Gold Weekly Review: Geopolitical conflicts trigger safe-haven demand, gold prices soared 3.6% in a single week to stand above $3,400
Geopolitical crises dominate the market
On Friday (June 14), the international gold price rose rapidly, reaching a high of $3,446.71 per ounce, a new high in nearly two months, and finally closed above the key mark of $3,400. The cumulative increase this week was 3.6%, mainly affected by the sharp deterioration of the situation in the Middle East. The Bollinger Bands indicator shows that the gold price has broken through the upper track and is showing a strong upward trend.
The most serious military confrontation since the Israeli-Palestinian conflict broke out in the Middle East:
Israel launched an unprecedented strike: a large-scale air strike on Iran's nuclear facilities and missile factories, causing casualties among many senior personnel including military commanders and nuclear scientists. The Israeli side stated that the action was aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear weapons research and development capabilities.
Iran launched a retaliatory attack: two rounds of missiles were launched at major cities such as Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, and air defense systems were activated throughout Israel. The US military confirmed that it assisted in intercepting incoming missiles.
Strong statements by leaders: Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei accused Israel of provoking war, and senior officials warned that “there is no safe zone in Israel”; US President Trump hinted that Iran was responsible for the escalation of the situation.
Multiple factors support gold prices
Safe-haven demand surges: Military conflicts have led to an acceleration of global funds flowing into safe-haven assets such as gold. Market analysis shows that if the conflict continues to escalate, gold prices are expected to test the $3,500 mark in the short term.
Fed policy expectations: Weak inflation data (CPI) and slowing employment growth released this week have strengthened expectations of interest rate cuts. Although the market generally expects that the June meeting will remain unchanged, institutions predict:
Citi: The interest rate cut cycle will start in September, and each meeting thereafter will continue to cut interest rates until 2026
The interest rate dot plot may show two interest rate cuts in 2025
Structural buying support: Major investment banks maintain a long-term bullish view:
Goldman Sachs: Target $3,700 by the end of 2025, $4,000 by mid-2026
Bank of America: Target $4,000 in the next 12 months
Physical market and policy risks
Demand in Asia cools: Indian gold prices break through the psychological barrier of 100,000 rupees, suppressing local consumption.
Trade policy variables: US President Trump hinted that he may increase tariffs on auto imports, exacerbating global trade tensions. Relevant policy statements during the G7 summit next week are worth paying attention to.
Outlook
Next week, the market will focus on three key factors:
Geopolitical developments: Will the conflict between Iran and Israel escalate further?
Federal Reserve Decision (June 17-18):
Interest rate policy statement
Summary of economic forecasts (including dot plot)
Powell press conference wording
Economic data: May retail sales report will provide the latest clues on consumer demand
Technical data shows that after gold prices broke through key resistance levels, the upward channel has been opened. If geopolitical risks continue, combined with the Fed's release of dovish signals, gold prices may accelerate towards $3,500. However, we need to be wary of the risk of profit-taking caused by a sudden easing of the situation.
Trade active
Gold bullish trend continues, pay attention to the breakthrough of 3445. Below is an analysis of gold from a technical perspective, as well as the strategic layout for next week.
After a brief correction last week, gold closed strongly this week and returned to an extremely strong bullish structure.
The price stabilized above the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and the moving average system continued to diverge upward, indicating strong upward momentum. If the upward trend continues next week, the upper target can be seen at $3,500.
At the daily level, Thursday closed positively with the support of the short-term moving average, and on Friday, it was pushed up to 3444 (upward channel upper track pressure) by the geopolitical situation. The key breakthrough level is 3445: If it breaks through effectively, it will accelerate the upward test of 3500; otherwise, it may fall back to confirm support.
The monthly level maintains a long-term bullish outlook, and is expected to choose an upward breakthrough after eight weeks of volatility.
Short-term (1 hour), after a high of 3447, it pulled back to 3420, and the support was confirmed to be valid. The key support is 3420-3415. You can still buy low after the correction stabilizes. If it breaks through 3445 directly, follow up with long orders.
Trading strategy
Those who have already laid out can continue to follow the operation strategy on Friday. For those who hold orders, you can pay attention to the layout below in combination with the trend of next week.
Steady: Buy in the 3420-3415 area, stop loss 3408, target 3460-3500.
Aggressive: After breaking through 3445, step back to confirm long, target 3500.
Short orders are not involved for the time being, unless it falls below the key support of 3400.
Summary
Trend: The weekly and daily bullish structures are intact, and the short-term focus is on the breakthrough of 3445.
Key positions:
Support: 3420-3415, 3400
Resistance: 3445, 3500
Strategy: Mainly buy low and follow up after breakthrough.
Trade closed: target reached
Gold continued to rise in the early trading, and the risk aversion is rising and it is going to rise today. We have stepped back a lot at 3428 in the early trading. It is estimated that this is the low point today. In the short term, as long as it does not break the watershed here at 3428, the short-term trend is still very strong and there is still room for upward movement. Pay attention to the test of the 3470-80 area! We also said to the order last Friday that the bulls will explode on Monday! If it repeatedly steps back to 3430-33, there will still be many opportunities for a decline. It is strong above 3428. It is expected to fluctuate if it steps back to 3428. In the short term, the bears will not make much moves due to the news, and there are many opportunities for stepping back!
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.