Definitive Micro-Analysis & Actionable Forecast: XAUUSD

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High-Level Strategy (Monthly/Weekly/Daily Recap)

Overall Market Condition: The primary trend has shifted from Bullish to Bearish/Corrective due to the Monthly Bearish Engulfing and Weekly Three Black Crows patterns.

Immediate Tactical Bias: The Daily Bullish Harami pattern strongly indicates a pause in the downtrend and the high probability of a short-term corrective rally (a "bounce").

Our Goal: To map out the entry, targets, and invalidation levels for this anticipated bounce.

Deep Dive: The Lower Timeframes (4H, 1H, 30M, 15M, 5M)

Consolidation After the Low (4H & 1H):

Candlestick Reading: As observed, after the low was made (~2318), the price action on the 1H and 4H charts has stopped making new lows. Instead, it is building a base, characterized by a series of Dojis and Spinning Tops. This is a classic sign of indecision and absorption, where selling pressure is drying up and buyers are beginning to tentatively step in. This is the "coiling spring" phase before the bounce.

The Trigger (15M & 5M):

Candlestick Reading: On the 15M and 5M charts, we are looking for the very first sign that buyers are taking control. The ideal trigger would be a clear, small-scale Bullish Engulfing or Tweezer Bottom pattern forming at the bottom of this consolidation range. As of the last candle on the 5M chart, we see a small green candle attempting to move up, but the trigger is not yet confirmed.

The Full Storyboard: From Entry to Exit with Price Levels

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I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work.

Regards,
Shunya Trade
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