Core logic of the current market
Gold has recently shown the characteristics of oscillating bottoming out. The daily level forms a key support near 3295. If it holds this position, it may start a rebound; on the contrary, if it falls below, it may continue the downward trend. The focus of the short-term long and short competition is concentrated in the 3340-3355 area, and the breakthrough direction will determine the trend of the next stage.
Analysis of key technical signals
1. Daily level: bottoming out and rebounding, bulls are accumulating momentum
Form: The previous day bottomed out and closed positive, and the rebound continued yesterday, indicating that the 3295 support is effective and the short-term short momentum is weakened.
Key pressure: 3355 (Bollinger middle track), it is expected to test 3385 after breaking through.
Key support: 3295 (recent low), breaking below will open up downside space.
2. 4-hour level: Golden cross is bullish, but BOLL suppression has not been broken
The stochastic indicator (KD) is golden cross, short-term bullish, but the price is still subject to the pressure of 3345-3347 (BOLL middle track).
The MACD momentum column is shrinking, indicating that long and short positions are still competing, and it is necessary to observe whether it can stand above 3340.
3. 1-hour level: Moving average dead cross, short-term still has the risk of callback
The short-term moving average (5/10EMA) dead cross indicates that there is still selling pressure in the short term. If it cannot break through 3340, it may fall back to the support of 3312-3315.
Key watershed: 3340 (1-hour trend suppression), if it breaks through, the short-term will turn strong.
Today's operation strategy (key range trading)
1. Short order strategy (short under pressure near 3340)
Entry point: 3340-3345 (1-hour pressure + 4-hour BOLL middle track)
Stop loss: above 3355 (short order invalid if it breaks through)
Target: 3320-3315 (previous low support area)
Logic: Before effectively breaking through 3340, short-term high-short order can still bet on callback.
2. Long order strategy (stable long near 3315)
Entry point: 3312-3315 (yesterday's low support)
Stop loss: below 3307 (to prevent false break)
Target: 3330-3340 (reduce position in pressure area)
Logic: If the retracement does not break the support, you can bet on a rebound at a low price.
3. Breakout strategy (turn to long after stabilizing 3355)
Confirmation signal: 1-hour closing stabilizes at 3355
Target: 3385 (daily resistance)
Logic: The trend becomes stronger after the breakthrough, and you can follow the trend.
Key risk reminder
Dollar trend: If the US dollar rebounds sharply, it may suppress the rebound space of gold.
Market sentiment: Rising risk aversion (such as geopolitical conflicts) may promote gold breakthroughs.
Fed policy expectations: If the recent speeches of officials are hawkish, it may limit the rise of gold.
Summary: Sell high and buy low, wait for a breakthrough
Oscillating range: 3315-3340, you can sell high and buy low.
Breakthrough direction: If it stabilizes at 3355, it will be bullish to 3385; if it falls below 3295, the trend will turn bearish.
Trading discipline: Strictly stop loss and avoid carrying orders.
Trade active
Latest gold trend analysis and strategy:
Key news impact
PCE data focus:
If the US May core PCE price index (the Fed's preferred inflation indicator) is higher than expected, it may strengthen expectations of interest rate hikes and be bearish for gold; on the contrary, if it is lower than expected, it may ease hawkish pressure and support gold prices.
The monthly personal spending rate is expected to decline (good for gold, as weak consumption may indicate an economic slowdown), but PCE data is more dominant, and we need to be wary of volatile market conditions under data divergence.
Geopolitical risks cool down:
The easing of the situation in the Middle East weakens the safe-haven demand for gold, and the outflow of short-term safe-haven funds puts pressure on gold prices.
US dollar and interest rate expectations:
If the PCE data is strong, the US dollar may strengthen, further suppressing gold; on the contrary, if the data is weak, gold may get a respite.
Key technical points
Resistance: 3290-3300 (4-hour level top and bottom conversion pressure), 3310 (strong resistance, ideal entry point for short orders).
Support level: 3277 (short-term support), 3263 (key long-short watershed), 3250-3240 (medium-term support zone).
Short-term operation strategy
Short-term opportunity:
Aggressive: Try shorting with a light position near the current price of 3280 (stop loss above 3295), target 3277-3263.
Conservative: Wait for a rebound to the 3300-3310 area before shorting (stop loss 3315), target 3280-3263.
Logic: 4 hours below the previous low of 3295, the rebound is weak in the negative market, follow the trend and go high.
Long-term opportunity:
Participate cautiously: If it touches 3250-3255 for the first time, you can short-term rebound (stop loss 3245), target 3280.
Note: Only fast in and out, if the PCE data quickly breaks below 3260, give up the long position.
Risks to be aware of
PCE data surprise: If inflation is significantly lower than expected, gold may quickly rise and break through 3300, and short position strategy needs to be adjusted in time.
Technical break: If the daily closing price stands above 3310, be alert to the formation of a short-term bottom and short positions need to be exited.
Summary
Gold tends to fluctuate downward during the day, but be alert to the volatility amplification caused by data. The main idea is to rebound high and the key pressure is 3300-3310; 3263 below is the long defense position, and if it breaks, look to 3250-3240. It is recommended to lighten the position or wait and see before the data to avoid the risk of sudden fluctuations.
Trade closed: target reached
Next week's gold trend analysis strategy:
1. News interpretation: Fed policy and market sentiment dominate the direction
✦ Review of key factors:
The situation in the Middle East has eased
The safe-haven demand for gold has declined, which is bearish for gold prices.
Fed Focus: PCE Price Index
If PCE data rises → Strengthen interest rate hike expectations → Gold prices are under pressure
If personal spending is weak → Interest rate hike expectations slow down → Favorable gold price rebound
Investors' wait-and-see sentiment heats up
→ There is no panic selling in the market, and it tends to fluctuate downward rather than plummet.
2. Technical analysis: Bearish dominance, pay attention to key support areas
Daily structure:
The bearish trend is clear, and the moving average system turns downward;
The price is running near the lower track of the Bollinger band, and there is a suspicion of short-term oversold;
The 3280-3295 area constitutes a pressure zone, which has not been broken after multiple tests.
Key points at the 4-hour level:
A step-down channel is clearly formed;
Support levels gradually move downward, a typical bearish pattern;
Lower support: 3270 → 3263 → 3250-3245
Upper pressure: 3280 → 3300 → 3310
III. Gold trend forecast for next week
📉 Main trend: bearish, short-term or bottoming out
If it falls to the 3245-3250 area, a short-term technical rebound can be expected;
After the rebound, it may be blocked again in the 3280-3295 range, suitable for short selling;
Unless it strongly recovers above 3310, it will be difficult to reverse the downward trend.
IV. Operation strategy suggestions (core)
Sell on highs 3285 - 3295 Stop loss 3310 Target 3255 / 3245 Layout short orders near resistance
Trend bottom-picking 3245 - 3250 Stop loss 3238 Target 3275 / 3280 Oversold rebound expected, try to buy long with a light position
Aggressive short selling near 3310 Stop loss above 3336 Target 3280 / 3263 Top and bottom conversion resistance level, if the test is not broken, short
V. Summary and Outlook
✅ Conclusion: Next week, the trend of gold will still be "high-short as the main and low-long as the auxiliary", focusing on the game between 3250 support and 3295 pressure level.
Gold has not yet broken out of the short structure, and the inertial decline after breaking 3295 will continue. It is recommended that traders avoid chasing ups and downs, strictly implement stop losses, and remain flexible.
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💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+OJSbWQ6F4KM2Mzk1
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.