Gold fluctuates sharply, both bulls and bears have opportunities
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💡Message Strategy
1. The decline in gold prices is directly due to the cooling of market risk aversion caused by the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran. The attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset has weakened. The ceasefire agreement is fragile. Israel and Iran have accused each other of default. Trump criticized both sides. Its sustainability is questionable, adding uncertainty to the gold market.
2. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testified at a congressional hearing on June 24 that it is necessary to observe the impact of tariffs on inflation before cutting interest rates. He is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, which has cooled expectations for a rate cut in July. Gold, as a non-interest-bearing asset, is under pressure under high interest rate expectations. The uncertainty of inflation caused by tariffs also limits the attractiveness of gold as an inflation hedging tool.
3. The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index fell to 93.0 in June. Consumers are worried about employment and economic prospects. Although the one-year inflation expectations have fallen, the expectations for rising interest rates have risen, which has weakened the safe-haven demand for gold. In the long run, gold's anti-inflation and safe-haven properties are still there. Global economic uncertainty and a weaker dollar may rekindle demand for gold. Investors need to pay attention to the Fed's policies and the situation in the Middle East and seize the opportunity to allocate.
📊Technical aspects
1. The weekly level switches space around the 10-day moving average. This week has not yet closed, so there is no final conclusion. You can keep it in mind first.
2. The daily line lost the lifeline support area that has been held for a month. The top and bottom are converted to each other. The lifeline position 3355 becomes the resistance range. However, please note that the pattern is closing, which means that the switching space is not the direction. The opening and volume must be opened to guide the direction.
Note that two points are also contradictory points. One is the lifeline 3355 switching space, and the other is that the pattern further closes and accumulates momentum, waiting for the opening to guide the real direction.
3. Five consecutive negatives in four hours, a drop of more than 100 US dollars from 3396 to 3295, and then began to rebound from a low position. This is very embarrassing. If it is a trend, there will be no consecutive positives. action, and will not linger for so long
Then there is only one explanation left, or sweep, pay attention to the lifeline position 3350, the double-line upper rail position 3364, together become the pressure line position of the partial sweep method
There can be a rise in leverage, but it cannot be a breakthrough of continuous rise or steady rise, otherwise the nature will change again
4. The double lines of the hourly chart are close and superimposed in the 3350-3355 area, which coincides with the four-hour lifeline. At the same time, this is also the last rebound to determine the resistance area yesterday afternoon, so as to change the nature
5. The large channel cooperates with the small channel interval. After breaking through yesterday, it further fell in volume. Now the position along the large channel is in the 3340 area. This will be the acceleration point today. Breaking through accelerates the rise, and breaking through accelerates the fall
💰Strategy Package
Short Position：3345-3355，SL：3365，Target: 3300-3290
Long Position:3280-3290，SL：3265，Target: 3340
💡Message Strategy
1. The decline in gold prices is directly due to the cooling of market risk aversion caused by the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran. The attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset has weakened. The ceasefire agreement is fragile. Israel and Iran have accused each other of default. Trump criticized both sides. Its sustainability is questionable, adding uncertainty to the gold market.
2. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testified at a congressional hearing on June 24 that it is necessary to observe the impact of tariffs on inflation before cutting interest rates. He is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, which has cooled expectations for a rate cut in July. Gold, as a non-interest-bearing asset, is under pressure under high interest rate expectations. The uncertainty of inflation caused by tariffs also limits the attractiveness of gold as an inflation hedging tool.
3. The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index fell to 93.0 in June. Consumers are worried about employment and economic prospects. Although the one-year inflation expectations have fallen, the expectations for rising interest rates have risen, which has weakened the safe-haven demand for gold. In the long run, gold's anti-inflation and safe-haven properties are still there. Global economic uncertainty and a weaker dollar may rekindle demand for gold. Investors need to pay attention to the Fed's policies and the situation in the Middle East and seize the opportunity to allocate.
📊Technical aspects
1. The weekly level switches space around the 10-day moving average. This week has not yet closed, so there is no final conclusion. You can keep it in mind first.
2. The daily line lost the lifeline support area that has been held for a month. The top and bottom are converted to each other. The lifeline position 3355 becomes the resistance range. However, please note that the pattern is closing, which means that the switching space is not the direction. The opening and volume must be opened to guide the direction.
Note that two points are also contradictory points. One is the lifeline 3355 switching space, and the other is that the pattern further closes and accumulates momentum, waiting for the opening to guide the real direction.
3. Five consecutive negatives in four hours, a drop of more than 100 US dollars from 3396 to 3295, and then began to rebound from a low position. This is very embarrassing. If it is a trend, there will be no consecutive positives. action, and will not linger for so long
Then there is only one explanation left, or sweep, pay attention to the lifeline position 3350, the double-line upper rail position 3364, together become the pressure line position of the partial sweep method
There can be a rise in leverage, but it cannot be a breakthrough of continuous rise or steady rise, otherwise the nature will change again
4. The double lines of the hourly chart are close and superimposed in the 3350-3355 area, which coincides with the four-hour lifeline. At the same time, this is also the last rebound to determine the resistance area yesterday afternoon, so as to change the nature
5. The large channel cooperates with the small channel interval. After breaking through yesterday, it further fell in volume. Now the position along the large channel is in the 3340 area. This will be the acceleration point today. Breaking through accelerates the rise, and breaking through accelerates the fall
💰Strategy Package
Short Position：3345-3355，SL：3365，Target: 3300-3290
Long Position:3280-3290，SL：3265，Target: 3340
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Gold is under pressure as expected, and the subsequent weekly support and daily resistance range will fluctuate
Through scientific and rigorous financial analysis and personalized strategy formulation, we help you achieve stable growth of wealth. At the same time, in a complex and changing economic environment, we help you avoid potential risks and protect the saf
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Through scientific and rigorous financial analysis and personalized strategy formulation, we help you achieve stable growth of wealth. At the same time, in a complex and changing economic environment, we help you avoid potential risks and protect the saf
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.