Gold price range is 3350-3400, brewing direction
In-depth analysis of the gold market in June 2025: the latest developments and tomorrow's trend forecast
As of June 22, 2025:
The international gold market presents the characteristics of "high volatility and upward center movement", and the price continues to fluctuate under the influence of multiple factors.
The latest London spot gold price is around US$3376/ounce, down about 3.5% from the high of US$3500 in early June, but still in the historical high range. , showing strong resistance to decline.
Market sentiment changes:
The current gold market sentiment has shifted from "risk aversion" to "policy wait-and-see", and investors are re-evaluating the Fed's monetary policy path and geopolitical risk premium.
It is worth noting that although short-term risk aversion demand has cooled, long-term supporting factors (such as central bank gold purchases and de-dollarization trends) remain solid, making the gold price correction relatively limited.
Analysis of capital flows:
From the perspective of capital, the market shows obvious differentiation.
On the one hand, the holdings of SPDR, the world's largest gold ETF, have declined slightly recently, indicating that some institutional investors have chosen to take profits;
On the other hand, retail investment demand (gold bars, gold coins) remains strong, and emerging market central banks (especially China and India) continue to increase their gold reserves, providing a solid bottom support for the market.
This game between institutions and retail investors, short-term funds and long-term funds, is an important reason for the current volatility in the gold market.
Geopolitical risk premium remains a key catalyst for short-term gold price fluctuations.
In early June, Israel launched an air strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, which led to a sharp escalation of the situation in the Middle East, pushing gold prices up more than 3.5% in a single week, breaking through $3,440/ounce.
The expectation that the Strait of Hormuz may be closed has further exacerbated market concerns about disruptions in the energy supply chain, stimulating a large amount of safe-haven funds to flow into the gold market.
However, there have been signs of marginal easing in the recent situation:
Israel has revised its hostage negotiation plan, direct conflict between Iran and Israel has been suspended, and the Trump administration has issued a statement on whether to intervene in the conflict (to be decided within two weeks), temporarily alleviating market concerns about a full-scale war.
The fluctuation of this geopolitical tension directly leads to the "ebb but not exit" feature of the gold safe-haven premium.
It is worth noting that geopolitical risks have not completely subsided. The continued conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the uncertainty of the US election, and the "proxy war" (such as the attack on merchant ships in the Red Sea by the Houthi armed forces in Yemen) are still ongoing. These factors may push up the demand for safe-haven again in the future.
The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is another core dimension that affects the gold market.
On June 19, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the upper limit of the federal funds rate at 4.5%, and the policy statement did not release a clear signal of interest rate cuts.
This decision directly stimulated the rapid rise of the US dollar index, and the US Treasury yields rose simultaneously. The market's expectations for "high interest rates to be maintained for a longer period of time" have increased, and gold, as an interest-free asset, has been under obvious short-term pressure.
However, the Fed's statement on "uncertainty in the economic outlook" still leaves room. If the subsequent inflation declines less than expected or the job market cools down, the expectation of interest rate cuts this year may ferment again.
At present, the market's expectations for the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year have dropped from 3 times to 1-2 times
The risk of the US dollar credit system provides long-term support logic for gold.
The scale of US debt has exceeded the 40 trillion US dollar mark, and coupled with the uncertainty of tariff policies, the credit of the US dollar continues to be challenged.
Against this background, the global trend of "de-dollarization" has accelerated, and central banks of various countries have actively increased their gold reserves.
The European Central Bank report shows that gold accounts for 20% of global reserve assets, surpassing the euro to become the second largest reserve asset.
The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 7 consecutive months, with reserves reaching 73.83 million ounces at the end of May. The market speculates that China's hidden gold reserves may exceed 5,000 tons.
This structural change has gradually transformed gold from a simple commodity attribute to a strategic reserve asset of "stateless currency", providing solid support for its long-term value.
Technical analysis and key price levels
Table: Overview of key technical price levels of gold (as of June 22, 2025)
Technical price level type International gold price (US dollars/ounce) Importance
Short-term support level 3350 ★★★★
Key support level 3300 ★★★★★
Medium-term support level 3250-3260 ★★★★
Short-term resistance level 3380-3400 ★★★★
Key resistance level 3450 ★★★★★
Historical resistance level 3500 ★★★
Comprehensive technical analysis shows that gold is in a sensitive window period of "geo-premium fading" and "interest rate cut expectation game".
The breakthrough of key price levels requires triple verification:
1: Technical volume stabilizes
2: Fundamental event driven
3: Fundamental position coordination.
Investors should pay close attention to the breakthrough direction of the core range of 3350-3400 gold prices, which will determine the short-term and even medium-term trend of gold.
The escalation and easing of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East constitute the most significant price driving factor in the gold market in June. The market will pay close attention to the minutes of the July Federal Reserve meeting and the US CPI data, which may become the catalyst for the next wave of gold trends9.
Tomorrow's market Tomorrow's gold market will be affected by the technical key positions, the fermentation of potential events over the weekend, and the adjustment of institutional positions, and the volatility may remain high.
Baseline scenario (probability 55%): Gold prices fluctuate and consolidate in the range of US$3350-3400.
The triggering conditions of this scenario include:
The geopolitical situation has not deteriorated or eased significantly, the market continues to digest the impact of the Fed's "stabilization" policy, and no major economic data is released.
Technical aspects:
The support level of US$3,350 and the resistance level of US$3,400 will constitute the short-term volatility boundary, and bulls and bears may engage in a tug-of-war in this range.
If the gold price sustains above $3,380 (daily bull-bear dividing line), it will show a bullish directional fluctuation and if it falls below $3,360, it will show a bullish directional fluctuation.
