📌 News analysis
Expectations of the Fed's rate cut continue to affect the market
The market's expectations for the Fed's rate cut in 2025 have increased, the US dollar index remains weak, and gold has gained support.
Key points of attention: This week's Fed interest rate decision and Powell's speech, if dovish signals are released (such as hinting at a rate cut in September), gold may rebound; if hawkish (postponing the rate cut), gold prices may be further under pressure.
The situation in the Middle East has escalated, and risk aversion has increased
After Israel attacked Iran's state TV station, Iran threatened "the largest retaliation in history", and the fire on the tanker in the Strait of Hormuz has exacerbated geopolitical risks.
Potential impact: If the conflict expands (such as Iran blocking the Strait or directly counterattacking), gold may rise rapidly; if the situation eases (negotiation signals), safe-haven buying may weaken.
US economic data and market sentiment
If recent US economic data (such as retail sales and unemployment rate) are weak, it may strengthen expectations of rate cuts and benefit gold; if the data is strong, it may suppress gold prices.
📊 Technical Analysis
🔹 Daily level: Bearish, but key support needs to be paid attention to
Trend review: Gold price fell after a high rise at the beginning of the week, falling below the 3400 mark and closing with a large negative line, indicating that bears are dominant.
Key signals:
The 5-day moving average turned downward, suppressing the rebound of gold prices in the short term.
The Bollinger Bands closed, indicating that the market has entered a shock consolidation phase. If it falls below 3350, it may accelerate downward to 3300.
Support level: 3360-3350 (if it stabilizes, it may rebound); resistance level: 3400-3410 (if it breaks through, it may test 3450).
🔹 4-hour level: Bearish, but there may be a rebound correction in the short term
Short-term moving average suppression (5-day and 20-day moving averages are glued at 3404-3409) constitutes strong resistance.
MACD crosses, but Stoch is oversold, and may correct and rebound in the short term, but if it fails to break through 3400, it may continue to fall.
Key support: 3360-3350 (if it falls below, it may drop to 3330-3300).
🔹 1-hour level: Weak shock, pay attention to the rebound strength
MACD crosses and shrinks, Stoch moves downward, and it is still weak in the short term.
Upper pressure: 3412 (MA60+MA30), if it fails to break through, it may continue to fall.
🎯 Today's operation strategy
📉 Short-term trading ideas: short-selling on rebounds is the main method, and long-selling on pullbacks is the auxiliary method
✅ Short-selling opportunities (selling at highs):
Entry area: 3395-3405 (if the rebound is blocked)
Target: 3360-3350
Stop loss: above 3410
✅ Long opportunities (buy low):
Entry area: 3360-3350 (if it stabilizes and rebounds)
Target: 3380-3400
Stop loss: below 3345
⚠️ Key risk warnings:
Market volatility may intensify before the Fed's decision. It is recommended to operate with a light position and strictly stop loss.
If the situation in the Middle East deteriorates, it may trigger a rapid rise in gold. Pay attention to real-time news.
📌 Summary: Gold is short-term dominant, but the key support (3360-3350) still has the possibility of a rebound. In terms of trading, it is recommended to take high-short as the main idea and low-long as the auxiliary idea, focusing on the Federal Reserve’s decisions and geopolitical trends.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+OJSbWQ6F4KM2Mzk1
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+OJSbWQ6F4KM2Mzk1
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.