XAUUSD – Poised for a Major Breakout After Consolidation

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On the monthly chart, XAUUSD is forming an Inside Bar pattern, signaling that the market is compressing ahead of a potential strong move. May’s candle remains within April’s range – a classic setup that often precedes a decisive breakout.
On the H4 timeframe, gold has attempted to break above recent highs multiple times but failed, forming a series of lower highs, indicating a corrective structure. However, the recent rebound from May’s low suggests potential accumulation is underway.
Currently, price is hovering around a neutral zone. A clear break above the 3,400 level could spark a fast move toward the 3,500–3,600 range. Conversely, a drop below 3,120 would open the door for a deeper pullback toward 3,000.
From a macro perspective, long-term fundamentals continue to support the bullish case for gold, driven by dovish central bank policies, geopolitical risks, and concerns about USD debasement. Still, a confirmed technical breakout is needed to establish direction in the near term.
Strategy Summary
Buy zone to watch: 3,307 – 3,320
Bullish trigger: Holding above 3,300
Target: 3,435

Risks: False breakouts or failure to hold above the breakout zone

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