. Meanwhile, the continued development of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict could have a significant impact on the global geopolitical landscape and gold prices.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains stalemated, raising concerns about geopolitical risks.
Currently, the conflict in Gaza remains volatile, and the international community continues to call for a ceasefire to alleviate humanitarian pressure. Some European countries have proposed recognizing a Palestinian state in an effort to facilitate ceasefire negotiations, but this move has triggered a strong reaction from Israel, exacerbating diplomatic and military disagreements between the two sides.
Israel has recently accelerated its military operations in Gaza, while conflicts with neighboring armed groups have escalated. For example, on Sunday, August 24, Israel launched airstrikes on the Yemeni capital, Sana'a, in response to Houthi missile attacks on Israel. According to the Houthis, the attack killed six people and injured 86. This is the latest in a series of direct clashes between Israel and the Houthi rebels since the Gaza conflict began, indicating a growing risk of conflict spillover.
If the Gaza fighting continues to drag on, it could further impact Red Sea shipping and global supply chains, pushing up inflation expectations and, in turn, increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven and inflation-fighting hedge. However, if the conflict subsides quickly, risk aversion may intensify in the short term, but in the long term, the geopolitical risk premium in gold prices may weaken, creating a short-term bullish and long-term bearish pattern. Traders should closely monitor the development of the conflict and its potential impact on the market.
International Efforts for a Ceasefire and the Complex Game
Recently, French President Macron announced his recognition of the State of Palestine, sparking strong opposition from Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that the decision could escalate regional tensions. Subsequently, countries such as Australia and Canada expressed similar views, while the United Kingdom proposed supporting the establishment of a Palestinian state as a condition of a ceasefire. These diplomatic moves are intended to promote a "two-state solution," but they have also exacerbated tensions between Israel and Palestine.
Israel believes that external pressure could undermine its security guarantees and is therefore inclined to accelerate military operations to seize the initiative. At the same time, the ongoing conflict has worsened the humanitarian situation in Gaza, further drawing international attention.
The Impact of Conflict Spillover on the Global Economy
The ongoing Gaza conflict could have multiple impacts on the global economy. First, the disruption of shipping in the Red Sea could disrupt supply chains, driving up energy and commodity prices and exacerbating global inflationary pressures. Second, the conflict could spill over to other parts of the Middle East, further escalating geopolitical risks. These factors are likely to increase demand for gold as a safe haven.
Impact on the Gold Market: Geopolitical Risk and Gold Price Fluctuations
Currently, the complexity and uncertainty of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have injected an additional safe-haven premium into the gold market. If the conflict escalates further, particularly involving energy corridors or broader geopolitical instability, gold's safe-haven and inflation-fighting properties will be further accentuated, supporting high and volatile gold prices or even breaking through key resistance levels.
Conversely, if the conflict eases in the short term, market risk aversion may temporarily subside, and the geopolitical risk premium in gold prices may decrease. Traders should be wary of the risk of a possible price correction.
Technical Analysis:
As analyzed in the previous article, spot gold prices are rising, re-entering the original X-line on the daily chart. Meanwhile, gold prices are trading above the 10-, 20-, and 30-day moving averages, indicating a near-universal bullish trend. Both the MACD and KDJ indicators are in bullish attack zones, suggesting upward momentum for gold. 3370.9 is the first resistance level, the key level for the August 11th Evening Star.
Here we need to wait for the US economic data, including the July core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, the August consumer price index (CPI) and the August non-farm employment report, and at the same time observe Israel's offensive on Gaza. If the war is stalemate, it will lead to war spillover, and European countries will collectively confront Israel. Special battle nodes may ignite gold prices. At the same time, if Israel quickly takes control of the core area of Gaza, gold prices will face short-term long-term short trends, and traders need to be alert to possible false breakthroughs in gold prices.
XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD 
Real-time strategies are like a beacon guiding your investment path. The market will never disappoint those who persevere and explore wisely....🚀🚀VIP Channel t.me/EagleEyePrecisionAnalysis
👉Exclusive address t.me/Eagle_PreciseAnalysis
👉Exclusive address t.me/Eagle_PreciseAnalysis
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Real-time strategies are like a beacon guiding your investment path. The market will never disappoint those who persevere and explore wisely....🚀🚀VIP Channel t.me/EagleEyePrecisionAnalysis
👉Exclusive address t.me/Eagle_PreciseAnalysis
👉Exclusive address t.me/Eagle_PreciseAnalysis
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.