XAUUSD Analysis (June 23, 2025)
Overall Bias: Cautiously Bullish. The immediate technical picture on the lower timeframes is bearish, but this is contradicted by an overwhelmingly bullish high-timeframe trend, explosive geopolitical catalysts, and potent astrological alignments pointing to a potential major move higher. The current dip appears to be a pullback before a potential expansion.
Macro-Context (US News & World News):
Fundamental Driver: The dominant factor is the severe escalation in the Middle East, with the US striking Iranian nuclear facilities. This is a classic "risk-off" event that triggers a flight to safety. Gold, as the ultimate safe-haven asset, benefits immensely from this level of geopolitical instability. This factor alone provides a powerful bullish undercurrent.
US Dollar (DXY) Analysis: The DXY is a conflicting factor. It has been weak for most of 2025 but has recently found support and is consolidating. A stronger-than-expected NFP report on June 6 and a Fed reluctant to cut rates are providing the dollar with some strength. Typically, a stronger dollar pressures Gold lower.
Conclusion: We have a direct conflict. A strengthening DXY is bearish for Gold, but a major war involving Iran is profoundly bullish. In this scenario, the fear and uncertainty from the geopolitical crisis are the more powerful, immediate driver. The macro bias is therefore bullish on Gold.
Risk Calculation:
Asset: XAUUSD
Bias: Bullish Reversal
Entry: Look for entry near $3,340 after a 5-minute bullish confirmation candle at the 0.5 Fib support level.
Stop Loss: Place SL below the key Fib level and the low of the confirmation candle, e.g., $3,325.
Risk: $15.
Take Profit (3:1 R:R): $3,340 + ($15 x 3) = $3,385.
Overall Bias: Cautiously Bullish. The immediate technical picture on the lower timeframes is bearish, but this is contradicted by an overwhelmingly bullish high-timeframe trend, explosive geopolitical catalysts, and potent astrological alignments pointing to a potential major move higher. The current dip appears to be a pullback before a potential expansion.
Macro-Context (US News & World News):
Fundamental Driver: The dominant factor is the severe escalation in the Middle East, with the US striking Iranian nuclear facilities. This is a classic "risk-off" event that triggers a flight to safety. Gold, as the ultimate safe-haven asset, benefits immensely from this level of geopolitical instability. This factor alone provides a powerful bullish undercurrent.
US Dollar (DXY) Analysis: The DXY is a conflicting factor. It has been weak for most of 2025 but has recently found support and is consolidating. A stronger-than-expected NFP report on June 6 and a Fed reluctant to cut rates are providing the dollar with some strength. Typically, a stronger dollar pressures Gold lower.
Conclusion: We have a direct conflict. A strengthening DXY is bearish for Gold, but a major war involving Iran is profoundly bullish. In this scenario, the fear and uncertainty from the geopolitical crisis are the more powerful, immediate driver. The macro bias is therefore bullish on Gold.
Risk Calculation:
Asset: XAUUSD
Bias: Bullish Reversal
Entry: Look for entry near $3,340 after a 5-minute bullish confirmation candle at the 0.5 Fib support level.
Stop Loss: Place SL below the key Fib level and the low of the confirmation candle, e.g., $3,325.
Risk: $15.
Take Profit (3:1 R:R): $3,340 + ($15 x 3) = $3,385.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.