Gold prices converge, 3300-3330 range breaks?
The following current events may become catalysts for gold price changes:
Trump announced on social media that August 1 is the deadline for "reciprocal tariffs" and mentioned that he plans to impose a 200% tariff on medicines and a 50% additional tax on copper.
The market quickly digested the expectation of escalating trade conflicts.
The market expects that Trump may threaten to increase tariffs to force other countries to make concessions, but may eventually extend the deadline.
If the breakdown of negotiations triggers risk aversion, gold prices may hit $3,400; if a small agreement is reached, gold prices may fall back to $3,300.
Focus:
July 11 US CPI data: will verify inflation stickiness and affect the direction of real interest rates.
If CPI is lower than 2.8%, it may strengthen expectations of interest rate cuts and boost gold prices; if it is higher than 3.0%, it may suppress gold performance.
Fed policy signal: The minutes of the June FOMC meeting released on July 11 may provide more details about the internal differences in the interest rate decision.
In addition, Powell's recent statement shows that he is cautious about interest rate cuts. If this position continues, gold prices may temporarily fall into a volatile pattern.
Optimistic scenario (probability 30%): The United States and Japan reach a small agreement, and the price of gold falls back to $3,300;
Pessimistic scenario (probability 50%): The breakdown of negotiations triggers risk aversion, and the price of gold hits $3,400;
Extreme scenario (probability 20%): Trump restarts tariffs on China, triggering the price of gold to hit the previous high of $3,450.
Technical analysis:
As shown in the figure: 4-hour cycle
Gold prices converge, range oscillation: 3,300-3,330
This range will determine the direction of the next trend of gold prices.
As the oscillation space becomes narrower and narrower, it is expected that a new round of market will break out today or at the latest this Friday.
The author believes that if the bullish tone of the macro trend remains unchanged, the price of gold may still break upward.
There is a high probability that the high of $3,400 will be hit again this week.
Of course, we must respect all possible scenarios.
Intraday trading strategy:
Long strategy:
Buy: 3310-3315
Stop loss: 3295
Target: 3330-3350-3400
Short strategy:
Sell: 3325-3330
Stop loss: 3335
Target: 3315-3310-3300-3285-3250
The market is currently volatile, but the focus of gold price trading is on trends rather than prices. When emotions strike, the direction of making money is the key.
The following current events may become catalysts for gold price changes:
Trump announced on social media that August 1 is the deadline for "reciprocal tariffs" and mentioned that he plans to impose a 200% tariff on medicines and a 50% additional tax on copper.
The market quickly digested the expectation of escalating trade conflicts.
The market expects that Trump may threaten to increase tariffs to force other countries to make concessions, but may eventually extend the deadline.
If the breakdown of negotiations triggers risk aversion, gold prices may hit $3,400; if a small agreement is reached, gold prices may fall back to $3,300.
Focus:
July 11 US CPI data: will verify inflation stickiness and affect the direction of real interest rates.
If CPI is lower than 2.8%, it may strengthen expectations of interest rate cuts and boost gold prices; if it is higher than 3.0%, it may suppress gold performance.
Fed policy signal: The minutes of the June FOMC meeting released on July 11 may provide more details about the internal differences in the interest rate decision.
In addition, Powell's recent statement shows that he is cautious about interest rate cuts. If this position continues, gold prices may temporarily fall into a volatile pattern.
Optimistic scenario (probability 30%): The United States and Japan reach a small agreement, and the price of gold falls back to $3,300;
Pessimistic scenario (probability 50%): The breakdown of negotiations triggers risk aversion, and the price of gold hits $3,400;
Extreme scenario (probability 20%): Trump restarts tariffs on China, triggering the price of gold to hit the previous high of $3,450.
Technical analysis:
As shown in the figure: 4-hour cycle
Gold prices converge, range oscillation: 3,300-3,330
This range will determine the direction of the next trend of gold prices.
As the oscillation space becomes narrower and narrower, it is expected that a new round of market will break out today or at the latest this Friday.
The author believes that if the bullish tone of the macro trend remains unchanged, the price of gold may still break upward.
There is a high probability that the high of $3,400 will be hit again this week.
Of course, we must respect all possible scenarios.
Intraday trading strategy:
Long strategy:
Buy: 3310-3315
Stop loss: 3295
Target: 3330-3350-3400
Short strategy:
Sell: 3325-3330
Stop loss: 3335
Target: 3315-3310-3300-3285-3250
The market is currently volatile, but the focus of gold price trading is on trends rather than prices. When emotions strike, the direction of making money is the key.
💸Free signal:t.me/+-tEkPdw9F0IzOGQx
Enjoy life, enjoy trading
Enjoy life, enjoy trading
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
💸Free signal:t.me/+-tEkPdw9F0IzOGQx
Enjoy life, enjoy trading
Enjoy life, enjoy trading
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.