Gold price performance
Spot gold remained stable at $3,368.68/oz on Friday (June 21), the lowest level since June 12, and fell 1.8% this week. The settlement price of U.S. gold futures fell 0.7% to $3,385.70/oz.
Geopolitical factors
The market is concerned about the development of the situation in the Middle East. The U.S. government postponed its decision on whether to intervene in the Israel-Iran conflict and said it might support a ceasefire "depending on the situation." At the same time, the U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions on Iranian-related entities and individuals, further exacerbating geopolitical tensions.
Federal Reserve policy impact
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged this week, but the dot plot showed that policymakers had differences on the path of rate cuts:
Seven officials supported maintaining interest rates until the end of the year;
The remaining 12 officials predicted 1-3 rate cuts (25 basis points each time) in 2025, with a median of two rate cuts.
Some officials believe that the trend of inflation falling is good, but tariff policies may bring uncertainty and need to adjust policies with caution.
Economic data and market expectations
The U.S. leading economic indicators fell for the sixth consecutive month in May, triggering a recession signal, but the agency expects the economy to grow moderately in 2025 (GDP growth rate of 1.6%).
A survey by the World Gold Council showed that central banks have strong demand for gold purchases, and 95% of respondents expect central banks to continue to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months.
Institutional views
UBS: Central bank demand, political risks and a weak dollar support gold prices, with a target price of $3,500/ounce at the end of the year.
Citi: Gold prices are expected to fall back to $2,500-2,700/ounce in the second half of 2026 due to weakening investment demand and adjustments to the Fed's policies.
Technical analysis
Gold prices may test the daily Bollinger Band middle track support level of $3,330/ounce next week.
Focus next week
The development of the situation in the Middle East and Iran's response to sanctions;
Speech by Fed officials and changes in policy expectations;
Economic data verifies recession signals.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.