Gold (XAUUSD) hit yesterday the bottom of the Channel Down pattern that started after the July 20 High. This is a short-term buy signal targeting its top (Lower Highs) but on the long-term Gold has been on a downtrend since the May 04 All Time High (ATH).
Following the rise on the June 29 Low, Gold was still on a long-term uptrend, supported by a Higher Lows trend-line. That trend-line broke after both the US10Y (blue trend-line) and the DXY (green trend-line) invalidated their bearish patterns (US10Y broke above its 4.070 Resistance, DXY broke above its Lower Highs trend-line) and both entered Channel Up formations. Since Gold is for the most part negatively correlated to the two, it should be no surprise that it started the Channel Down we discussed out at the same time.
Realistically we can only expect a long-term bullish reversal on Gold after the Channel Down patterns of the DXY and US10Y break downwards and mostly the latter, which as you see is more tightly correlated to Gold. Until then, a potential bottom rebound can only be a short-term buy signal for Gold.
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Following the rise on the June 29 Low, Gold was still on a long-term uptrend, supported by a Higher Lows trend-line. That trend-line broke after both the US10Y (blue trend-line) and the DXY (green trend-line) invalidated their bearish patterns (US10Y broke above its 4.070 Resistance, DXY broke above its Lower Highs trend-line) and both entered Channel Up formations. Since Gold is for the most part negatively correlated to the two, it should be no surprise that it started the Channel Down we discussed out at the same time.
Realistically we can only expect a long-term bullish reversal on Gold after the Channel Down patterns of the DXY and US10Y break downwards and mostly the latter, which as you see is more tightly correlated to Gold. Until then, a potential bottom rebound can only be a short-term buy signal for Gold.
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** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! **
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.