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Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Short
Updated

GOLD (XAUUSD) - THE BIG ABC DOWN

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After the preview idea of the ABC correction (the Gartely pattern) up to 1965 that earned 1000+ pips in both ways (buying the B and selling the C), this idea would shows my bigger ABC Cycle count with shorts target to 1765. In the follow you can see 2 my short ideas on Gold that are still in play. I will update this idea with screeshots of the inner moves count if it will play out well. Good luck! :D
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The potential inner count shows that we would be in a 4th wave, preparing the last impulse down before a rise up: snapshot
snapshot
snapshot so a contracting triangle might be completed with an ABCD corrective 4th wave, target around 1832 then long up tyo 1900?
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we are holding short from 1956; now added shorts at 1884, tgt: 1832 / 1825 for the completition of the last leg down before the correction up: snapshot
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snapshot
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Another contracting triangle. Have we bottomed with this impulse or not? snapshot
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Well, we hedged the position at the break up of 1863 when we saw that 1857 / 61 area did not break down. So, now we have 2 possibile scenarios, the first one is the continuation down at 45 - 32 area before of a bounce up above 1900, like previously mentioned above. The second one is that we are again into a correction and we are going up to 1901 / 1915 area for a C leg like the following draw: snapshot Now we have to see how will react the 1865 pivotal level for a confirmation on the next move, meanwhile we are out watching closely.
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snapshot
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this could be a prediction on the next move: snapshot
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snapshot
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The second possibile scenario with the same targets at 45-32 area is this. Contracting triangle for the 4th wave, the inner count looks good, so if we NOT break up 1883 we probably will be in this situation: snapshot
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updates: snapshot if this channel will be respected we might see 5 waves up for and extended C to 1900 - 20, otherwise if will breaks out of the channel, we might see the prosecution of the contracting triangle (abcde).
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updates: snapshot
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snapshot
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ok, this is how looks at 4hr, seems we are contracting into the white TLs snapshot
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this is my actual count: snapshot
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Daily analysis updates: we are in a new big corrective move inside of a rising channel (or big bear flag) snapshot
Well, so we might are in 2 possibile scenarios:
1) an ABCDE is already completed: snapshot so in this case we could see a continuation down
2) we are only in the completition of a B and we will see a new leg (the C) up to 1905 /1920 area (maybe higher also) before of a new impulse down. According with the inner counts this second case is the most probable in my opinion.
This would be the inner count inside these moves: snapshot as we can see, looks like a 3-3-5 in the first ABC (yellow path), and a 5-3-5 in the second one (green path), so this might make we think to the possibility of an A-B and a missed C so far.
Let's waiting for the next move
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Errata corrige: missed to post the second case, thats it: snapshot
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snapshot
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Trade closed: target reached
snapshot
Trade closed: target reached
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ABCcorrectionEconomic CyclesElliott WaveGoldshortTrend Lines

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ABCcorrectionEconomic CyclesElliott WaveGoldshortTrend Lines
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Related publications

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.