Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Updated

XAUUSD – Is Gold About to Break Out of Balance?

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Market Overview As the U.S. dollar maintains its upward momentum fueled by expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for an extended period, gold (XAUUSD) is currently trading near the key Point of Control (POC) for June. The consolidation around the $3,350–$3,360 zone indicates a temporary balance of supply and demand, and the market appears to be gearing up for a strong directional breakout in the upcoming sessions.

Detailed Technical Analysis ✅ Volume Profile & Price Structure
POC (highest volume level): $3,360 – the central volume area for the week/month

Current price: $3,353 – just below the POC, reflecting selling pressure dominance
Price is reacting to the demand zone at $3,343–$3,345, with significant volume support below

snapshot
Short-term reversal signals from ParLE and ParSE indicators suggest a potential market shift

🔍 Key Resistance Levels:
$3,360 – POC and immediate resistance zone
$3,398 – previous supply zone with strong rejection history
$3,451 – Fibonacci extension high and the strongest resistance for the month
🔍 Key Support Levels:
$3,345 – high-volume support cluster
$3,343 – Fibonacci and dynamic support zone
$3,276 – final support before mid-term structure breakdown

🎯 XAUUSD Trading Strategy for Today (June 23, 2025) 🔻 Primary Scenario: SHORT based on short-term bearish structure

Entry: $3,358–$3,360 (on POC retest + bearish rejection candle)
Stop Loss: $3,370
Take Profits:
TP1: $3,345
TP2: $3,343
TP3: $3,327

Probability: High, if price remains below POC

🔺 Alternative Scenario: LONG if price holds $3,343 support
Entry: $3,343–$3,345 (strong bullish candlestick setup in demand zone)
Stop Loss: $3,330
Take Profits:
TP1: $3,360 (POC)
TP2: $3,383
TP3: $3,398

⚠️ Risk Warning & Macro Factors to Watch
The USD Index is surging – applying downward pressure on gold
Fed's short-term rate projections (FedWatch Tool) reflect “no cut” expectations through Q3
Traders should maintain tight risk management within high-volume zones to avoid false breakouts


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