Gold market shines bright in first half of 2025, with nearly 25 percent year-to-date gain, which becomes one of the best start of the year in history ever following 1H 2016 (became a launching pad for Gold to more than Triple in price over next decade) and 1H 1973 (where Gold bugs sharply skyrocketed to infinity and beyond, printed more than 10x over next decade).
The gold spot market in July 2025 is shaped by both fundamental and technical factors supporting a cautiously bullish outlook.
Fundamental perspectives
Technical perspectives
In summary, gold’s fundamentals remain robust due to macroeconomic and geopolitical drivers, while technicals point to consolidation with potential for renewed upward moves in the July 2025 spot market.
--
Best #GODL wishes,
PandorraResearch Team 😎
The gold spot market in July 2025 is shaped by both fundamental and technical factors supporting a cautiously bullish outlook.
Fundamental perspectives
- Were you ready or not, Gold prices have surged significantly in 2025, driven by persistent global uncertainties including geopolitical conflicts (e.g., Middle East tensions), trade disputes, and inflation concerns.
- Central banks, notably the Federal Reserve, are expected to cut interest rates later in 2025, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, a non-yielding asset. This monetary easing alongside continued inflation worries and safe-haven demand underpins strong gold fundamentals.
- Major financial institutions like J.P. Morgan and UBS forecast gold prices averaging around $3,500–$3,675 per ounce in late 2025, with potential to reach $4,000/oz by mid-2026.
- Central bank gold purchases and diversification away from US dollar assets also support demand.
Technical perspectives
- Technically, gold has experienced volatile but mostly sideways trading in a roughly $300 range around $3,200–$3,500 since mid-2025, reflecting consolidation after a strong rally earlier in the year.
- Key support lies near $3,000 and $3,200 levels (125-Day, or 6-Month SMA), with resistance around $3,500 to $3,800. Indicators such as moving averages and RSI suggest an upward trend with possible short-term corrections.
- A breakout above $3,500 could trigger further gains toward $3,800, while a drop below $3,200 may lead to testing $3,000 support.
- Overall, July is expected to see continued range-bound trading amid new external uncertainties, with bullish momentum intact.
In summary, gold’s fundamentals remain robust due to macroeconomic and geopolitical drivers, while technicals point to consolidation with potential for renewed upward moves in the July 2025 spot market.
--
Best #GODL wishes,
PandorraResearch Team 😎
Trade active
July 1, 2025👉
XAUUSD Gold market finished the 1st half of 2025 with a gain of +25.87 percent, above the mark of 3'300 US dollars per ounce.And this becomes historically one of the strongest returns in the entire modern history of the Gold market, after the 1st half of 1972 (Vietnam War, gold added +48.12% in the first 6 months of 1972) and the 1st half of 1973 (Arab-Israeli War, Oil Crisis, gold added +89.49% in the first 6 months of 1973).
👉 Gold is also supported by the slumping dollar
DXY , crashing to new multi-year lows, amid concerns about the ballooning U.S. government deficit as investors eye the progress of a massive tax cut and spending bill slowly making its way through the Senate.👉 Uncertainty surrounding trade deals with major countries has also supported gold. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose a new level of tariffs on Japan, just a week before the July 9 deadline to reinstate higher tariffs.
👉 Additionally, rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of this year and next year have continued to bolster gold’s appeal.
👉 The geopolitical environment also remains challenging.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.