Gold is trading in its ascending channel on the four-hour timeframe, above the EMA200 and EMA50. We should wait for consolidation or not above the drawn trend line to determine the future path of gold, which can be entered after its failure in the formed line, and on the other hand, if gold corrects towards the demand zone, it can be purchased in the short term with appropriate risk-reward.
Over the past week, the gold market moved within a narrow, calm range and showed little reaction to encouraging inflation data—until geopolitical developments once again shifted the landscape. Heightened tensions in the Middle East brought safe-haven demand back to the forefront of traders’ minds.
Following initial reports of regional unrest, gold quickly climbed from $3,324 to a weekly high of $3,377. Although the price saw a brief correction down to around $3,345, it resumed its upward momentum and opened Thursday’s trading session just one dollar below the symbolic $3,400 mark.
Rich Checkan, President and CEO of Asset Strategies International, commented on these recent geopolitical developments, stating: “The market’s direction is clear: it’s upward. With tensions rising following Israel’s attack on Iran, there’s no doubt gold will continue its climb next week.”
Darin Newsom, senior analyst at Barchart.com, also pointed to rising risks both domestically and globally: “Gold is on an upward path. Domestic unrest in the U.S., escalating conflict in the Middle East, broad selling of the U.S. dollar by other countries, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady—all support gold’s rise.”
Meanwhile, Daniel Pavilonis, senior broker at RJO Futures, analyzed the simultaneous reactions of gold and oil amid the recent Middle East tensions, looking for clues on their future direction. He explained: “Oil’s behavior can serve as an indicator for gold, as both are seen as inflation hedges and are sensitive to bond yields.”
Surprised that gold hasn’t yet reclaimed its April highs, Pavilonis emphasized: “If tensions escalate further, we could see additional gains. But if Iran moves toward negotiations or a truce, gold could remain elevated but range-bound, similar to the past two months. Breaking previous highs would require a stronger catalyst and a more significant worsening of the crisis.” He noted that while geopolitical tensions are currently the primary driver of gold’s strength, such rallies are typically short-lived.
Pavilonis added: “We saw a similar pattern last April—gold and oil spiked sharply but quickly corrected. Back then, trade war concerns with China persisted, inflation rates had fallen noticeably, and the initial supportive factors for gold gradually faded. Now, once again, a fresh geopolitical shock has emerged that may temporarily drive gold higher.”
After a week where market attention focused mainly on U.S. inflation data, investors’ focus in the coming days will shift to central bank policy decisions and potential signals regarding the future path of interest rates.
The trading week begins Monday with the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index, offering an early view of industrial activity in New York. That same day, the Bank of Japan will announce its latest interest rate decision, potentially setting a new tone for Asian markets and the yen’s value.
On Tuesday, U.S. May retail sales data will be published—a key indicator of consumer strength. Signs of weakness could bolster market expectations for a rate cut.
Wednesday will be the pivotal day, as the Federal Reserve reveals its rate decision. While markets have fully priced in a pause in tightening, attention will focus on Jerome Powell’s remarks for any hints of rate cuts in the coming months. Also on Wednesday, May housing starts data and weekly jobless claims will be released.
With U.S. markets closed Thursday for Juneteenth, the spotlight will shift to monetary policy decisions from the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England, both of which could impact currency market volatility. The week wraps up Friday with the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, a leading gauge closely watched by traders to assess the health of the manufacturing sector in the U.S. Northeast.
Over the past week, the gold market moved within a narrow, calm range and showed little reaction to encouraging inflation data—until geopolitical developments once again shifted the landscape. Heightened tensions in the Middle East brought safe-haven demand back to the forefront of traders’ minds.
Following initial reports of regional unrest, gold quickly climbed from $3,324 to a weekly high of $3,377. Although the price saw a brief correction down to around $3,345, it resumed its upward momentum and opened Thursday’s trading session just one dollar below the symbolic $3,400 mark.
Rich Checkan, President and CEO of Asset Strategies International, commented on these recent geopolitical developments, stating: “The market’s direction is clear: it’s upward. With tensions rising following Israel’s attack on Iran, there’s no doubt gold will continue its climb next week.”
Darin Newsom, senior analyst at Barchart.com, also pointed to rising risks both domestically and globally: “Gold is on an upward path. Domestic unrest in the U.S., escalating conflict in the Middle East, broad selling of the U.S. dollar by other countries, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady—all support gold’s rise.”
Meanwhile, Daniel Pavilonis, senior broker at RJO Futures, analyzed the simultaneous reactions of gold and oil amid the recent Middle East tensions, looking for clues on their future direction. He explained: “Oil’s behavior can serve as an indicator for gold, as both are seen as inflation hedges and are sensitive to bond yields.”
Surprised that gold hasn’t yet reclaimed its April highs, Pavilonis emphasized: “If tensions escalate further, we could see additional gains. But if Iran moves toward negotiations or a truce, gold could remain elevated but range-bound, similar to the past two months. Breaking previous highs would require a stronger catalyst and a more significant worsening of the crisis.” He noted that while geopolitical tensions are currently the primary driver of gold’s strength, such rallies are typically short-lived.
Pavilonis added: “We saw a similar pattern last April—gold and oil spiked sharply but quickly corrected. Back then, trade war concerns with China persisted, inflation rates had fallen noticeably, and the initial supportive factors for gold gradually faded. Now, once again, a fresh geopolitical shock has emerged that may temporarily drive gold higher.”
After a week where market attention focused mainly on U.S. inflation data, investors’ focus in the coming days will shift to central bank policy decisions and potential signals regarding the future path of interest rates.
The trading week begins Monday with the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index, offering an early view of industrial activity in New York. That same day, the Bank of Japan will announce its latest interest rate decision, potentially setting a new tone for Asian markets and the yen’s value.
On Tuesday, U.S. May retail sales data will be published—a key indicator of consumer strength. Signs of weakness could bolster market expectations for a rate cut.
Wednesday will be the pivotal day, as the Federal Reserve reveals its rate decision. While markets have fully priced in a pause in tightening, attention will focus on Jerome Powell’s remarks for any hints of rate cuts in the coming months. Also on Wednesday, May housing starts data and weekly jobless claims will be released.
With U.S. markets closed Thursday for Juneteenth, the spotlight will shift to monetary policy decisions from the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England, both of which could impact currency market volatility. The week wraps up Friday with the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, a leading gauge closely watched by traders to assess the health of the manufacturing sector in the U.S. Northeast.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.