XAUUSD is under downward pressure, and ended last week's trading session with a decline. With tensions in the Middle East easing slightly and the Federal Reserve giving a hawkish signal, the safe-haven demand in the gold market tends to weaken, and investors' profit-taking intentions increase, these are the main reasons why gold recorded a significant correction this week.Gold prices fell last week as safe-haven demand weakened as tensions in the Middle East temporarily eased. President Trump said he would decide on military action against Iran in the next two weeks, a concession that helped ease fears of an escalation. Although Iran continued to launch missiles at Israel, the situation has not spread. However, the Middle East conflict remains risky and is unlikely to end completely.
Gold prices are under pressure due to the Fed's hawkish tone. Although the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, Chairman Powell warned of inflation risks, especially from Trump's new tax policies. At the same time, Mr. Chris Waller's statement showed that the possibility of a July interest rate cut also depends on the inflation situation, causing market expectations to decrease and negatively affecting gold - a non-interest-bearing asset.
Central banks and institutions maintain bullish medium- and long-term expectations
Despite short-term pressures, most institutions maintain positive medium-term expectations for gold. Goldman Sachs reiterated its target of $4,000/oz by 2025, while Citigroup believes gold could fall below $3,000/oz by 2026.
![GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Jun 23 - Jun 27]](https://tradingview.sweetlogin.com/proxy-s3/t/Tl2ES9QP_mid.png)
Technical Outlook Analysis
XAUUSD Gold has once again bounced from the EMA21 and reached its initial upside target at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement of $3,371, as noted in previous editions. For now, for gold to qualify for its next upside target at the raw price of $3,400, it needs to sustain price action above the 0.236% Fibonacci level, which means the 0.236% Fibonacci level is also the closest resistance at present.
Once gold breaks above the raw price point of $3,400, it will be in a position to continue its short-term rally with a target of around $3,435, rather than the all-time high of $3,500.
In terms of overall structure, gold still has a bullish outlook with the price channel as the main trend and RSI remaining above 50 and well away from the overbought zone, suggesting that there is still plenty of upside ahead.
In the case of a sell-off, if gold is sold below the EMA21, it could test the $3,320 support in the short term, more so the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level converging with the lower edge of the price channel. Therefore, early long positions may be considered in terms of volume as well as protection of open positions.
Finally, technically, gold is still trending with an overall bullish outlook, with notable positions listed as follows.
Support: $3,350 – $3,320 – $3,300
Resistance: $3,371 – $3,400 – $3,435 – $3,500
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3406 - 3404⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3410
→Take Profit 1 3398
↨
→Take Profit 2 3392
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3312 - 3314⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3308
→Take Profit 1 3320
↨
→Take Profit 2 3326
Note
🔴Spot gold prices continued to decline, down 1.00% on the day to $3,333.82 an ounce.Note
Note
🔴Spot gold continued to fall in the afternoon, testing 3316 twice before recovering. Combined with the short-term order trading line, the short-term buy order cost area is mainly concentrated at 3323 and 3320, which can be regarded as the "lifeline" of short-term buy orders.Note
📊 Gold struggles around $3,300: Weak dollar, US-Iran talks and economic data key to directionNote
🔴Gold prices fluctuate ahead of PCE data, amid expectations of Fed rate cuts and easing geopolitical tensions
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🔰| Forex trading
🧩Get an average of 1200 pips per month
🧩Consulting on Risk Management
🧩Account management
🧩Forex signals have a high win rate
🚨🚨🚨FREE SIGNALS: t.me/+8q3AxDD9CsRjYzI1
🧩Get an average of 1200 pips per month
🧩Consulting on Risk Management
🧩Account management
🧩Forex signals have a high win rate
🚨🚨🚨FREE SIGNALS: t.me/+8q3AxDD9CsRjYzI1
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.