Gold market analysis: Short-term dominant pattern established, rebound high-altitude main tone
Market review and driving factors
Spot gold fell sharply, with a single-day drop of more than 2%, hitting a low of $3295/ounce (a new low since June 9), and finally closed at around $3322. The decline was mainly driven by two factors:
Geopolitical risks cool down: Iran and Israel reach a ceasefire agreement, and market risk aversion demand weakens;
Fed hawkish expectations strengthen: Powell reiterates cautious interest rate cut stance, and the strengthening of the US dollar suppresses gold prices.
Technical analysis: Short-term dominant, rebound under pressure
1. Daily level: Big Yin breaks, strong short momentum
K-line pattern: The daily line closes with a real big Yin line, confirming the short-term short trend, and the price falls below the shock low of the previous two weeks.
Key support: $3295 (yesterday's low) is the last line of defense for bulls. If it is lost, it may further explore the 3280-3270 area.
Resistance level:
3340-3347 USD (top and bottom conversion position + hourly moving average suppression);
3370 USD (yesterday's high point, strong resistance).
2. 4-hour level: oscillating down, limited rebound
Disk pattern: Yesterday showed an oscillating downward rhythm of "Asia session down → rebound → European session continued to fall → US session bottomed out and rebounded", which is in line with the technical correction expectations.
Moving average system: MA5/MA10 dead cross downward, 3340-3347 area constitutes short-term rebound suppression.
MACD indicator: Dead cross with large volume, but the fast and slow lines are close to the oversold area, so be alert to short-term rebound correction.
Trading strategy: rebound high and empty
Short order strategy (main idea):
Entry range: 3342-3347 USD;
Stop loss: 3355 USD (short order invalid if it breaks through);
Target: 3310→3295 (if it breaks through, look at 3280).
Logic: 3347 is the resistance level after the previous low is broken. Combined with the moving average pressure, the rebound to this point can be regarded as an ideal short-selling point.
Long order strategy (short-term rebound):
Prerequisite: If the Asian and European sessions first fall back to 3300-3295 without breaking, you can try long with a light position;
Stop loss: 3288 US dollars;
Target: 3320-3330 (quick in and out).
Key risk reminder
Upward risk: If Powell's speech unexpectedly turns dovish, or the geopolitical situation changes again, the gold price may break through 3355 and rebound to 3370.
Downward risk: If 3295 is lost, it will accelerate the decline to the 3280-3270 support area, and even test the 3250 mark.
Conclusion and operation suggestions
Overall tone: Under the pressure of the big negative line on the daily line, rebound shorting is still the main strategy, focusing on the pressure near 3347.
Asia-Europe session: If it rebounds above 3340 first, short orders can be arranged in batches; if it directly breaks below 3295, short orders can be followed.
US session: Pay attention to Powell's speech and US economic data, and be alert to the intensification of market volatility.
Trade active
The current gold trend is under pressure from the 3335 resistance line above and the 3325 support line below. A narrow horizontal convergence trend is formed in the short term.Combined with the previous trend. Gold is at the end of a downward correction rebound.
It is recommended to focus on high-altitude thinking in operation.
The short-term support below is 3315----3300----3290
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Free Signals：t.me/+WwrJpK6G_U9iM2Qx
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.