Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Short

XAUUSD 1D Symmetry giving a strong break-out sell signal.

392
Gold (XAUUSD) eventually delivered the expected rejection and pull-back after hitting the 0.786 Fibonacci level as we presented on our December 04 idea (see chart below):

XAUUSD Made new High. Is a rejection inevitable or 2250 is next?


That Monday candle turned out to be a fake-out, liquidating countless of late buy positions at the top as well as stop losses on sells. If we ignore that non-technical candle wick, we can see that the underlying pattern is still a Channel Up on the medium-term, with the price approaching its bottom.

As you might have already observed there is uncanny symmetry between the price action since the September 20 High and the sequence from February 02 until May 16. Both resulted in a Channel Up, which on May 16 broke to the downside and extended the sell-off below the 1D MA50 and to (initially) a -7.20% decline from the Channel Up Lower High.

As a result, if the price breaks below the current Channel Up, we expect not to stop on the 1D MA50 or Support 1 but rather extend towards Support 2. That will be a break-out sell signal for us, targeting 1930.

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