Continue to short gold below 3300
Gold prices fell to a four-week low, but rebounded slightly
Spot gold: Today's lowest hit $3247/oz (the lowest since May 29), and then rebounded to $3296/oz.
Risk aversion cooled, trade easing suppressed gold prices
US-China trade easing: China and the United States reached an agreement on rare earth exports, boosting the stock market (S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs), weakening the safe-haven demand for gold.
G7 tax agreement: Reduce global policy uncertainty, further suppress gold prices.
Trump terminated trade negotiations with Canada and threatened to impose tariffs, which temporarily boosted risk aversion.
Expectations of a Fed rate cut have increased, but short-term hawkish remarks have brought pressure
The market expects a 92.5% probability of a rate cut in September (65-75 basis points for the whole year), but Powell said that the impact of tariffs needs to be waited and see, and the probability of a rate cut in July is only 20%.
Trump said he would appoint a Fed chair who is "willing to cut rates," adding to policy uncertainty.
Geopolitical risks remain
Iran situation: Trump's threat to "bomb Iran again" and abandon sanctions relief has temporarily supported gold prices.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues, but the market has partially digested the risk.
Key technical support and resistance levels
Support:
$3,250 (
$3,200 (if broken, it may fall to $3,120)
Resistance:
$3,280-3,290 (4-hour chart head and shoulders neckline).
$3,306-3,322 (if broken, it may rebound further).
Downside risks:
Trade optimism (US-China trade war, G7 agreement) may continue to suppress safe-haven demand.
If non-farm payrolls are strong this week (released on Thursday), it may push up the dollar and further suppress gold prices.
Upside support:
Geopolitical risks (Iran, Russia-Ukraine conflict) may trigger safe-haven buying.
Fed rate cut expectations still provide long-term support for gold.
Key variables:
July 9 The deadline for US tariff negotiations is on July 15. If no consensus is reached, it may trigger risk aversion in the market.
Fed policy signal: If economic data is weak, expectations of rate cuts may drive gold prices back up.
Technical pattern:
If gold prices hold $3,250, it may rebound to $3,330-3,350.
If it falls below $3,250/3,200, it may fall to $3,120.
Short-term traders: Pay attention to the breakthrough of the $3245-3280 range. If it rebounds to around $3,300, you can consider shorting on rallies. If it falls below $3,245, it may accelerate downward.
Gold prices fell to a four-week low, but rebounded slightly
Spot gold: Today's lowest hit $3247/oz (the lowest since May 29), and then rebounded to $3296/oz.
Risk aversion cooled, trade easing suppressed gold prices
US-China trade easing: China and the United States reached an agreement on rare earth exports, boosting the stock market (S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs), weakening the safe-haven demand for gold.
G7 tax agreement: Reduce global policy uncertainty, further suppress gold prices.
Trump terminated trade negotiations with Canada and threatened to impose tariffs, which temporarily boosted risk aversion.
Expectations of a Fed rate cut have increased, but short-term hawkish remarks have brought pressure
The market expects a 92.5% probability of a rate cut in September (65-75 basis points for the whole year), but Powell said that the impact of tariffs needs to be waited and see, and the probability of a rate cut in July is only 20%.
Trump said he would appoint a Fed chair who is "willing to cut rates," adding to policy uncertainty.
Geopolitical risks remain
Iran situation: Trump's threat to "bomb Iran again" and abandon sanctions relief has temporarily supported gold prices.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues, but the market has partially digested the risk.
Key technical support and resistance levels
Support:
$3,250 (
$3,200 (if broken, it may fall to $3,120)
Resistance:
$3,280-3,290 (4-hour chart head and shoulders neckline).
$3,306-3,322 (if broken, it may rebound further).
Downside risks:
Trade optimism (US-China trade war, G7 agreement) may continue to suppress safe-haven demand.
If non-farm payrolls are strong this week (released on Thursday), it may push up the dollar and further suppress gold prices.
Upside support:
Geopolitical risks (Iran, Russia-Ukraine conflict) may trigger safe-haven buying.
Fed rate cut expectations still provide long-term support for gold.
Key variables:
July 9 The deadline for US tariff negotiations is on July 15. If no consensus is reached, it may trigger risk aversion in the market.
Fed policy signal: If economic data is weak, expectations of rate cuts may drive gold prices back up.
Technical pattern:
If gold prices hold $3,250, it may rebound to $3,330-3,350.
If it falls below $3,250/3,200, it may fall to $3,120.
Short-term traders: Pay attention to the breakthrough of the $3245-3280 range. If it rebounds to around $3,300, you can consider shorting on rallies. If it falls below $3,245, it may accelerate downward.
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Enjoy life, enjoy trading
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
💸Free signal:t.me/+-tEkPdw9F0IzOGQx
Enjoy life, enjoy trading
Enjoy life, enjoy trading
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.