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Following a tense market open yesterday, driven by escalating military tensions between Russia and Ukraine, the two sides concluded their negotiations in Istanbul. According to an Axios correspondent, Russia presented Ukraine with a formal peace proposal during the talks, outlining terms for a ceasefire and an end to the conflict.
Interfax reported that Russia issued an official memorandum listing its proposed conditions for achieving a ceasefire.
Key points in the document include:
• A full withdrawal of Ukrainian military forces from territories currently under Russian control, including Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.
• The complete removal of all existing economic sanctions and a mutual agreement to refrain from introducing new sanctions.
• A proposal to reestablish economic relations, including the resumption of natural gas transit through Ukraine.
• A demand for Ukraine to reduce its military personnel and weaponry, along with explicit guarantees of its non-nuclear status and a strict ban on deploying any nuclear arms on its territory.
• The memorandum also calls for the termination of general military mobilization in Ukraine and the initiation of a demobilization process as part of the path toward a ceasefire.
On the other side, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Kyiv and Moscow have agreed to a prisoner exchange involving 1,000 soldiers from each side. This exchange includes an additional 200 individuals per side compared to previous agreements. Zelensky described the deal as “another step in the right direction,” and noted that the lists of detainees would be exchanged between the countries later this week.
In U.S. economic news, the latest update from the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model forecasts a 4.6% annualized growth rate for real GDP in the second quarter of 2025. This is an upward revision from the previous estimate of 3.8% released on May 30. The revision followed new data releases from the U.S. Census Bureau and the ISM. In particular, personal consumption growth was raised from 3.3% to 4.0%, while private domestic investment was adjusted from –1.4% to +0.5%.
On the trade front, according to a draft letter obtained by Reuters, the Trump administration has urged participating countries to submit their best trade proposals by Wednesday. The goal is to accelerate talks with multiple partners ahead of a five-week deadline.
This draft, issued by the Office of the United States Trade Representative, provides a glimpse into how President Trump plans to wrap up complex trade negotiations with dozens of nations. These negotiations began on April 9, when he temporarily suspended his “Freedom Day” tariffs for 90 days—until July 8—following turmoil across equity, bond, and currency markets in response to the broad scope of the tariffs.
According to the draft, the U.S. is asking countries to submit top-tier offers across key areas, including tariff and quota proposals for importing American industrial and agricultural products, as well as plans to remove non-tariff barriers.
Stuart Jenkins from Goldman Sachs stated that elevated tariffs on steel and aluminum have likely contributed to a weakening of the U.S. dollar. On Friday, President Trump announced that these tariffs would double starting Wednesday, reaching 50%. Although metals represent a relatively small portion of U.S. imports and the broader impact may be limited, Jenkins noted that this move illustrates the administration’s continued ability to impose tariffs, even in the face of potential legal challenges.
Following a tense market open yesterday, driven by escalating military tensions between Russia and Ukraine, the two sides concluded their negotiations in Istanbul. According to an Axios correspondent, Russia presented Ukraine with a formal peace proposal during the talks, outlining terms for a ceasefire and an end to the conflict.
Interfax reported that Russia issued an official memorandum listing its proposed conditions for achieving a ceasefire.
Key points in the document include:
• A full withdrawal of Ukrainian military forces from territories currently under Russian control, including Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.
• The complete removal of all existing economic sanctions and a mutual agreement to refrain from introducing new sanctions.
• A proposal to reestablish economic relations, including the resumption of natural gas transit through Ukraine.
• A demand for Ukraine to reduce its military personnel and weaponry, along with explicit guarantees of its non-nuclear status and a strict ban on deploying any nuclear arms on its territory.
• The memorandum also calls for the termination of general military mobilization in Ukraine and the initiation of a demobilization process as part of the path toward a ceasefire.
On the other side, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Kyiv and Moscow have agreed to a prisoner exchange involving 1,000 soldiers from each side. This exchange includes an additional 200 individuals per side compared to previous agreements. Zelensky described the deal as “another step in the right direction,” and noted that the lists of detainees would be exchanged between the countries later this week.
In U.S. economic news, the latest update from the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model forecasts a 4.6% annualized growth rate for real GDP in the second quarter of 2025. This is an upward revision from the previous estimate of 3.8% released on May 30. The revision followed new data releases from the U.S. Census Bureau and the ISM. In particular, personal consumption growth was raised from 3.3% to 4.0%, while private domestic investment was adjusted from –1.4% to +0.5%.
On the trade front, according to a draft letter obtained by Reuters, the Trump administration has urged participating countries to submit their best trade proposals by Wednesday. The goal is to accelerate talks with multiple partners ahead of a five-week deadline.
This draft, issued by the Office of the United States Trade Representative, provides a glimpse into how President Trump plans to wrap up complex trade negotiations with dozens of nations. These negotiations began on April 9, when he temporarily suspended his “Freedom Day” tariffs for 90 days—until July 8—following turmoil across equity, bond, and currency markets in response to the broad scope of the tariffs.
According to the draft, the U.S. is asking countries to submit top-tier offers across key areas, including tariff and quota proposals for importing American industrial and agricultural products, as well as plans to remove non-tariff barriers.
Stuart Jenkins from Goldman Sachs stated that elevated tariffs on steel and aluminum have likely contributed to a weakening of the U.S. dollar. On Friday, President Trump announced that these tariffs would double starting Wednesday, reaching 50%. Although metals represent a relatively small portion of U.S. imports and the broader impact may be limited, Jenkins noted that this move illustrates the administration’s continued ability to impose tariffs, even in the face of potential legal challenges.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.