1. Current market drivers
Weakened safe-haven demand: Gold prices fell from a nearly two-month high in the European session, mainly because the performance of global equity markets has actively weakened gold's safe-haven appeal.
Federal Reserve policy expectations: The market focuses on the FOMC decision on Wednesday. Although interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, traders are betting that the Fed may release dovish signals (such as further rate cuts in 2025) due to slowing inflation and economic cooling, suppressing the dollar and supporting gold.
Geopolitical risks: The escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel and trade policy uncertainty still provide potential support for gold, but the market reaction is temporarily mild, limiting the rise in gold prices.
2. Key technical points
Short-term trend: Monday opened high and fell, breaking the 3,400 mark, forming a small-level top, and weakening in the short term.
Support level:
First support: 3383-3380 (intraday low)
Second support: 3360 (Daily MA5 and weekly key support)
Resistance level:
3403-3408 (anti-pressure area after breaking, short-term defense position)
3. Operation strategy
Short-term:
Short-selling on rebound: intervene when the 3403-3408 range is blocked, stop loss is set above 3410, target 3385-3360.
Long-term callback: if it falls to the 3360-3380 area and stabilizes (with daily MA5 support), you can lightly position long orders, stop loss below 3350, target 3400.
Mid-term:
Wait for the bottom to be confirmed (such as a double bottom or a large-volume rebound near 3360), and then arrange medium- and long-term long orders, looking towards 3500.
4. Risk Warning
FOMC Decision: If the Fed is unexpectedly hawkish (such as downplaying expectations of rate cuts), it may trigger a further correction in gold; a dovish stance may restart the rally.
Geopolitical Situation: If the conflict in the Middle East suddenly worsens, gold prices may rebound quickly, and positions need to be adjusted flexibly.
Key Operation Range Today
Short Entry: 3403-3408 (Stop Loss 3415, Target 3380)
Long Entry: 3380-3360 (Stop Loss 3355, Target 3400)
Trade active
Analysis of the latest trend of gold market:
News analysis
Expectations of Fed rate cuts and weak dollar
The market's expectations for the Fed to continue to cut interest rates in 2025 have increased, and the attractiveness of the US dollar has weakened, providing support for gold, an interest-free asset. The market is currently betting on a 60% probability of a rate cut in September. If the Fed sends a dovish signal, the price of gold may break through $3,400; conversely, if the rate cut is postponed, it may fall to $3,350.
Geopolitical risks increase risk aversion demand
Israel attacked Iran's state TV station, Iran threatened to launch the "largest attack in history", and three oil tankers caught fire near the Strait of Hormuz, exacerbating market risk aversion. However, if there are signs of easing in the situation in the Middle East (such as possible negotiations), risk aversion may cool, causing gold prices to fall.
Federal Reserve interest rate meeting and key economic data
This week's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but Powell's statement is crucial. In addition, the US May retail sales monthly rate ("terror data") will also affect the market's judgment on the economic outlook, and thus affect the trend of gold.
Technical analysis
Daily level: Short-sellers’ control has increased
Gold surged and fell back at the beginning of the week, falling below $3,400 and closing with a large negative line, indicating that shorts are dominant.
The 5-day moving average turned downward, and the Bollinger Bands narrowed. In the short term, it may test the support range of 3350-3360.
If it falls below 3350, it may further test 3300; if it stabilizes and rebounds, the upper resistance is 3400-3450.
4-hour level: Shorts are dominant, but there is a possibility of rebound
MACD dead cross, short-term moving averages (5 days, 20 days) form suppression, and the 3400 mark becomes a key resistance.
The lower support is 3380-3360. If it falls below, it may accelerate downward; if it rebounds and breaks through 3404-3409 (middle track + MA10), it may test 3420.
1-hour level: Weak shock
MACD dead cross shrinks, but the smart indicator is downward, indicating that there is still downward pressure in the short term.
The upper pressure is at 3412 (MA60+MA30). If it cannot break through, it may continue to fall.
