Next week's gold trend analysis strategy:
1. News interpretation: Fed policy and market sentiment dominate the direction
✦ Review of key factors:
The situation in the Middle East has eased
The safe-haven demand for gold has declined, which is bearish for gold prices.
Fed Focus: PCE Price Index
If PCE data rises → Strengthen interest rate hike expectations → Gold prices are under pressure
If personal spending is weak → Interest rate hike expectations slow down → Favorable gold price rebound
Investors' wait-and-see sentiment heats up
→ There is no panic selling in the market, and it tends to fluctuate downward rather than plummet.
2. Technical analysis: Bearish dominance, pay attention to key support areas
Daily structure:
The bearish trend is clear, and the moving average system turns downward;
The price is running near the lower track of the Bollinger band, and there is a suspicion of short-term oversold;
The 3280-3295 area constitutes a pressure zone, which has not been broken after multiple tests.
Key points at the 4-hour level:
A step-down channel is clearly formed;
Support levels gradually move downward, a typical bearish pattern;
Lower support: 3270 → 3263 → 3250-3245
Upper pressure: 3280 → 3300 → 3310
III. Gold trend forecast for next week
📉 Main trend: bearish, short-term or bottoming out
If it falls to the 3245-3250 area, a short-term technical rebound can be expected;
After the rebound, it may be blocked again in the 3280-3295 range, suitable for short selling;
Unless it strongly recovers above 3310, it will be difficult to reverse the downward trend.
IV. Operation strategy suggestions (core)
Sell on highs 3285 - 3295 Stop loss 3310 Target 3255 / 3245 Layout short orders near resistance
Trend bottom-picking 3245 - 3250 Stop loss 3238 Target 3275 / 3280 Oversold rebound expected, try to buy long with a light position
Aggressive short selling near 3310 Stop loss above 3336 Target 3280 / 3263 Top and bottom conversion resistance level, if the test is not broken, short
V. Summary and Outlook
✅ Conclusion: Next week, the trend of gold will still be "high-short as the main and low-long as the auxiliary", focusing on the game between 3250 support and 3295 pressure level.
Gold has not yet broken out of the short structure, and the inertial decline after breaking 3295 will continue. It is recommended that traders avoid chasing ups and downs, strictly implement stop losses, and remain flexible.
1. News interpretation: Fed policy and market sentiment dominate the direction
✦ Review of key factors:
The situation in the Middle East has eased
The safe-haven demand for gold has declined, which is bearish for gold prices.
Fed Focus: PCE Price Index
If PCE data rises → Strengthen interest rate hike expectations → Gold prices are under pressure
If personal spending is weak → Interest rate hike expectations slow down → Favorable gold price rebound
Investors' wait-and-see sentiment heats up
→ There is no panic selling in the market, and it tends to fluctuate downward rather than plummet.
2. Technical analysis: Bearish dominance, pay attention to key support areas
Daily structure:
The bearish trend is clear, and the moving average system turns downward;
The price is running near the lower track of the Bollinger band, and there is a suspicion of short-term oversold;
The 3280-3295 area constitutes a pressure zone, which has not been broken after multiple tests.
Key points at the 4-hour level:
A step-down channel is clearly formed;
Support levels gradually move downward, a typical bearish pattern;
Lower support: 3270 → 3263 → 3250-3245
Upper pressure: 3280 → 3300 → 3310
III. Gold trend forecast for next week
📉 Main trend: bearish, short-term or bottoming out
If it falls to the 3245-3250 area, a short-term technical rebound can be expected;
After the rebound, it may be blocked again in the 3280-3295 range, suitable for short selling;
Unless it strongly recovers above 3310, it will be difficult to reverse the downward trend.
IV. Operation strategy suggestions (core)
Sell on highs 3285 - 3295 Stop loss 3310 Target 3255 / 3245 Layout short orders near resistance
Trend bottom-picking 3245 - 3250 Stop loss 3238 Target 3275 / 3280 Oversold rebound expected, try to buy long with a light position
Aggressive short selling near 3310 Stop loss above 3336 Target 3280 / 3263 Top and bottom conversion resistance level, if the test is not broken, short
V. Summary and Outlook
✅ Conclusion: Next week, the trend of gold will still be "high-short as the main and low-long as the auxiliary", focusing on the game between 3250 support and 3295 pressure level.
Gold has not yet broken out of the short structure, and the inertial decline after breaking 3295 will continue. It is recommended that traders avoid chasing ups and downs, strictly implement stop losses, and remain flexible.
Trade active
Data on Friday showed U.S. consumer spending unexpectedly fell 0.1% in May after an unrevised 0.2% gain in April as a boost from consumers buying goods such as cars before tariffs took effect faded. Action Economics said this was the first decline in consumer spending since September 2021. U.S. personal income also fell 0.4% in May.In terms of inflation, data showed that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.1% month-on-month in May, the same as the increase in April. The PCE price index rose 2.3% year-on-year in May and rose 2.2% in April. Excluding the more volatile food and energy components, the core PCE price index rose 0.2% month-on-month in May. It rose 0.1% in April. The core PCE price index rose 2.7% year-on-year in May, compared with a 2.6% increase in April.
