Key fundamental drivers
- Middle East tensions and nuclear negotiations Despite the ongoing tensions, Iran's signal of restarting nuclear talks has reduced risk aversion, triggering an intraday sell-off in gold, and the market has digested the reduced possibility of escalation of the conflict. The turbulent situation in the Middle East remains a trigger for market volatility, and any downgrade/escalation signals may trigger sharp fluctuations in gold prices.
- Fed policy and rate cut bets The Fed kept interest rates unchanged this week, but Powell's "data-dependent" stance has raised market expectations for a September rate cut to 60%. A dovish meeting statement could push gold prices above $3,400, while a delayed rate cut signal could drag gold prices to $3,350.
Short-term outlook
In the short term, gold prices may fluctuate between $3,350 and $3,450, and a breakthrough depends on:
- Upside catalyst: Escalating tensions in the Middle East + weak retail sales data may push gold prices to $3,450.
- Downside risks: Fed hawkish signals + fading geopolitical risks could push prices to $3,300.
Key event risks
- June 19: Fed policy meeting (expected to be dovish)
- June 21: US CPI data (inflation indicator to measure the timing of rate cuts)
- Middle East situation: progress in nuclear negotiations and conflict dynamics
💰Strategy Package
Set gold price:
🔥Sell gold area: 3390-33396 SL 3400
TP1: 3380 US dollars
TP2: 3375 US dollars
🔥Buy gold area: $3374-$3366 SL $3360
TP1: 3390 US dollars
TP2: 3400 US dollars
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.