I. Gold's Current Core Contradiction
Bull Support Factors
Weak non-farm payroll data reinforces expectations of a Fed rate cut, with the market betting on an over 80% probability of a September rate cut.
Risk Aversion: Although the tariff extension has not yet been finalized, the market remains concerned about escalating trade frictions, and gold is in high demand as a safe-haven asset.
Technical Breakout: Friday saw a strong breakout above the 3340-3350 resistance zone, with the daily chart showing a positive enveloping negative trend. Short-term bullish momentum prevails.
Potential Short-Term Opportunities
Monthly Top Signal: Consecutive high-level doji candlesticks with long upper shadows suggest medium-term selling pressure.
Fundamental Bearish Hidden Dangers:
The Fed's independence remains, and Powell may not cut interest rates prematurely due to pressure from Trump.
II. Key Technical Signals
1. Weekly Level: Range Unbroken
The 3268-3438 range persists, currently nearing its upper limit, so be wary of a pullback.
Bollinger Bands are converging, with the MA5/MA10 convergence signaling an approaching market reversal window.
2. Daily and short-term cycles: Overbought correction needs
After Friday's surge: 4-hour/1-hour RSI is overbought, the Bollinger Band opening is unsustainable, and a technical retracement is needed.
Key positions:
Resistance: 3376 (previous high) + 3385 (Fibonacci expansion level);
Support: 3340 (top and bottom conversion) + 3315 (bull defense line).
3. Triangle convergence pattern:
If it opens high and breaks through 3376 on Monday, August 4, it may test 3400; if it opens low and falls below 3340, it will look down to 3315-3280.
III. Operation strategy for next week on August 4
(1) Response to three opening scenarios
Scenario 1: Opening high (above 3370)
Strategy: Short in batches in the 3376-3385 area, stop loss at 3400, target 3340→3315.
Logic: Positive overdraft + technical overbought, betting on a pullback.
Scenario 2: Flat opening (around 3360)
Strategy: If the price rises from 3366 but does not break through, go short with a light position, stop loss at 3376, target 3340; if it falls below 3340, go short and look at 3315.
Alternative: If the support at 3340 is effective, go long, stop loss at 3330, target 3360.
Scenario 3: Low opening (below 3340)
Strategy: Go long in the 3338-3340 area, stop loss at 3325, target 3360; if it breaks through 3315, go short.
(2) Mid-term layout
Short opportunity: Go short in the 3385-3400 area, stop loss at 3420, target 3245 (monthly support).
Buy opportunity: If the price falls back to 3315-3280 at the beginning of the week and stabilizes, go long in the mid-term, stop loss at 3260, target 3400.
IV. Risks and Warnings
Beware of institutional manipulation: Friday's late-day surge may be a trap for buying; beware of a flash crash at Monday's opening.
Data disturbance: Pay close attention to the speeches of Fed officials. If inflation rebounds or hawkish remarks are made, it will be bearish for gold.
Undetermined trend: The market is still volatile and unilateral trends need to wait for confirmation of a breakthrough in the range.
Conclusion
Short-term: Prioritize shorting in the 3370-3385 area, and enter long positions in the 3340-3315 area when appropriate, maintaining strict stop-loss orders.
Mid-term: The monthly bearish pattern has not changed, and above 3385 is the ideal entry point for short positions.
Key Strategies: "Don't chase long positions during strong resistance; don't sell short during deep declines; follow the trend after a breakout; exercise caution in controlling the market."
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+OJSbWQ6F4KM2Mzk1
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.