I. Core market dynamics
Policy factors
The Fed's expectations for rate cuts in 2025 have been strengthened (the market is pricing in 2 rate cuts, with a probability of 85%)
Trump tends to appoint a dovish Fed chairman
Key data outlook: non-farm payrolls (expected to be 185,000), ADP employment
Market sentiment indicators
U.S. Treasury yields fell below 4.3%
Gold ETF holdings increased by 4.2 tons per day
II. Technical analysis points
Key price levels
Support range:
√ Short-term: 3325-3315
√ Mid-term: 3280
Resistance range:
√ Short-term: 3360-3370
√ Midline: 3400
Technical pattern characteristics
Daily line breaks through the 3320 neckline
4-hour rising channel (3325-3365)
1-hour chart top divergence risk appears
Momentum indicator status
MACD daily line golden cross formed
RSI maintained in the 55-60 range
ATR volatility rose to 19.3
III. Trading strategy recommendations
Day trading plan
Long strategy:
√ Entry: 3328-3332 range
√ Stop loss: below 3318
√ Target: 3355-3360
Short strategy:
√ Entry: 3358-3362 range
√ Stop loss: above 3368
√ Target: 3335-3340
Breakthrough trading plan
Break above 3365: Go long after stepping back to 3360, target 3380
Break below 3318: Go short after rebounding to 3325, target 3300
IV. Risk management points
Position allocation
Basic position: 3%
Trend confirmation: increase to 5%
Data market: reduce to 1-2%
Key risk control measures
Non-agricultural > 220,000: focus on 3280 support
Non-agricultural < 150,000: focus on 3400 resistance
Strictly implement stop loss (long order 3313/short order 3372)
Operation suggestion: It is currently recommended to adopt the "range trading + breakthrough follow-up" strategy combination, focusing on the breakthrough of the key position of 3360. Keep flexible positions before and after the data is released, and give priority to limit orders. The technical and fundamental aspects are at a critical turning point. It is recommended to wait for clear signals before increasing position allocation.
Trade active
In-depth analysis of gold trading strategies (market logic + technical resonance after Powell's speech)
🔍 Core logic sorting
Powell's "dovish and cautious" stance
Not in a hurry to cut interest rates: Emphasize the need for more data (employment, inflation) confirmation, but do not completely rule out the possibility of action in July, and the market is still betting on a September rate cut (CME FedWatch shows that the probability has risen to 68%).
Tariff risk warning: If Trump's tariff increase pushes up inflation, it may delay interest rate cuts, but concerns about economic slowdown (continuous contraction of manufacturing PMI) support gold's safe-haven demand.
Technical long and short critical points
Weekly cross star: shock continues, but did not break the previous low of 3275, and the medium-term direction is pending.
4-hour key suppression: 3344-3349 (50% Fibonacci + downtrend line), 3321-3315 (38.2% retracement + Bollinger middle track).
Daily contradictory signals: Bollinger Bands narrowing + MACD near zero axis golden cross, but RSI neutral (54), need to break through 3352 to confirm the bullish trend.
📊 Refined trading strategy
🎯 Scenario 1: Pre-data shock market (ADP/non-agricultural)
1. High-altitude strategy (3340-3345 area)
Entry conditions:
Price touches 3344-3349 (4-hour downward trend line + previous high resistance).
15-minute chart shows bearish engulfing or RSI overbought (>70).
Stop loss: 3352 (breakthrough means the trend turns strong and short orders are invalid).
Target: 3320 (first support) → 3300 (psychological barrier).
Profit and loss ratio: 1:2.5 (risk 8 points/potential profit 20-40 points).
2. Low-to-long strategy (3305-3300 area)
Entry conditions:
Price falls back to 3300-3305 (daily EMA50 + weekly low support).
Coordinated with 1-hour KD oversold (<30) or hammer line pattern.
Stop loss: 3290 (break through to open downside space).
Target: 3325 (neckline) → 3345 (trend line breakthrough).
Profit-loss ratio: 1:3 (risk 10 points/potential profit 30-40 points).
🎯 Scenario 2: Data-driven breakthrough
If ADP/non-agricultural is weak (<100,000 employment):
Buy signal: break through 3352 and then fall back to 3340 to go long, target 3380 (monthly high).
Stop loss: 3330 (support conversion position after breakthrough).
If the data is strong (>180,000 jobs):
Short signal: short after breaking 3290 and rebounding to 3305, target 3260 (200-day moving average).
Stop loss: 3315 (previous low resistance).
⚠️Risk warning
Liquidity trap: A flash crash/surge of $10-15 may occur 5 minutes before and after the release of ADP. It is recommended to reduce positions or place a breakout order 5 minutes before the data.
Trump's tariff remarks: If there is a sudden news of additional tariffs, gold may fall first (US dollar strength) and then rise (inflation expectations).
Option betting changes: COMEX gold 3400 call option positions surge, beware of short squeeze.
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💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+OJSbWQ6F4KM2Mzk1
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.