XAUUSD – H4 Structural Outlook

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Hello traders 👋,
We’re navigating a tight structure on H4, with gold trading around the 3335 pivot area. Let’s map the main institutional footprints shaping the market.

🔸 Macro Context

Markets remain highly reactive to USD strength, yields, and Fed policy expectations. Gold has been caught between safe-haven demand and a resilient dollar. With FOMC minutes and inflation data ahead, volatility and decisive breakouts are likely.

🔸 Bias

The current H4 structure leaves no fixed bias.

Holding above 3348–3360 supply opens room toward deeper premium zones (3380–3405).

Slipping under 3300–3280 demand exposes broader discount territory.

Patience is key here: let structure confirm before leaning bullish or bearish.

📌 Structural Supply Zones (Premium Side)

“Upper Weekly Supply” – 3439 → 3350
Large untouched weekly OB, origin of the last bearish drive.
Holds liquidity above recent highs.
Role: macro ceiling, where bears could reinforce.

“Mid-Supply Trap” – 3405 → 3380
Defined H4 OB in premium.
Fresh, partially tapped.
Role: intermediate rejection zone, where sellers may step in early.

“Immediate Supply Cap” – 3360 → 3348
Nearest clean OB above price.
Backed by imbalance + inducement.
Role: short-term resistance lid – could cap retracements.

📌 Structural Demand Zones (Discount Side)

“Protective Demand Floor” – 3300 → 3280
Fresh untested OB right below spot.
Confluence with gap fill + early discount.
Role: first defensive layer for bulls.

“Swing Demand Base” – 3260 → 3240
Clean H4 OB, fully intact.
Supported by liquidity beneath.
Role: major buy zone for continuation.

“Deep Weekly Demand” – 3180 → 3160
Untouched weekly OB, extreme discount.
Role: ultimate liquidity magnet for long-term positioning.

🔸 Extended Context (secondary footprints)

3328–3312 → Micro demand (reactive but weak).

3295 → Minor continuation demand (aligned with EMA50).

3275–3240 → Historical demand block (already partially mitigated).

3235–3210 → Discount FVG (liquidity cluster).

3200–3150 → Wick-driven liquidity pool.

3135–3120 → Weekly higher-low demand.

These remain relevant as broader roadmap markers but are not as dominant as the six primary structural zones listed above.

🔸 Conclusion & Action Plan

Gold is currently boxed between Immediate Supply Cap (3360–3348) and Protective Demand Floor (3300–3280).

A clean break above 3360 reopens 3380–3405.

A slip under 3280 sharpens the path toward 3240 and potentially 3180 in deeper discount.

Sniper entries will need confirmation from lower timeframes (M30–M15) inside these macro footprints.

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📌 Disclosure:
Outlook is based on Trade Nation data feed. Educational only – not financial advice.

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