I. Key points on the news
The US dollar rebounded strongly
The US dollar index (DXY) rebounded from a low in the past month, reaching a high of 99.42 (+0.4%), suppressing gold demand.
If the US dollar continues to rebound, gold may be further under pressure.
Risk aversion sentiment cools down
Market concerns about the international trade situation have eased, weakening gold's safe-haven buying.
If risk sentiment deteriorates again (such as escalation of geopolitical conflicts), gold prices may rebound quickly.
Fed policy expectations
The market pays attention to US economic data and speeches by Fed officials. If "hawkish" signals are released (such as rising expectations of interest rate hikes), it will be bearish for gold.
II. Key technical analysis
(1) Trend structure
Daily level:
The adjustment structure since $3,500 is still continuing, and it may currently be in the a-wave decline after the X-wave rebound.
If it falls below the 3280-3292 support, it may accelerate downward, with a target of 3270→3250, or even test 2956 (bottom of wave 4).
If 3280 is held, it may rebound at the 4-hour level and test the resistance of 3320-3330.
Key resistance:
3320-3330 (ideal area for short-term short positions)
3365-3370 (previous top and bottom conversion + 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level, strong resistance)
Key support:
3280-3292 (short-term long-short watershed)
3270 (breaking will confirm further decline)
(2) Short-term trend judgment
If the US dollar continues to strengthen → gold breaks below 3280 and looks to 3270-3250.
If the US dollar pulls back or risk aversion heats up → gold rebounds and tests 3320-3330.
3. Today's trading strategy
(1) Short order strategy (main idea)
Entry point: 3320-3330 area
Target: 3290→3270
Stop loss: above 3335
(2) Long order strategy (auxiliary idea)
Condition: Gold price stabilizes at 3280-3292 (need to combine K-line signals, such as hammer line, etc.)
Target: 3300-3310
Stop loss: below 3270
(3) Breakthrough strategy
If it falls below 3270 → go short, target 3250-3230.
If it breaks through 3330 → wait and see whether to further test 3365-3370.
4. Summary
Short-term trend: bearish, pay attention to the breakthrough of 3280-3330.
Key drivers: US dollar trend, market risk sentiment, and Fed policy expectations.
Operation suggestions:
Main strategy: short when the price rebounds to 3320-3330.
Secondary strategy: try to buy with a light position at the support level of 3280-3292 (strict stop loss).
Breakthrough follow-up: short when the price falls below 3270, or wait for higher resistance after breaking through 3330 before shorting.
Trade active
Analysis of the latest trend of gold
Last week, gold has risen by 3% cumulatively, and is expected to record the best single-week performance since early April. The current gold market shows a cautious and optimistic sentiment. On the one hand, fundamental positive factors continue to accumulate, including escalating geopolitical risks, intensified US fiscal concerns, and support from monetary policy expectations. These factors maintain the market's bullish sentiment basis.
2025 is a strong year for gold. The risk aversion of gold cannot be seen from a single factor, such as changes in the geopolitical situation, the unsuccessful negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the decline in US debt confidence, and the increase in global central bank purchases. Gold will still go out of the upside as a strong risk aversion tool. Therefore, as long as the overall environment remains unchanged, it is difficult for gold to have a large short or a large downside in the short term.
After stabilizing at 3285 on Tuesday, the gains and losses of 3315 during the day are the key to the subsequent layout. The current price pattern is similar to the Asian morning market last Friday, and it once again tested the 3315 position, but it fell back after a high rise. The Asian morning market did not stand at 3315, which means that the short-term retracement and decline have not ended, and only a breakthrough of 3325 will have a chance to continue upward. So first treat it around the pressure and temporarily focus on the range of 3325 to 3280.
Gold is not so strong at the 4-hour level. The market encountered resistance and fell back at the upper track. Now the market has fallen and touched the lower track. The Bollinger Bands are not open and are flat, indicating that the market is in a short-term volatile trend. The lower support of 3280 just coincides with the lower track. The upper side focuses on the resistance near the middle track of 3325. If the pressure near the middle track of 3325 is broken, it can be seen to the upper track of 3365. If the market breaks below 3280, the market will weaken. At that time, it will be seen around 3250-3230. Intraday trading, 3280 is used as defense to see a rebound. The rise will gradually see 3325. If 3325 breaks strongly, do not short.
Investment strategy: Gold 3325 short, stop loss 3335, target 3250
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.