Gold fluctuates upward, Fed policy and Ukraine negotiations

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Spot gold prices rose slightly, trading around $3,350 per ounce in pre-market trading. The rise in gold prices was primarily driven by traders awaiting a meeting at the White House between US President Trump, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, and some NATO member states. According to Reuters, the meeting will focus on Russian President Vladimir Putin's proposed ceasefire conditions for the Ukrainian conflict, which include Ukraine relinquishing its claim to Crimea and abandoning its NATO membership.

In a post on social media, Trump suggested that Zelenskyy could quickly end the Russia-Ukraine conflict if Ukraine relinquished its claim to Crimea and abandoned its NATO membership. Such comments could increase the likelihood of a ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia, weighing on the appeal of safe-haven assets like gold. Any de-escalation in tensions could dampen demand for gold as a safe haven.

This week, the market will also be focused on the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, particularly a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, which would be positive for gold, as a rate cut would increase the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets like gold.

Technical Analysis: 👇👇👇👇

Spot gold prices have shown some volatility in recent trading, fluctuating between $3329.79 and $3374.71. The current price is around $3350, close to the middle Bollinger Band at $3342.52.

Bollinger Band Analysis: Gold's price range is gradually narrowing, and the Bollinger Bands are beginning to contract. If gold breaks above the upper band at $3355.29, it could test the high of $3374.71 and move higher. If it falls below the lower band at $3329.75, it could test support near $3323.43.

MACD Indicator: The MACD currently shows signs of a bull market, and the MACD line maintains a certain distance from the signal line, suggesting that the upward momentum has not yet faded. However, the MACD histogram shows some signs of contraction, suggesting a short-term pullback.

RSI indicator: The RSI is currently near 53.92, indicating relative strength but not yet in the overbought zone (typically above 70). This suggests that gold prices still have room to rise, but caution is warranted regarding market reversal risks.

In summary, spot gold is currently trading in a volatile, relatively strong pattern. In the short term, it may continue to test the resistance level of $3355.29. If it breaks through, it could continue to challenge the high of $3374.71. Conversely, a break below the support level of $3329.75 could trigger a short-term correction.

Market Sentiment Observation👇👇👇👇👇👇

Market sentiment in the gold market remains cautious. The meeting between US and Ukrainian leaders may impact safe-haven demand. If there are further signs of a ceasefire in the conflict, traders may gradually reduce their demand for gold. However, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction and global economic uncertainty remain key market concerns, and demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is unlikely to completely subside in the short term.

Traders continue to monitor US political developments and Federal Reserve monetary policy changes, particularly Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole annual symposium from August 21st to 23rd, which may provide further market guidance.

Market Outlook👇👇👇👇👇👇

Bull Outlook:👇👇👇👇👇👇
In the short term, if gold prices break through the upper Bollinger Band at $3,355.29 and remain above it, gold could continue its upward trend, challenging the high of $3,374.71 or even higher. Expectations of a Fed rate cut are likely to provide support for gold, and traders are closely monitoring the Fed's policy developments for further directional guidance.

Bear Outlook:
If market sentiment turns optimistic due to easing tensions, gold prices could retreat. If gold prices fall below the lower Bollinger Band at $3,329.75 and continue to decline, they could see a further correction to $3,323.43 or even lower.

Long-term Outlook:
In the long term, gold continues to benefit from global economic uncertainty, a low interest rate environment, and geopolitical risks. If global economic growth slows or large-scale geopolitical risks re-emerge, gold will once again become a safe-haven asset and may continue its upward trend. XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD XAUUSD GOLD

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