Spot gold's upward momentum stalled during the Asian session on Thursday (August 14th). After hitting a three-day high near $3,375, it encountered some intraday selling and is currently trading around $3,358.52 per ounce, close to Wednesday's closing price. Global risk sentiment continues to be supported by two factors: optimistic expectations of a three-month extension of the US-China trade truce and positive signals from Friday's (August 15th) US-Russia summit aimed at ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This, in turn, has weighed on the safe-haven precious metal. However, multiple supportive factors remain favorable for bullish traders and provide a basis for potential bargain-hunting.
The US dollar continues to face selling pressure due to widespread expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs in September. Furthermore, traders have begun betting on the possibility of two Fed rate cuts before the end of the year, which should continue to be positive for gold, a non-interest-bearing asset. Against this backdrop, it would be prudent to await further follow-through selling to confirm whether the gold price rebound from Tuesday's one-week low of $3,331 has lost momentum.
Daily Market Drivers Analysis: Gold bulls hold off on aggressive bets amid rising risk appetite
Except for the Nikkei 225, Asian stocks extended their recent gains, tracking the US benchmark S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which posted record gains for the second consecutive trading day.
The US dollar rebounded slightly after hitting a two-week low early Thursday, but its upside is expected to be limited as market expectations for a more aggressive Federal Reserve rate cut are more aggressive than previously.
According to the CME Group FedWatch tool, the Federal Reserve is almost certain to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September policy meeting, with at least two more cuts expected before the end of the year.
This expectation was reinforced by US consumer inflation data, which was largely in line with expectations on Tuesday. Furthermore, the July US non-farm payroll report showed signs of labor market weakness, bolstering the case for further policy easing.
Meanwhile, US President Trump increased pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to cut interest rates. Furthermore, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant said the Fed should consider a 50 basis point rate cut next month.
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said he was more concerned about last month's rise in core inflation than the unusually weak jobs report, and therefore may not support a September rate cut.
Atlanta Fed President Bostic acknowledged the overall weakness in the latest round of employment data and noted the potential for structural changes due to tariffs, but he declined to comment on a rate cut.
U.S. Treasury yields remained under pressure as investors assessed the potential impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy and awaited the release of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) later in the North American session.
Gold's technical structure supports the view of dip buying at lower levels.
Gold broke through the $3,358-3,360 resistance level overnight, and the successful defense of the 200-period simple moving average support on the 4-hour chart earlier this week supports spot gold bulls. However, oscillators on the hourly and daily charts have yet to gain significant upward momentum, so it would be wise to wait for more follow-through buying before initiating further long positions.
Currently, the Asian session high (around $3,375) may constitute near-term resistance. A break above this level could potentially push gold prices towards the $3,400 mark. This level is closely followed by last week's swing high of $3,409-3,410. A successful break above this level would pave the way for further gains towards the intermediate resistance level of $3,422-3,423. Ultimately, upward momentum could propel gold prices above the $3,434-3,435 area, potentially challenging the psychologically important $3,500 peak reached in April.
On the downside, if gold prices break below support at $3,243-3,242 (the 200-period moving average on the 4-hour chart), they could find support near $3,331 (this week's low). If selling pressure persists, gold could accelerate its slide towards the $3,300 mark. A clear break below this level would turn bearish in the short term, opening up room for further declines.
XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD1! XAUUSD
The US dollar continues to face selling pressure due to widespread expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs in September. Furthermore, traders have begun betting on the possibility of two Fed rate cuts before the end of the year, which should continue to be positive for gold, a non-interest-bearing asset. Against this backdrop, it would be prudent to await further follow-through selling to confirm whether the gold price rebound from Tuesday's one-week low of $3,331 has lost momentum.
Daily Market Drivers Analysis: Gold bulls hold off on aggressive bets amid rising risk appetite
Except for the Nikkei 225, Asian stocks extended their recent gains, tracking the US benchmark S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which posted record gains for the second consecutive trading day.
The US dollar rebounded slightly after hitting a two-week low early Thursday, but its upside is expected to be limited as market expectations for a more aggressive Federal Reserve rate cut are more aggressive than previously.
According to the CME Group FedWatch tool, the Federal Reserve is almost certain to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September policy meeting, with at least two more cuts expected before the end of the year.
This expectation was reinforced by US consumer inflation data, which was largely in line with expectations on Tuesday. Furthermore, the July US non-farm payroll report showed signs of labor market weakness, bolstering the case for further policy easing.
Meanwhile, US President Trump increased pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to cut interest rates. Furthermore, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant said the Fed should consider a 50 basis point rate cut next month.
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said he was more concerned about last month's rise in core inflation than the unusually weak jobs report, and therefore may not support a September rate cut.
Atlanta Fed President Bostic acknowledged the overall weakness in the latest round of employment data and noted the potential for structural changes due to tariffs, but he declined to comment on a rate cut.
U.S. Treasury yields remained under pressure as investors assessed the potential impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy and awaited the release of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) later in the North American session.
Gold's technical structure supports the view of dip buying at lower levels.
Gold broke through the $3,358-3,360 resistance level overnight, and the successful defense of the 200-period simple moving average support on the 4-hour chart earlier this week supports spot gold bulls. However, oscillators on the hourly and daily charts have yet to gain significant upward momentum, so it would be wise to wait for more follow-through buying before initiating further long positions.
Currently, the Asian session high (around $3,375) may constitute near-term resistance. A break above this level could potentially push gold prices towards the $3,400 mark. This level is closely followed by last week's swing high of $3,409-3,410. A successful break above this level would pave the way for further gains towards the intermediate resistance level of $3,422-3,423. Ultimately, upward momentum could propel gold prices above the $3,434-3,435 area, potentially challenging the psychologically important $3,500 peak reached in April.
On the downside, if gold prices break below support at $3,243-3,242 (the 200-period moving average on the 4-hour chart), they could find support near $3,331 (this week's low). If selling pressure persists, gold could accelerate its slide towards the $3,300 mark. A clear break below this level would turn bearish in the short term, opening up room for further declines.
XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD1! XAUUSD 
Real-time strategies are like a beacon guiding your investment path. The market will never disappoint those who persevere and explore wisely....🚀🚀VIP Channel t.me/EagleEyePrecisionAnalysis
👉Exclusive address t.me/Eagle_PreciseAnalysis
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Real-time strategies are like a beacon guiding your investment path. The market will never disappoint those who persevere and explore wisely....🚀🚀VIP Channel t.me/EagleEyePrecisionAnalysis
👉Exclusive address t.me/Eagle_PreciseAnalysis
👉Exclusive address t.me/Eagle_PreciseAnalysis
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.