Operation suggestions
Short-term strategy: short-selling on rebounds as the main, long-selling on pullbacks as the auxiliary
Resistance level: 3395-3405 (if the rebound reaches this range and is under pressure, consider shorting, with a stop loss above 3410).
Support level: 3360-3350 (if it stabilizes, you can try short long, stop loss below 3345).
Impact of key events:
If the Fed releases dovish signals or the situation in the Middle East deteriorates, the price of gold may rebound above 3400.
If the Fed is hawkish or geopolitical risks cool down, the price of gold may drop to the range of 3350-3300.
Trade closed: target reached
Analysis of the latest gold market trend on June 18:
📌 News analysis
Expectations of the Fed's rate cut continue to affect the market
The market's expectations for the Fed's rate cut in 2025 have increased, the US dollar index remains weak, and gold has gained support.
Key points of attention: This week's Fed interest rate decision and Powell's speech, if dovish signals are released (such as hinting at a rate cut in September), gold may rebound; if hawkish (postponing the rate cut), gold prices may be further under pressure.
The situation in the Middle East has escalated, and risk aversion has increased
After Israel attacked Iran's state TV station, Iran threatened "the largest retaliation in history", and the fire on the tanker in the Strait of Hormuz has exacerbated geopolitical risks.
Potential impact: If the conflict expands (such as Iran blocking the Strait or directly counterattacking), gold may rise rapidly; if the situation eases (negotiation signals), safe-haven buying may weaken.
US economic data and market sentiment
If recent US economic data (such as retail sales and unemployment rate) are weak, it may strengthen expectations of rate cuts and benefit gold; if the data is strong, it may suppress gold prices.
📊 Technical Analysis
🔹 Daily level: Bearish, but key support needs to be paid attention to
Trend review: Gold price fell after a high rise at the beginning of the week, falling below the 3400 mark and closing with a large negative line, indicating that bears are dominant.
Key signals:
The 5-day moving average turned downward, suppressing the rebound of gold prices in the short term.
The Bollinger Bands closed, indicating that the market has entered a shock consolidation phase. If it falls below 3350, it may accelerate downward to 3300.
Support level: 3360-3350 (if it stabilizes, it may rebound); resistance level: 3400-3410 (if it breaks through, it may test 3450).
🔹 4-hour level: Bearish, but there may be a rebound correction in the short term
Short-term moving average suppression (5-day and 20-day moving averages are glued at 3404-3409) constitutes strong resistance.
MACD crosses, but Stoch is oversold, and may correct and rebound in the short term, but if it fails to break through 3400, it may continue to fall.
Key support: 3360-3350 (if it falls below, it may drop to 3330-3300).
🔹 1-hour level: Weak shock, pay attention to the rebound strength
MACD crosses and shrinks, Stoch moves downward, and it is still weak in the short term.
Upper pressure: 3412 (MA60+MA30), if it fails to break through, it may continue to fall.
🎯 Today's operation strategy
📉 Short-term trading ideas: short-selling on rebounds is the main method, and long-selling on pullbacks is the auxiliary method
✅ Short-selling opportunities (selling at highs):
Entry area: 3395-3405 (if the rebound is blocked)
Target: 3360-3350
Stop loss: above 3410
✅ Long opportunities (buy low):
Entry area: 3360-3350 (if it stabilizes and rebounds)
Target: 3380-3400
Stop loss: below 3345
⚠️ Key risk warnings:
Market volatility may intensify before the Fed's decision. It is recommended to operate with a light position and strictly stop loss.
If the situation in the Middle East deteriorates, it may trigger a rapid rise in gold. Pay attention to real-time news.
📌 Summary: Gold is short-term dominant, but the key support (3360-3350) still has the possibility of a rebound. In terms of trading, it is recommended to take high-short as the main idea and low-long as the auxiliary idea, focusing on the Federal Reserve’s decisions and geopolitical trends.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+OJSbWQ6F4KM2Mzk1
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+OJSbWQ6F4KM2Mzk1
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.