Inside the Trap: Schabacker Congestion, VWAP Warfare & The Silent Distribution on XAU/USD
1. The Congestion Area – Schabacker Style
🔍 What We Saw:
Price action rotated in a tight range: 3,324.5 - 3,329.5.
This is not random. This is Schabacker’s classic Congestion Zone:
Duration: 12+ hours
Width: ~5 points
Volume: tapering near edges
Failed breakouts on both sides = classic neutral wedge compression.
🎯 Schabacker Teaching Applied:
"Congestion areas are places of rest and preparation — they are the breeding grounds of significant breakouts or breakdowns."
From his bible “Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits”:
Congestion after a trend → likely a continuation (but confirm via breakout volume).
Multiple failed breakouts = deceptive strength/weakness → traps.
Range becomes psychological equilibrium → breakout from this zone is explosive.
📘 Lesson:
Watch for breakout confirmation only AFTER price escapes the congestion and retests the range (confirm with volume and delta). If volume weakens and price returns inside = fakeout, fade that sh*t.
🔥 How Schabacker Explains July 29 Price Action
"This was a classic congestion scenario with symmetrical compression, rejecting value high and value low over and over — a balanced market ripe for an imbalanced expansion."
Price coiled with lower highs + higher lows inside the value zone = triangle-like congestion.
Breakout attempts both sides failed = energy stored.
Delta flipped negative toward the close + volume dried = distribution inside the congestion.
✅ Congestion was not random chop. It was the Smart Money disguising their exit before slamming price.
⚔️ ENHANCED STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR TODAY (JULY 30, 2025)
🎯 Bias: Short bias unless proven wrong by breakout + acceptance above 3,329.50
Schabacker’s congestion broken to the downside = high probability short trigger.
First target = edge of congestion zone @ 3,316.80 (previous VAL).
Second target (extension) = swing low anchor near 3,310.
📘 Volatility Note:
After tight range like this (Schabacker Box), volatility expansion is imminent. Don’t get caught trading inside — trade the break and retest.
💣 HYPOTHETICAL TRADE PLAN: SCHABACKER STRATEGY IN PLAY
Order Type: 🔻 Sell Stop Below Congestion Break
Entry: 3,322.00
Stop Loss: 3,330.00 (above congestion top + failed breakout zone)
Take Profit 1: 3,316.80 (edge of range, VAL)
Take Profit 2: 3,310.00 (target from congestion width projection)
Confidence: 78%
🧠 Justification:
Factor Explanation
VWAP Flatlined = balanced market
FVRP Price camped near POC = equilibrium
Footprint Absorption at highs, silent selling = distribution confirmed
Delta Early buyer strength flipped = trap
Schabacker Congestion Classic box breakout setup = timing the expansion
🧠 EDUCATIONAL SUMMARY — WHAT YOU JUST LEARNED
✅ Schabacker’s Congestion Area Tactics
Don't waste your bullets inside the box. Wait for the beast to break loose — then you unload.
1. The Congestion Area – Schabacker Style
🔍 What We Saw:
Price action rotated in a tight range: 3,324.5 - 3,329.5.
This is not random. This is Schabacker’s classic Congestion Zone:
Duration: 12+ hours
Width: ~5 points
Volume: tapering near edges
Failed breakouts on both sides = classic neutral wedge compression.
🎯 Schabacker Teaching Applied:
"Congestion areas are places of rest and preparation — they are the breeding grounds of significant breakouts or breakdowns."
From his bible “Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits”:
Congestion after a trend → likely a continuation (but confirm via breakout volume).
Multiple failed breakouts = deceptive strength/weakness → traps.
Range becomes psychological equilibrium → breakout from this zone is explosive.
📘 Lesson:
Watch for breakout confirmation only AFTER price escapes the congestion and retests the range (confirm with volume and delta). If volume weakens and price returns inside = fakeout, fade that sh*t.
🔥 How Schabacker Explains July 29 Price Action
"This was a classic congestion scenario with symmetrical compression, rejecting value high and value low over and over — a balanced market ripe for an imbalanced expansion."
Price coiled with lower highs + higher lows inside the value zone = triangle-like congestion.
Breakout attempts both sides failed = energy stored.
Delta flipped negative toward the close + volume dried = distribution inside the congestion.
✅ Congestion was not random chop. It was the Smart Money disguising their exit before slamming price.
⚔️ ENHANCED STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR TODAY (JULY 30, 2025)
🎯 Bias: Short bias unless proven wrong by breakout + acceptance above 3,329.50
Schabacker’s congestion broken to the downside = high probability short trigger.
First target = edge of congestion zone @ 3,316.80 (previous VAL).
Second target (extension) = swing low anchor near 3,310.
📘 Volatility Note:
After tight range like this (Schabacker Box), volatility expansion is imminent. Don’t get caught trading inside — trade the break and retest.
💣 HYPOTHETICAL TRADE PLAN: SCHABACKER STRATEGY IN PLAY
Order Type: 🔻 Sell Stop Below Congestion Break
Entry: 3,322.00
Stop Loss: 3,330.00 (above congestion top + failed breakout zone)
Take Profit 1: 3,316.80 (edge of range, VAL)
Take Profit 2: 3,310.00 (target from congestion width projection)
Confidence: 78%
🧠 Justification:
Factor Explanation
VWAP Flatlined = balanced market
FVRP Price camped near POC = equilibrium
Footprint Absorption at highs, silent selling = distribution confirmed
Delta Early buyer strength flipped = trap
Schabacker Congestion Classic box breakout setup = timing the expansion
🧠 EDUCATIONAL SUMMARY — WHAT YOU JUST LEARNED
✅ Schabacker’s Congestion Area Tactics
- Congestion after a move Leads to continuation (trend resumes after pause)
- Multiple failed breakouts Traps traders = setup for fakeout fade
- Volume dries inside box = Explosive breakout likely
- Use congestion width To project breakout targets
- You don't fade chop — you exploit it after the breakout.
Don't waste your bullets inside the box. Wait for the beast to break loose — then you unload.
لو عايز تبقى واحد من اللي بيفهموا في الدهب وبيكسبوا من السوق صح،
🎯 للدهب والفرص الحقيقية تابعنا من هنا:
For gold updates & smart trades 👇
t.me/GOLDontheNILE
You're welcome to join my Telegram channel
انضم وابقى من اللعيبة مش من الجمهور💰🔥
🎯 للدهب والفرص الحقيقية تابعنا من هنا:
For gold updates & smart trades 👇
t.me/GOLDontheNILE
You're welcome to join my Telegram channel
انضم وابقى من اللعيبة مش من الجمهور💰🔥
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
لو عايز تبقى واحد من اللي بيفهموا في الدهب وبيكسبوا من السوق صح،
🎯 للدهب والفرص الحقيقية تابعنا من هنا:
For gold updates & smart trades 👇
t.me/GOLDontheNILE
You're welcome to join my Telegram channel
انضم وابقى من اللعيبة مش من الجمهور💰🔥
🎯 للدهب والفرص الحقيقية تابعنا من هنا:
For gold updates & smart trades 👇
t.me/GOLDontheNILE
You're welcome to join my Telegram channel
انضم وابقى من اللعيبة مش من الجمهور💰🔥
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.