After the data was released, interest rate futures traders on Friday increased their bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2025, most likely starting in September. Federal funds rate futures prices show that the market expects a rate cut of about 65 basis points in 2025.
James Knightley, chief economist at ING Group, said: "Leading indicators of the job market are beginning to show signs of weakness, which means that employment data in the July-September period will be crucial.
If the employment data is indeed disappointing, the Fed is more likely to start easing policy at the September policy meeting and cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in October and December, rather than waiting until the fourth quarter to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points as we currently expect."
The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in June was revised up to 60.7, and the initial value was 60.5. It is worth noting that consumers expect inflation. The final value of consumers' one-year inflation expectations in June was 5.0%, lower than the initial value of 5.1% and 1.6 percentage points lower than the final value in May.
Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said that these data did not affect gold prices, and the sell-off was caused by geopolitical factors.
In addition, this week, Fed Chairman Powell testified in Congress and once again maintained a patient attitude, which aroused Trump's dissatisfaction, causing Trump to consider or announce Powell's successor in advance, causing the market to worry about the successor's influence on the market trend. Trump said on Friday morning, "I hope Fed Chairman Powell will resign. I will not appoint someone who wants to maintain the status quo of interest rates. I will appoint someone who wants to cut interest rates as Fed Chairman." Related news may gradually unfold next week, causing market concerns and affecting gold prices.
Next week, the market may focus on tariffs again. U.S. Treasury Secretary Benson said on Friday that "reciprocal tariffs" may be re-imposed on 20 countries, or tariffs on these countries may remain at 10% if we believe that the other party is negotiating in good faith.
It is worth noting that Trump terminated trade negotiations with Canada on Friday on the grounds of digital service tax. Trump said: "We have just learned that Canada, a country with extremely difficult trade relations, has imposed dairy tariffs of up to 400% on our farmers for many years. Now it has announced that it will impose digital service taxes on American technology companies. This is a direct and naked attack on our country. They are obviously following the example of the European Union, which has also taken the same measures and is currently negotiating with us. In view of this shocking tax policy, we hereby terminate all trade negotiations with Canada, effective immediately. We will inform Canada of the tariffs that will be paid for trade with the United States within the next seven days." Next week, the market will usher in a group meeting of major central bank governors around the world (Fed Chairman Powell, European Central Bank President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, and Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong). The market will also usher in non-agricultural data, and Powell's remarks on whether to resign may ignite the market next week. Gold prices may fluctuate more sharply near the lower track of the Bollinger Band of $3,270/ounce next week.
Trade closed: target reached
Analysis of the latest gold market trends (June 30, 2025)
1. Analysis of gold news
Weakened safe-haven demand: Gold prices fell nearly 2% last week, hitting a near one-month low (spot gold at $3,273/ounce), mainly due to the easing of tensions in the Middle East and progress in Sino-US trade negotiations, which weakened gold's safe-haven appeal.
Influence of Fed policy: Fed Chairman Powell's recent statement is hawkish, and the probability of a rate cut in July has dropped to 20%. The strengthening of the US dollar further suppresses gold prices.
Key events this week:
The meeting of global central bank governors may release monetary policy signals.
US non-farm data: If the employment data is strong, it may strengthen the Fed's expectations of maintaining high interest rates, which is bearish for gold.
Powell's resignation storm: Trump recently pressured Powell to resign, but the market generally believes that Powell will not leave early. If the remarks ferment, it may exacerbate market volatility.
2. Technical analysis of gold
Weekly level
Continuous Yin engulfing pattern, closing price fell below the 5-week moving average (3304) and 10-week moving average (3315), MACD downtrend momentum column increased, indicating bearish dominance, this week may test 3180-3175 support.
Key resistance: 3304-3315 (rebound shorting area).
Daily level
Double top structure confirmed (3452 is the second highest point), Bollinger band opened, 66-day moving average has been broken, short-term target looks at 100-day moving average (around 3200).
Short-term rebound resistance: 3295 (MA5 moving average), 3308 (previous high pressure).
4-hour level
There is a double bottom support near 3255 (3120-3452 band 0.618 retracement level), MACD bottom divergence, short-term rebound correction or.
Key support/resistance:
Above: 3295-3308 (short order layout area).
Below: 3250-3245 (if it falls below, look down to 3200).
3. Operation strategy
Short-term: short-selling when it rebounds to 3290-3300, stop loss 3315, target 3250-3240; if the 3245 support is effective, short-term long positions can be lightly held.
Medium- and long-term: if it falls below 3240, it may further drop to 3200-3180, and then you can observe the stabilization signal to arrange long orders.
Risk warning: Market volatility may intensify this week, and we need to pay close attention to the Fed's policy signals and changes in the geopolitical situation.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.