August 11 Gold Analysis
⚠️ Key Events
1. The Federal Reserve Chair Succession Turmoil
- On August 10, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bensoner publicly announced that he was searching for a successor to Powell. The new chair must meet three key criteria: overall control, market credibility, and forward-looking decision-making (rather than relying on historical data).
- Trump continues to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates, even threatening Powell with a leadership change. Powell responded forcefully, stating that "monetary policy must be completely depoliticized," but acknowledging that the economic impact of tariffs is still being assessed.
- Market Impact: The Fed's independence faces its most severe challenge in a decade. If Powell leaves early, expectations for aggressive easing will rise, but the risk of political interference will undermine the long-term credibility of the U.S. dollar, which is fundamentally positive for gold.
2. The Impact of the Gold Bar Tariff Policy
- On July 31, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) imposed high tariffs on 1 kg gold bars (the mainstream delivery size on the New York Mercantile Exchange). It is not yet clear whether 400 ounce gold bars in the London market will be exempted. - Supply chain crisis erupts: Global gold flows are hindered, and refiners are considering melting large gold bars into 1-kilogram bars before re-importing them into the US (increasing costs). A former JPMorgan Chase director bluntly stated, "I never thought gold would be affected by tariffs," highlighting market panic.
- Hidden dangers in the futures-spot price gap: Tensions over physical delivery are intensifying. If the policy continues, the gold futures premium (previously reaching $100) may widen again.
📉 Economic Data and Policy Interaction
- Probability of a rate cut soars to 90%:
Trump's pressure coupled with a weakening economy (July's ISM non-manufacturing index of 50.1, below expectations of 51.5) has led Donghai Futures to predict a September rate cut, tipping the balance of Fed independence.
- Tonight's CPI release becomes a key catalyst:
If July's core CPI rises by 0.3% month-over-month as expected, it will reinforce the case for a rate cut. If inflation exceeds expectations due to tariffs, it may temporarily suppress gold prices, but will hardly halt the easing trend.
🧭 Technical Structure and Key Positions
- Daily charts battle for the psychologically important 3400 level: A sharp drop to 3382 in the Asian session preceded a rebound, indicating that the 3380-3400 range is a crucial barrier for both bulls and bears.
- Offensive and Defensive Roadmap:
- Bullish Defense Line: 3355 (20/50-day moving average intersection) → 3279 (100-day moving average)
- Breakout Target: A break above 3400 will challenge 3452 (June peak) → the historically important 3500 level.
- Pattern suggests an imminent market reversal: The weekly "ascending triangle" consolidation is at its final stage. If support at 3370 holds, the medium-term target is $3600.
💡 Trading Strategy: Focus on Policy Fissures and Data Pulses
1. Short-Term Opportunities:
- If the price retraces to 3360-3370 (daily support) before the CPI release, establish a light long position with a stop-loss below 3350, targeting 3408-3417.
- If the price stabilizes above 3400 after the data release, go long, targeting 3450; if it unexpectedly falls below 3350, exit and wait and see.
2. Medium-Term Strategy:
- Gradually establish long positions on pullbacks below 3300, betting on a September rate cut and a political uncertainty premium. "Gold's long-term upward trend remains unchanged"—central bank gold purchases and the weakening US dollar provide solid support.
Trade with caution and manage risk! Wish you a smooth trade!
⚠️ Key Events
1. The Federal Reserve Chair Succession Turmoil
- On August 10, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bensoner publicly announced that he was searching for a successor to Powell. The new chair must meet three key criteria: overall control, market credibility, and forward-looking decision-making (rather than relying on historical data).
- Trump continues to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates, even threatening Powell with a leadership change. Powell responded forcefully, stating that "monetary policy must be completely depoliticized," but acknowledging that the economic impact of tariffs is still being assessed.
- Market Impact: The Fed's independence faces its most severe challenge in a decade. If Powell leaves early, expectations for aggressive easing will rise, but the risk of political interference will undermine the long-term credibility of the U.S. dollar, which is fundamentally positive for gold.
2. The Impact of the Gold Bar Tariff Policy
- On July 31, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) imposed high tariffs on 1 kg gold bars (the mainstream delivery size on the New York Mercantile Exchange). It is not yet clear whether 400 ounce gold bars in the London market will be exempted. - Supply chain crisis erupts: Global gold flows are hindered, and refiners are considering melting large gold bars into 1-kilogram bars before re-importing them into the US (increasing costs). A former JPMorgan Chase director bluntly stated, "I never thought gold would be affected by tariffs," highlighting market panic.
- Hidden dangers in the futures-spot price gap: Tensions over physical delivery are intensifying. If the policy continues, the gold futures premium (previously reaching $100) may widen again.
📉 Economic Data and Policy Interaction
- Probability of a rate cut soars to 90%:
Trump's pressure coupled with a weakening economy (July's ISM non-manufacturing index of 50.1, below expectations of 51.5) has led Donghai Futures to predict a September rate cut, tipping the balance of Fed independence.
- Tonight's CPI release becomes a key catalyst:
If July's core CPI rises by 0.3% month-over-month as expected, it will reinforce the case for a rate cut. If inflation exceeds expectations due to tariffs, it may temporarily suppress gold prices, but will hardly halt the easing trend.
🧭 Technical Structure and Key Positions
- Daily charts battle for the psychologically important 3400 level: A sharp drop to 3382 in the Asian session preceded a rebound, indicating that the 3380-3400 range is a crucial barrier for both bulls and bears.
- Offensive and Defensive Roadmap:
- Bullish Defense Line: 3355 (20/50-day moving average intersection) → 3279 (100-day moving average)
- Breakout Target: A break above 3400 will challenge 3452 (June peak) → the historically important 3500 level.
- Pattern suggests an imminent market reversal: The weekly "ascending triangle" consolidation is at its final stage. If support at 3370 holds, the medium-term target is $3600.
💡 Trading Strategy: Focus on Policy Fissures and Data Pulses
1. Short-Term Opportunities:
- If the price retraces to 3360-3370 (daily support) before the CPI release, establish a light long position with a stop-loss below 3350, targeting 3408-3417.
- If the price stabilizes above 3400 after the data release, go long, targeting 3450; if it unexpectedly falls below 3350, exit and wait and see.
2. Medium-Term Strategy:
- Gradually establish long positions on pullbacks below 3300, betting on a September rate cut and a political uncertainty premium. "Gold's long-term upward trend remains unchanged"—central bank gold purchases and the weakening US dollar provide solid support.
Trade with caution and manage risk! Wish you a smooth trade!
Analyzing gold like it's fine wine — timing is everything.
Join us： t.me/+CW0VWaiEB59hMmJh
Join us： t.me/+CW0VWaiEB59hMmJh
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Analyzing gold like it's fine wine — timing is everything.
Join us： t.me/+CW0VWaiEB59hMmJh
Join us： t.me/+CW0VWaiEB59hMmJh
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.