XAUUSD surged Friday after disappointing payroll data showing just 22K jobs added versus 75K expected, solidifying Fed rate cut expectations at 87.8% probability for September's meeting. The precious metal has already hit record highs above $3,500, gaining over 30% year-to-date as weakening labor conditions fuel aggressive easing bets.The 4-hour chart reveals gold touched above the $3,600 resistance zone with bullish momentum intact. If the market pulls back then there's 38.2% fibo retracement level to consider. Overall gain of 4.75% in one week suggests minor consolidation might occur before targeting the upper resistance around $3,650. The ascending channel remains unbroken, supporting continued upward movement.
The broader perspective shows gold emerging from a prolonged consolidation phase, with the recent breakout confirming a major $3,500 level. Gold initially demonstrated its first impulse leg, then moved sideways for four months, and is now in the process of forming its second impulse leg, which will end at around $3,660.
Some economists now debate whether the Fed might deliver a jumbo 50-basis-point cut given consecutive weak employment reports, which could propel gold toward the $3,660-3,700 correction zone upper boundary. Key support lies at $3500-3530, while sustained weakness could test the major trendline near $3,450.
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XAUUSD is advancing inside an upward channel after a breakout from the consolidation zone, pushing toward higher highs near the resistance area. The structure shows a clean sequence of higher lows and extensions, confirming bullish momentum. Price is currently coiling just above 3,600 support with the projection level toward 3,660. If momentum persists, bulls may attempt a breakout into the upper resistance zone.📉 Key Levels
- Buy trigger: Hold above 3,570
- Buy zone: 3,570 – 3,585
- Target: 3,660
- Invalidation: Close below 3,545
💡 Risks
- A sharp rejection from the 3,620–3,640 resistance block could trigger a deeper pullback.
- CPI-related volatility or Fed commentary may disrupt the bullish continuation.
- A break back below 3,545 support would shift the bias to neutral-to-bearish.
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💰FREE FOREX signals in Telegram: bit.ly/3F4mrMi
🚀FREE CRYPTO signals in Telegram: t.me/cryptolingrid
🌎WebSite: lingrid.org
🚀FREE CRYPTO signals in Telegram: t.me/cryptolingrid
🌎WebSite: lingrid.org
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.