In-depth analysis of the gold market in June 2025: the latest developments and tomorrow's trend forecast
As of June 22, 2025:
The international gold market presents the characteristics of "high volatility and upward center movement", and the price continues to fluctuate under the influence of multiple factors.
The latest London spot gold price is around US$3376/ounce, down about 3.5% from the high of US$3500 in early June, but still in the historical high range. , showing strong resistance to decline.
Market sentiment changes:
The current gold market sentiment has shifted from "risk aversion" to "policy wait-and-see", and investors are re-evaluating the Fed's monetary policy path and geopolitical risk premium.
It is worth noting that although short-term risk aversion demand has cooled, long-term supporting factors (such as central bank gold purchases and de-dollarization trends) remain solid, making the gold price correction relatively limited.
Analysis of capital flows:
From the perspective of capital, the market shows obvious differentiation.
On the one hand, the holdings of SPDR, the world's largest gold ETF, have declined slightly recently, indicating that some institutional investors have chosen to take profits;
On the other hand, retail investment demand (gold bars, gold coins) remains strong, and emerging market central banks (especially China and India) continue to increase their gold reserves, providing a solid bottom support for the market.
This game between institutions and retail investors, short-term funds and long-term funds, is an important reason for the current volatility in the gold market.
Geopolitical risk premium remains a key catalyst for short-term gold price fluctuations.
In early June, Israel launched an air strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, which led to a sharp escalation of the situation in the Middle East, pushing gold prices up more than 3.5% in a single week, breaking through $3,440/ounce.
The expectation that the Strait of Hormuz may be closed has further exacerbated market concerns about disruptions in the energy supply chain, stimulating a large amount of safe-haven funds to flow into the gold market.
However, there have been signs of marginal easing in the recent situation:
Israel has revised its hostage negotiation plan, direct conflict between Iran and Israel has been suspended, and the Trump administration has issued a statement on whether to intervene in the conflict (to be decided within two weeks), temporarily alleviating market concerns about a full-scale war.
The fluctuation of this geopolitical tension directly leads to the "ebb but not exit" feature of the gold safe-haven premium.
It is worth noting that geopolitical risks have not completely subsided. The continued conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the uncertainty of the US election, and the "proxy war" (such as the attack on merchant ships in the Red Sea by the Houthi armed forces in Yemen) are still ongoing. These factors may push up the demand for safe-haven again in the future.
The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is another core dimension that affects the gold market.
On June 19, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the upper limit of the federal funds rate at 4.5%, and the policy statement did not release a clear signal of interest rate cuts.
This decision directly stimulated the rapid rise of the US dollar index, and the US Treasury yields rose simultaneously. The market's expectations for "high interest rates to be maintained for a longer period of time" have increased, and gold, as an interest-free asset, has been under obvious short-term pressure.
However, the Fed's statement on "uncertainty in the economic outlook" still leaves room. If the subsequent inflation declines less than expected or the job market cools down, the expectation of interest rate cuts this year may ferment again.
At present, the market's expectations for the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year have dropped from 3 times to 1-2 times
The risk of the US dollar credit system provides long-term support logic for gold.
The scale of US debt has exceeded the 40 trillion US dollar mark, and coupled with the uncertainty of tariff policies, the credit of the US dollar continues to be challenged.
Against this background, the global trend of "de-dollarization" has accelerated, and central banks of various countries have actively increased their gold reserves.
The European Central Bank report shows that gold accounts for 20% of global reserve assets, surpassing the euro to become the second largest reserve asset.
The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 7 consecutive months, with reserves reaching 73.83 million ounces at the end of May. The market speculates that China's hidden gold reserves may exceed 5,000 tons.
This structural change has gradually transformed gold from a simple commodity attribute to a strategic reserve asset of "stateless currency", providing solid support for its long-term value.
Technical analysis and key price levels
Table: Overview of key technical price levels of gold (as of June 22, 2025)
Technical price level type International gold price (US dollars/ounce) Importance
Short-term support level 3350 ★★★★
Key support level 3300 ★★★★★
Medium-term support level 3250-3260 ★★★★
Short-term resistance level 3380-3400 ★★★★
Key resistance level 3450 ★★★★★
Historical resistance level 3500 ★★★
Comprehensive technical analysis shows that gold is in a sensitive window period of "geo-premium fading" and "interest rate cut expectation game".
The breakthrough of key price levels requires triple verification:
1: Technical volume stabilizes
2: Fundamental event driven
3: Fundamental position coordination.
Investors should pay close attention to the breakthrough direction of the core range of 3350-3400 gold prices, which will determine the short-term and even medium-term trend of gold.
The escalation and easing of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East constitute the most significant price driving factor in the gold market in June. The market will pay close attention to the minutes of the July Federal Reserve meeting and the US CPI data, which may become the catalyst for the next wave of gold trends9.
Tomorrow's market Tomorrow's gold market will be affected by the technical key positions, the fermentation of potential events over the weekend, and the adjustment of institutional positions, and the volatility may remain high.
Baseline scenario (probability 55%): Gold prices fluctuate and consolidate in the range of US$3350-3400.
The triggering conditions of this scenario include:
The geopolitical situation has not deteriorated or eased significantly, the market continues to digest the impact of the Fed's "stabilization" policy, and no major economic data is released.
Technical aspects:
The support level of US$3,350 and the resistance level of US$3,400 will constitute the short-term volatility boundary, and bulls and bears may engage in a tug-of-war in this range.
If the gold price sustains above $3,380 (daily bull-bear dividing line), it will show a bullish directional fluctuation and if it falls below $3,360, it will show a bullish directional fluctuation.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
💸Free signal:t.me/+-tEkPdw9F0IzOGQx
Enjoy life, enjoy trading
Enjoy life, enjoy trading
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.