Gold Bull Trap and Technical Analysis Outlook (Daily)

Definition: A bull trap occurs when price breaks above resistance (luring bulls) but reverses sharply downward.

Current Evidence:

• Price Action: Gold rallied to $3397.02 but shows exhaustion signs (e.g., long upper wicks on 4H/daily candles).
  
• Volume & VWAP: Declining volume on the breakout + price now below VWAP on 4H charts suggests weak follow-through.
  
• Divergence: Daily RSI (14) at 68 but curling downward while price made a higher high – bearish divergence.
  
• Conclusion: High risk of a bull trap if price closes below $3385 (key support).
  

• 4H: Bearish Engulfing at $3397.02 signals rejection of highs.
  
• 1H: Dark Cloud Cover below $3400 confirms bull trap.
  
• 30M/15M: Shooting Stars at $3395 indicate exhaustion.
  
• 5M: Three Black Crows pattern suggests strong bearish momentum.
  
• Outlook: Bull trap confirmed if $3390 breaks.
  
• Swing (4H-Monthly)
  

• Daily: Gravestone Doji at $3397.02 warns of trend exhaustion.
  
• Weekly: Bearish Harami after 3-week rally signals distribution.
  
• Monthly: Long-legged Doji at all-time highs ($3400) indicates indecision.
  2. Harmonic Patterns

• Intraday
  
• 4H/1H: Bearish Butterfly completing at $3397.02 (D-point).
  
• PRZ: $3390–$3400 (127.2% XA + 161.8% BC).
  
• 30M: Bullish Crab forming at $3370 (secondary setup).
  
• Swing
  
• Daily: Bearish Gartley near $3400 (78.6% XA retracement).
  
• Weekly: Potential Bullish Bat at $3350 if correction extends.
  3. Elliott Wave Theory
• Intraday
  
• 4H: Wave 5 of impulse cycle peaked at $3397.02.
  
• Structure: Completed 5-wave sequence from $3300 → $3397.02.
  
• Corrective Phase: ABC pullback targeting $3350 (Wave A).
  
• 1H: Sub-wave (v) ending with RSI divergence.
  
• Swing
  
• Daily: Wave 3 of primary bull cycle nearing completion at $3400.
  
• Weekly: Wave (iii) of larger impulse, expecting Wave (iv) correction to $3300.
  
• Monthly: Wave V of multi-year bull run, nearing major resistance at $3400.
  4. Wyckoff Theory
• Intraday
  
• Phase: Distribution (after markup from $3300 → $3397.02).
  
• Signs: High volume at $3397.02 (supply), failed upthrust above $3400.
  
• Schematic: Phase C (markdown) initiating.
  
• Swing
  
• Daily: Late Markup → Distribution at $3400.
  
• Weekly: Accumulation completed at $3200; now in Markup but showing signs of exhaustion.
  

• Time Theory
  
• Intraday: Key reversal windows:
  
• UTC+4: 08:00–10:00 (resistance test), 14:00–16:00 (trend reversal).
  
• Swing:
  
• Daily: 12th Aug (4 days from close) for time squaring.
  
• Weekly: 16th Aug (1 week) for cycle turn.
  
• Square of 9
  
• $3397.02 → Resistance Angles:
  
• 0° ($3400), 90° ($3420), 180° ($3450).
  
• Support: 45° ($3350), 315° ($3300).
  
• Angle Theory
  
• 4H Chart: 1x1 Gann Angle (45°) from $3300 low at $3350. Price overextended.
  
• Daily Chart: 2x1 Angle (63.75°) at $3397.02 acting as resistance.
  
• Squaring of Price & Time
  
• Price Range: $3300 → $3397.02 (97.02 points).
  
• Time Squaring: 97 hours from $3300 low → $3400 resistance.
  
• Ranges in Harmony
  
• Primary Range: $3300–$3450 (150 points).
  
• 50% Retracement: $3375 (critical support).
  
• 61.8% Retracement: $3350.
  
• Secondary Range: $3350–$3400 (50 points).
  
• Price & Time Forecasting
  
• Intraday Targets:
  
• Short-Term: $3350 (61.8% Fib).
  
• Extension: $3300 (Gann 45° angle).
  
• Swing Targets:
  
• Weekly: $3300 (Wave (iv) target).
  
• Monthly: $3200 (38.2% retracement of entire bull run).
  

• Intraday (4H)
  
• Cloud (Kumo): Price below Kumo (bearish).
  
• Tenkan-sen: $3390 (flat, resistance).
  
• Kijun-sen: $3375 (support).
  
• Chikou Span: Below price (confirms bearish momentum).
  
• Swing (Daily)
  
• Cloud: Thick cloud resistance at $3400–$3420.
  
• Tenkan/Kijun: Bearish crossover at $3390.
  

• Intraday
  
• RSI (14): 68 (4H) → Overbought; divergence at highs.
  
• Bollinger Bands: Price tagging upper band ($3400); contraction signals volatility.
  
• VWAP: $3380 (acting as dynamic resistance).
  
• Moving Averages:
  
• 50 SMA: $3350 (support).
  
• 200 EMA: $3300 (major support).
  
• Swing
  
• Daily RSI: 72 (overbought, divergence).
  
• Weekly BB: Upper band at $3420 (resistance).
  
• Monthly VWAP: $3200 (major support).
  
• 200 WMA: $3100 (long-term bull support).
  
• Synthesized Forecast
  
• Intraday (Next 24H)
  
• Bearish Scenario (High Probability):
  
• Trigger: Break below $3390 (1H close).
  
• Targets: $3350 (T1), $3300 (T2).
  
• Timeline: 8–12 hours (UTC+4 10:00–14:00).
  
• Bullish Scenario (Low Probability):
  
• Trigger: Sustained close above $3400.
  
• Target: $3420 (Gann 90° angle).
  
• Swing (1–4 Weeks)
  
• Bearish Scenario:
  
• Targets: $3300 (Wave (iv)), $3200 (38.2% retracement).
  
• Timeline: 5–10 trading days.
  
• Bullish Scenario:
  
• Trigger: Close above $3420.
  
• Target: $3450 (Gann 180° angle).