Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Long
Updated

Will CPI data boost gold to 3,400?

191
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💡Message Strategy

Gold prices rebounded modestly in the Asian session, supported by a weaker dollar and safe-haven demand. The market is currently focusing on the upcoming June CPI data from the United States, and investors are reassessing whether the Federal Reserve may start a rate cut cycle this year.

The overall CPI (year-on-year) is expected to grow by 2.7%, and the core CPI may reach 3.0%. If the data is lower than expected, it will strengthen the market's bet on a rate cut in September, which is bearish for the dollar and bullish for gold.

The current market has expected that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is about 60%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut before the end of the year is about 50%.

📊Technical aspects

Gold price (XAU/USD) maintains a bullish structure as a whole and is currently testing the key resistance level of $3365. If it can effectively break through this area, it will open up the upside, with the target pointing to $3400 or even $3435.

On the daily chart, MACD maintains a positive opening, and the momentum indicator shows that buying is still active, and the short-term trend is to continue to rise. On the contrary, if the gold price is blocked near 3365-3370, it may fall back to the support area of 3340 US dollars. Further support is near 3326 and 3300 US dollars, which is still regarded as a potential area for bargain hunting.

💰Strategy Package

Long Position:3345-3355,SL:3335,Target: 3380-3400
Trade active
Gold breaks through 3370 and is expected to hit 3400

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