1. Momentum Analysis
• D1 Timeframe: Momentum is declining → the downtrend remains intact. It may take another 2–3 daily candles for price to reach the oversold zone and potentially reverse.
• H4 Timeframe: Momentum is rising → from now until the U.S. session, price may either retrace upwards or move sideways.
• H1 Timeframe: Momentum is preparing to turn down → a minor pullback could occur in the short term, so this move should be monitored.
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2. Elliott Wave Structure
• The green wave structure in the form of an ending diagonal may have been completed. This could mean that Wave 5 or Wave C (black) has formed.
• Personally, I do not want to see the Green 5-Wave Structure end with an ending diagonal at this stage because:
o If this is an impulsive uptrend structure, we are only at Wave 1 of the larger degree.
o An ending diagonal in Wave 5 (black) indicates weak buying pressure, which is not ideal when price hasn’t broken the previous high to confirm a new trend → increasing the probability that this is a corrective wave.
• Looking at the current downward wave structure, I tentatively label it as five black waves 1-2-3-4-5. The current slight rebound is expected to be Wave 4, which could take the form of either a Flat or Triangle.
• Wave 4 targets:
1. 3358
2. 3364
• If price breaks 3381, the current 1-2-3-4-5 bearish count will be invalidated (Wave 4 would overlap Wave 1). In that case, the structure could turn into a corrective ABC or a new 5-wave advance.
• With a Wave 4 target at 3364, the projected Wave 5 target would be 3323.
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3. Combining Momentum & Wave Structure
• D1 downtrend → supports the scenario of another drop, forming Wave 5.
• H4 rising + H1 declining → could indicate Wave 4 forming as a triangle, with the key signal being that the current drop does not break 3342.
o If 3342 breaks, Wave 5 may already be in play, targeting 3323.
• Since H4 momentum is still rising, there remains a chance that price breaks above 3381, which would require a full recount—possibly turning into an ABC correction or a 5-wave rally.
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4. Trading Plan
• If Wave 4 forms as a triangle → the 3358 area is a good sell zone, or wait for a breakout below 3342.
• Limit Sell Order:
o Entry: 3364 – 3366
o SL: 3374
o TP1: 3342
o TP2: 3333
o TP3: 3323
Trade active
XAUUSD Analysis Update• Price has broken below the 3342 zone, confirming that Wave 5 has formed.
• Therefore, the Sell order at 3364 – 3366 is no longer valid.
• H4 momentum is preparing to turn downward, so for now we will focus on watching the 3323 zone for a potential Buy setup.
Trade Plan
• Buy Zone: 3324 – 3322
• SL: 3314
• TP1: 3342
• TP2: 3364
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.