Today's bearish target for gold prices: 3300
Technical analysis:
Short-term support: $3330-3320 (5-day and 10-day moving averages),
Short-term resistance: $3360-3374 (61.8% retracement).
If it falls below $3330, it may fall to the $3306-3320 range;
If it breaks through $3374, it may challenge the previous high of $3450.
The daily chart shows that gold prices are fluctuating at high levels, and the MACD red column has expanded, but the RSI (60-65) shows a good bullish momentum.
2. Main influencing factors
Federal Reserve policy and non-agricultural data:
The market focuses on the US non-agricultural employment data for June released tonight (July 3) (expected to increase by 106,000, and the previous value was an increase of 139,000).
If the data is weak (for example, the unemployment rate rises to 4.3%), it may strengthen the expectation of a rate cut in September, which is good for gold;
On the contrary, if the data is strong, the price of gold may fall back.
The unexpected contraction of the ADP employment data in June (a decrease of 33,000 jobs) has pushed up the expectation of a rate cut in advance.
Geopolitics and safe-haven demand:
If the situation in the Middle East (such as the Iranian nuclear issue) escalates, it may push up the price of gold, but the recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has weakened the short-term safe-haven support.
The continued purchase of gold by central banks around the world (net purchase of 289 tons in the second quarter of 2025) constitutes long-term support.
The US dollar and interest rates:
The US dollar index has weakened recently, but if the Fed postpones the rate cut (the probability of a rate cut in September is currently 75%), it may suppress the price of gold.
3. My views and market forecasts:
In the short term, the price of gold will fluctuate, and the trend depends on the non-agricultural data.
If the data is weak, the price of gold may rise to $3370-3400;
If the data is strong, the price of gold may fall back below $3300.
I think the possibility of a fall is high.
In the short term, I prefer the strategy and trading ideas of shorting at high prices below 3360-3370.
Suggestions:
Short-term trading: Pay attention to the breakthrough opportunities after the release of non-agricultural data. You can go long at the support level (3330-3320 US dollars) and try to go short at the resistance level (3360-3374 US dollars).
Flexibly adjust the strategy.
Technical analysis:
Short-term support: $3330-3320 (5-day and 10-day moving averages),
Short-term resistance: $3360-3374 (61.8% retracement).
If it falls below $3330, it may fall to the $3306-3320 range;
If it breaks through $3374, it may challenge the previous high of $3450.
The daily chart shows that gold prices are fluctuating at high levels, and the MACD red column has expanded, but the RSI (60-65) shows a good bullish momentum.
2. Main influencing factors
Federal Reserve policy and non-agricultural data:
The market focuses on the US non-agricultural employment data for June released tonight (July 3) (expected to increase by 106,000, and the previous value was an increase of 139,000).
If the data is weak (for example, the unemployment rate rises to 4.3%), it may strengthen the expectation of a rate cut in September, which is good for gold;
On the contrary, if the data is strong, the price of gold may fall back.
The unexpected contraction of the ADP employment data in June (a decrease of 33,000 jobs) has pushed up the expectation of a rate cut in advance.
Geopolitics and safe-haven demand:
If the situation in the Middle East (such as the Iranian nuclear issue) escalates, it may push up the price of gold, but the recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has weakened the short-term safe-haven support.
The continued purchase of gold by central banks around the world (net purchase of 289 tons in the second quarter of 2025) constitutes long-term support.
The US dollar and interest rates:
The US dollar index has weakened recently, but if the Fed postpones the rate cut (the probability of a rate cut in September is currently 75%), it may suppress the price of gold.
3. My views and market forecasts:
In the short term, the price of gold will fluctuate, and the trend depends on the non-agricultural data.
If the data is weak, the price of gold may rise to $3370-3400;
If the data is strong, the price of gold may fall back below $3300.
I think the possibility of a fall is high.
In the short term, I prefer the strategy and trading ideas of shorting at high prices below 3360-3370.
Suggestions:
Short-term trading: Pay attention to the breakthrough opportunities after the release of non-agricultural data. You can go long at the support level (3330-3320 US dollars) and try to go short at the resistance level (3360-3374 US dollars).
Flexibly adjust the strategy.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
💸Free signal:t.me/+-tEkPdw9F0IzOGQx
Enjoy life, enjoy trading
Enjoy life, enjoy trading
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.