XAU/USD 4H Market Analysis
Market Structure: Gold has been in a mild uptrend on the 4‑hour chart, making higher lows and highs since early June. The recent swing high was around ~$3,428 (mid-June), and price has pulled back toward the rising support line near ~$3,373.
A break above the recent high (around $3,404–$3,428) would continue the bull trend; conversely, a drop below the ~3,373 trendline/50% Fib level would signal a bearish turn.
In other words, bulls remain in control as long as ~$3,373 holds – breaking that would threaten lower support around ~$3,338.
Overall Bias: Moderately bullish on 4H. Gold is respecting its rising trendline and 50-period EMA, and analysts note that holding above ~$3,373 keeps the uptrend intact.
Momentum (MACD) is neutral to slightly bearish short-term, so we expect consolidations and range bounces more than a reversal.
In summary, assume an upward bias while price stays above key support near $3,370–$3,380; a firm break below would flip bearish.
Key SMC/Zones:
Price is currently in a range/consolidation roughly between $3,370 and $3,400.
Important zones include:
Demand (Support) Zone:
~$3,368–$3,378 — this 50% Fib retracement area has been defended as a bullish order block.
Below that, stronger supports sit near ~$3,354 and $3,333.
Supply (Resistance) Zone:
~$3,395–$3,415 — a cluster of swing highs and Fib levels. Analysts highlight $3,395, $3,412, $3,435 and even $3,450 as major resistance barriers.
In particular, the $3,400 level is a known psychological and technical ceiling.
Trendlines/BOS: The rising 4H trendline (currently near $3,370–$3,380) is key support.
A break of structure (BOS) below that line would be a bearish Change-of-Character. Similarly, the prior swing low around $3,373 is a flip zone – bulls want to keep that hold.
Liquidity: Stop-loss/liquidation clusters may lie just above recent highs ($3,428–$3,450) and just below recent lows ($3,338–$3,354). For example, stops above $3,428 could fuel a rally if hit, and stops below $3,338 could accelerate a drop.
In short, high-probability zones on the 4H chart are around ~$3,370 (demand/support) and ~$3,400 (supply/resistance).
We’ll look for trades that align with that structure (see setups below).
1H Trade Setups (Aligned with 4H Bias)
Long around $3,370–3,375 (Buy Dip to Demand Zone) –
Entry: ~3,370–3,375 (green zone). Stop: ~$3,365 (≈$5 below zone). Take-Profit: $3,380 first, then $3,390–$3,400.
Reason: This zone is a 4H demand area (50% Fib + order block) and coincides with the rising 4H trendline.
Price has repeatedly bounced here, so a bullish reversal is likely.
Trigger: Look for a bullish 1H signal (e.g. engulfing or pin bar) at ~3,370–3,375, or a break of the short-term 1H down-structure.
Entry on such a signal would target a retest of the mid-range (~3,380) and beyond toward resistance.
Short around $3,395–3,400 (Sell Rally to Supply) –
Entry: ~3,395–3,400 (red zone). Stop: ~$3,405 (≈$5 above zone). Take-Profit: $3,375 first, then $3,365.
Reason: This area is a clear 4H supply zone (near multiple Fibonacci levels/resistance).
It’s just below the $3,400 psychological barrier. A failure or bearish reversal here would likely send price back toward the demand zone below.
Trigger: Watch for a bearish 1H candle or a break of the short-term 1H up-structure in the 3,395–3,400 range. A clear rejection (e.g. bearish engulfing or strong wick) would be the signal to enter short.
(Note: If price breaks cleanly above $3,405–3,410 instead, a bullish continuation trade would then be favored, targeting $3,415+.)
Takeaway: Trade gold with the 4H structure in mind. With price above the ~$3,370 trend support, favor longs on pullbacks into that demand zone and shorts only at proven supply near $3,400. Always use a tight ~$5 stop beyond each zone and scale out at logical pivot levels to manage risk.
