XAUUSD 01 July - Price pushing into premium zone

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🔹 Macro Structure:
Gold has successfully broken structure (BOS) after forming a bullish shift in market structure (MSS) around the 326x – 327x zone.

Current price action is respecting internal bullish order flow, with higher highs and higher lows being maintained.

Breakout above 3300 psychological level + recent BOS confirms bullish intent.

🔹 Liquidity Map:
Buy-side liquidity is still resting above 3350 and into the strong OB at 3388, where a potential sell-side reaction could occur.

Sell-side liquidity below 3267 has not been swept recently, meaning deeper retracements may still occur after internal liquidity is cleared.


🔹 Expectation:
Current wave is likely in impulse phase (Wave 3 → Wave 5) aiming for 3388 OB.

A retracement into the discount zone (3301 – 3303 OB) is ideal for a continuation trade.

Watch for bearish signs near 3388 – this zone aligns with high liquidity, strong OB, and trendline confluence.

🔵 BUY SETUP (Retracement entry – continuation)
Buy Zone: 3301 – 3303 OB

Entry Trigger: Bullish engulfing / FVG fill

Stop Loss: Below 3297 (below recent swing low)

Targets: 3306 – 3310 – 3315 – 3320 – 3330 – 3346 – 3388

🔴 SELL SETUP (Reversal entry – premium zone)
Sell Zone: 3348 – 3350 (mitigation area)

Entry Trigger: CHoCH + bearish rejection wick

Stop Loss: Above 3354

Targets: 3344 – 3340 – 3335 – 3325 – 3310 – 3300

✅ Alternative Entry (Low sweep)
Buy Limit: 3270 – 3267 (deep OB + SSL zone)

SL: 3262

TP: 3280 – 3290 – 3300 – 3315+


⏳ Wait for price to confirm intention via structure + liquidity reaction before entering trades.
🧠 SMC traders: focus on manipulation zones, OBs, and internal BOS for precision entries.

Note
snapshot

🟣 Why Elise Re-Entered a SELL at 3356 and Took 120 Pips

1️⃣ Macro Reason – USD Strengthens Slightly After JOLTS & ISM Data
Despite softer expectations, the US JOLTS Job Openings came in stronger than forecast (7.77M vs 7.32M), indicating a still-resilient labour market. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.0, reflecting a potential bottoming in manufacturing sentiment.

This provided mild support to the USD, triggering a short-term reversal in XAUUSD after a strong bullish impulse.

As a result, gold struggled to sustain above the 3355–3360 zone and showed signs of exhaustion.

2️⃣ Technical Reason #1 – Liquidity Grab + Weak High Rejection
On the H1 chart:

Price engineered liquidity above previous highs (3355–3360).

A clear reaction from the Weak High zone confirms it was a liquidity sweep rather than a breakout.

This setup aligns with a "Buy to Sell" Smart Money Concept, where price grabs liquidity before reversing into premium short zones.

3️⃣ Technical Reason #2 – Entry Confirmation at Small Block Reaction Zone
After liquidity was taken, price returned to a small block reaction zone below the trendline.

The structure break and retest (CHoCH + BOS) confirm a bearish shift in order flow.

Elise re-entered confidently at 3356, with TP based on the liquidity void towards 323x, capturing 120+ pips.

✅ Summary
This was a textbook SMC + fundamental alignment setup:

USD slightly strengthened after US data

Gold hit a clear liquidity grab zone

Confirmed rejection + block reaction provided high-RR re-entry for the short

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