1. News interpretation: Fed policy and market sentiment dominate the direction
✦ Review of key factors:
The situation in the Middle East has eased
The safe-haven demand for gold has declined, which is bearish for gold prices.
Fed Focus: PCE Price Index
If PCE data rises → Strengthen interest rate hike expectations → Gold prices are under pressure
If personal spending is weak → Interest rate hike expectations slow down → Favorable gold price rebound
Investors' wait-and-see sentiment heats up
→ There is no panic selling in the market, and it tends to fluctuate downward rather than plummet.
2. Technical analysis: Bearish dominance, pay attention to key support areas
Daily structure:
The bearish trend is clear, and the moving average system turns downward;
The price is running near the lower track of the Bollinger band, and there is a suspicion of short-term oversold;
The 3280-3295 area constitutes a pressure zone, which has not been broken after multiple tests.
Key points at the 4-hour level:
A step-down channel is clearly formed;
Support levels gradually move downward, a typical bearish pattern;
Lower support: 3270 → 3263 → 3250-3245
Upper pressure: 3280 → 3300 → 3310
III. Gold trend forecast for next week
📉 Main trend: bearish, short-term or bottoming out
If it falls to the 3245-3250 area, a short-term technical rebound can be expected;
After the rebound, it may be blocked again in the 3280-3295 range, suitable for short selling;
Unless it strongly recovers above 3310, it will be difficult to reverse the downward trend.
IV. Operation strategy suggestions (core)
Sell on highs 3285 - 3295 Stop loss 3310 Target 3255 / 3245 Layout short orders near resistance
Trend bottom-picking 3245 - 3250 Stop loss 3238 Target 3275 / 3280 Oversold rebound expected, try to buy long with a light position
Aggressive short selling near 3310 Stop loss above 3336 Target 3280 / 3263 Top and bottom conversion resistance level, if the test is not broken, short
V. Summary and Outlook
✅ Conclusion: Next week, the trend of gold will still be "high-short as the main and low-long as the auxiliary", focusing on the game between 3250 support and 3295 pressure level.
Gold has not yet broken out of the short structure, and the inertial decline after breaking 3295 will continue. It is recommended that traders avoid chasing ups and downs, strictly implement stop losses, and remain flexible.
Trade active
Analysis of the latest gold market trends (June 30, 2025)
1. Analysis of gold news
Weakened safe-haven demand: Gold prices fell nearly 2% last week, hitting a near one-month low (spot gold at $3,273/ounce), mainly due to the easing of tensions in the Middle East and progress in Sino-US trade negotiations, which weakened gold's safe-haven appeal.
Influence of Fed policy: Fed Chairman Powell's recent statement is hawkish, and the probability of a rate cut in July has dropped to 20%. The strengthening of the US dollar further suppresses gold prices.
Key events this week:
The meeting of global central bank governors may release monetary policy signals.
US non-farm data: If the employment data is strong, it may strengthen the Fed's expectations of maintaining high interest rates, which is bearish for gold.
Powell's resignation storm: Trump recently pressured Powell to resign, but the market generally believes that Powell will not leave early. If the remarks ferment, it may exacerbate market volatility.
2. Technical analysis of gold
Weekly level
Continuous Yin engulfing pattern, closing price fell below the 5-week moving average (3304) and 10-week moving average (3315), MACD downtrend momentum column increased, indicating bearish dominance, this week may test 3180-3175 support.
Key resistance: 3304-3315 (rebound shorting area).
Daily level
Double top structure confirmed (3452 is the second highest point), Bollinger band opened, 66-day moving average has been broken, short-term target looks at 100-day moving average (around 3200).
Short-term rebound resistance: 3295 (MA5 moving average), 3308 (previous high pressure).
4-hour level
There is a double bottom support near 3255 (3120-3452 band 0.618 retracement level), MACD bottom divergence, short-term rebound correction or.
Key support/resistance:
Above: 3295-3308 (short order layout area).
Below: 3250-3245 (if it falls below, look down to 3200).
3. Operation strategy
Short-term: short-selling when it rebounds to 3290-3300, stop loss 3315, target 3250-3240; if the 3245 support is effective, short-term long positions can be lightly held.
Medium- and long-term: if it falls below 3240, it may further drop to 3200-3180, and then you can observe the stabilization signal to arrange long orders.
Risk warning: Market volatility may intensify this week, and we need to pay close attention to the Fed's policy signals and changes in the geopolitical situation.
Trade closed: target reached
Summary of the latest trend analysis and operation suggestions for gold:
Core driving factors:
Expectations of Fed rate cuts are rising: The market's bets on at least two rate cuts in 2025 boost gold's appeal, and the weakening of the US dollar further supports gold prices.
Geopolitical and economic uncertainty: The progress of trade negotiations before the US tariff deadline (July 9) and the controversy over the Fed chairman candidate (Trump prefers a dovish candidate) have intensified the market's risk aversion demand.
Key data to be released: This week's US ADP employment and non-farm data will affect the Fed's policy expectations. If the data is weak, it may strengthen the logic of rate cuts, which is good for gold.
Key technical points:
Support level:
Short-term: US$3325-3315 (if the correction stabilizes in this area, long orders can be arranged).
Strong support: US$3260 (rapidly rebounded after bottoming out on Monday, forming a staged bottom).
Resistance level:
Short-term: US$3350-3360 (need to test the pressure in this area after breaking through 3347).
Watershed: 3370 USD (after breaking through or confirming the end of adjustment, open up the upward space).
Operation strategy:
Long opportunity:
If it falls back to 3320-3325 area and stabilizes (1-hour chart closes positive or indicator diverges), you can go long with a light position, target 3350-3360, stop loss below 3310.
Aggressive strategy: If the current price continues to sideways around 3335-3340 and does not break 3335, you can try long with a small position, enter and exit quickly.
Short opportunity:
When the 3360-3370 area is under pressure (long upper shadow appears in the 1-hour chart or MACD top divergence), go short, target 3340, stop loss above 3375.
If it falls directly below 3320 and the rebound is weak, it may fall back to the 3300 mark, but it needs to be judged in combination with the data.
Trend reversal signal:
To confirm the bottom, it needs to break through 3370 and stand firm, or fall back to 3260 without breaking to form a double bottom. There is no clear structure at present, so you need to wait patiently.
Risk warning:
Non-agricultural data disturbance: If the employment data is stronger than expected, it may suppress the expectation of interest rate cuts, causing gold to rise and fall.
Dollar trend: If the US Treasury yield falls due to risk aversion, it will indirectly benefit gold.
Position management: It is currently in the late stage of adjustment, and the volatility may be amplified. It is recommended to arrange light positions in batches and strictly stop losses.
Summary: In the short term, it is mainly long on pullbacks, focusing on the support area of 3320-3330; if it rebounds above 3360, you can try to short at high levels and wait for the trend structure to become clear. Be cautious in holding positions before the data to avoid excessive gambling.
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💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+OJSbWQ6F4KM2Mzk1
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.