Market Structure: Gold has been in a mild uptrend on the 4‑hour chart, making higher lows and highs since early June. The recent swing high was around ~$3,428 (mid-June), and price has pulled back toward the rising support line near ~$3,373.
A break above the recent high (around $3,404–$3,428) would continue the bull trend; conversely, a drop below the ~3,373 trendline/50% Fib level would signal a bearish turn.
In other words, bulls remain in control as long as ~$3,373 holds – breaking that would threaten lower support around ~$3,338.
Overall Bias: Moderately bullish on 4H. Gold is respecting its rising trendline and 50-period EMA, and analysts note that holding above ~$3,373 keeps the uptrend intact.
Momentum (MACD) is neutral to slightly bearish short-term, so we expect consolidations and range bounces more than a reversal.
In summary, assume an upward bias while price stays above key support near $3,370–$3,380; a firm break below would flip bearish.
Key SMC/Zones:
Price is currently in a range/consolidation roughly between $3,370 and $3,400.
Important zones include:
Demand (Support) Zone:
~$3,368–$3,378 — this 50% Fib retracement area has been defended as a bullish order block.
Below that, stronger supports sit near ~$3,354 and $3,333.
Supply (Resistance) Zone:
~$3,395–$3,415 — a cluster of swing highs and Fib levels. Analysts highlight $3,395, $3,412, $3,435 and even $3,450 as major resistance barriers.
In particular, the $3,400 level is a known psychological and technical ceiling.
Trendlines/BOS: The rising 4H trendline (currently near $3,370–$3,380) is key support.
A break of structure (BOS) below that line would be a bearish Change-of-Character. Similarly, the prior swing low around $3,373 is a flip zone – bulls want to keep that hold.
Liquidity: Stop-loss/liquidation clusters may lie just above recent highs ($3,428–$3,450) and just below recent lows ($3,338–$3,354). For example, stops above $3,428 could fuel a rally if hit, and stops below $3,338 could accelerate a drop.
In short, high-probability zones on the 4H chart are around ~$3,370 (demand/support) and ~$3,400 (supply/resistance).
We’ll look for trades that align with that structure (see setups below).
1H Trade Setups (Aligned with 4H Bias)
Long around $3,370–3,375 (Buy Dip to Demand Zone) –
Entry: ~3,370–3,375 (green zone). Stop: ~$3,365 (≈$5 below zone). Take-Profit: $3,380 first, then $3,390–$3,400.
Reason: This zone is a 4H demand area (50% Fib + order block) and coincides with the rising 4H trendline.
Price has repeatedly bounced here, so a bullish reversal is likely.
Trigger: Look for a bullish 1H signal (e.g. engulfing or pin bar) at ~3,370–3,375, or a break of the short-term 1H down-structure.
Entry on such a signal would target a retest of the mid-range (~3,380) and beyond toward resistance.
Short around $3,395–3,400 (Sell Rally to Supply) –
Entry: ~3,395–3,400 (red zone). Stop: ~$3,405 (≈$5 above zone). Take-Profit: $3,375 first, then $3,365.
Reason: This area is a clear 4H supply zone (near multiple Fibonacci levels/resistance).
It’s just below the $3,400 psychological barrier. A failure or bearish reversal here would likely send price back toward the demand zone below.
Trigger: Watch for a bearish 1H candle or a break of the short-term 1H up-structure in the 3,395–3,400 range. A clear rejection (e.g. bearish engulfing or strong wick) would be the signal to enter short.
(Note: If price breaks cleanly above $3,405–3,410 instead, a bullish continuation trade would then be favored, targeting $3,415+.)
Takeaway: Trade gold with the 4H structure in mind. With price above the ~$3,370 trend support, favor longs on pullbacks into that demand zone and shorts only at proven supply near $3,400. Always use a tight ~$5 stop beyond each zone and scale out at logical pivot levels to manage risk.
Note
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.