XAU/USD SHORT BIAS (at $3396) – Expecting a Sharp Decline
Thesis:
Gold is currently overextended at $3396, showing signs of exhaustion after a strong rally. Technical indicators and macroeconomic conditions suggest an imminent correction.
Reasons for Bearish Outlook:
1. Overbought Conditions – RSI and momentum oscillators are at extreme highs; a retracement is statistically likely.
2. Strong Resistance – Price approaching a historical supply zone; failed breakouts are common at this level.
3. Dollar Strengthening – If DXY gains strength due to Fed policy, gold could see downward pressure.
4. Bond Yields Rising – Higher yields reduce gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset.
Target Zones:
• Immediate target: $3310–$3290
• Deeper support: $3225–$3190
Risk:
If gold breaks and holds above $3420, the short thesis may be invalidated.
Thesis:
Gold is currently overextended at $3396, showing signs of exhaustion after a strong rally. Technical indicators and macroeconomic conditions suggest an imminent correction.
Reasons for Bearish Outlook:
1. Overbought Conditions – RSI and momentum oscillators are at extreme highs; a retracement is statistically likely.
2. Strong Resistance – Price approaching a historical supply zone; failed breakouts are common at this level.
3. Dollar Strengthening – If DXY gains strength due to Fed policy, gold could see downward pressure.
4. Bond Yields Rising – Higher yields reduce gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset.
Target Zones:
• Immediate target: $3310–$3290
• Deeper support: $3225–$3190
Risk:
If gold breaks and holds above $3420, the short thesis may be invalidated.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.