Fundamentals
Although the market risk aversion has cooled down recently, the cumulative increase in gold this year is still more than 25%, mainly benefiting from the continued increase in gold holdings by global central banks and ETF fund inflows. The market is currently paying attention to the trend of US trade policy on July 9. If the negotiations break down or new tariffs are implemented, it may quickly stimulate safe-haven demand and drive gold prices to rebound. However, in the short term, due to the temporary strengthening of the US dollar and the profit-taking of some longs, gold prices are still facing correction pressure.
Technical analysis
Trend structure:
Key resistance level: The 3450-3500 area is still an important pressure area for gold. Previously, gold prices encountered resistance in this area and fell back, indicating that the selling pressure in this area is strong.
Short-term support level: At present, the 3300 mark has become the focus of competition between long and short sides. If it falls below, it may further bottom out in the 3250-3220 area.
Short-term momentum: The 4-hour moving average is under pressure in the short term, and the MACD indicator is weak, indicating that there is still room for correction in the short term.
Key points:
Upper resistance: 3320-3330 (short-term short-term defense), 3350-3360 (strong resistance)
Lower support: 3300 (psychological barrier), 3290-3280 (short-term long-term defense), 3250 (medium-term key support)
Trading strategy
1. Short-term short-term operation (main line idea)
Entry point: rebound to 3310-3320 area, you can try to short
Stop loss: above 3325
Target: 3300 (first target), look at 3280-3250 after breakthrough
2. Low-level defense long (cautious participation)
Entry point: first touch 3290-3280, you can try to go long with a light position
Stop loss: below 3275
Target: 3310-3320 (if the rebound is weak, leave in time)
Summary and outlook
Short-term trend: technical side is still bearish. If 3300 is lost, it may accelerate downward to 3280-3250.
Potential change signal: If the gold price stabilizes at 3320, it may retest 3350, but it needs fundamental support (such as rising risk aversion).
Operation suggestion: Pay attention to the rebound high. You can try to go long with a light position at the key support level, but you need to strictly stop loss.
(Personal opinion: Gold prices may continue to be under pressure in the short term, and the 3300 mark may be difficult to hold. The short target looks below 3280.)
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Free Signals：t.me/+WwrJpK6G_U9iM2Qx
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.