Core logic analysis
Negative factors
The strengthening of the US dollar: the cooling of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations (the market is currently pricing in a 58 basis point rate cut by the end of the year, a significant reduction from April) suppresses the attractiveness of gold.
Risk appetite rebounds: The easing of Sino-US trade tensions weakens the demand for safe-haven assets, leading to long-term profit-taking.
Technical selling pressure: The weekly big negative line (a drop of nearly 4%) forms a short-term bearish trend, and we need to be vigilant about the risk of further correction.
Potential support
Long-term downward trend in real interest rates: If the Fed starts a rate cut cycle this year, gold will still have allocation value in the medium and long term.
Key technical support: There is long defense in the 3150-3140 area (daily line division and channel lower track), and if it stabilizes, it may trigger a rebound.
Key technical points
Upper resistance:
3210-3212 (anti-pressure point on Friday, May 16, which may confirm the short-term bottom after breaking through)
3230-3250 (strong resistance area, short orders can be considered when rebounding to this point).
Support below:
3170-3150 (core support area, if it falls below, it will look down to the previous low of 3120)
3140 (lower channel track, breaking may trigger an accelerated decline).
Operation strategy for next week
1. Trading in the shock range (high probability scenario)
Bull opportunity:
If it falls back to the 3150-3170 area and stabilizes (such as the K-line closes with a long lower shadow or the hourly chart diverges), go long with a light position, stop loss below 3140, and target 3210-3230.
Confirmation signal on the right: If the price stabilizes above 3212, you can follow up with a long order, with a target of 3250.
Short opportunity:
Rebound to 3230-3250 under pressure (if a stagflation pattern appears), go short, stop loss 3260, and target 3180-3150.
2. Breakthrough and follow-up strategy
Break above 3250: may start a new round of uptrend, follow up long orders when it falls back to 3230, target 3300.
Break below 3140: beware of deep correction, short at rebound 3160, target 3120-3100.
Risk warning
News disturbance:
If the speeches of Fed officials and US economic data (such as CPI and retail sales) strengthen the expectation of interest rate cuts, it may reverse the decline of gold.
The sudden escalation of the geopolitical situation (Russia-Ukraine conflict, etc.) will boost safe-haven buying.
Position management:
The current market is volatile, it is recommended to enter the market in batches with light positions and strictly stop losses (3-5 US dollars is appropriate).
Summary
Next week, gold is likely to fluctuate and bottom out in the range of 3150-3250, focusing on the gains and losses of 3150 support and 3212 breakthrough. Investors need to respond flexibly, avoid chasing ups and downs, and wait for key positions to be confirmed before trading in line with the trend. In the medium and long term, if the Fed's policy changes, gold still has upside potential, but it needs to digest technical selling pressure in the short term.
Trade active
Several major news over the weekend:1. The US rating was downgraded. Moody's, an international credit rating agency, announced on May 16 that due to the increase in the proportion of US government debt and interest payments, the agency decided to downgrade the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, and at the same time adjusted the US sovereign credit rating outlook from "negative" to "stable".
2. Trump continued to force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. On Saturday (May 17th) local time, US President Trump posted on his social platform "Real Social": "Almost everyone agrees that 'the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates as soon as possible, rather than delaying it later'. 'Always late Powell'-this man known for his slow action, may mess up everything again, who knows?"
3. The Federal Reserve suddenly laid off employees. According to the latest news, the Federal Reserve has decided to reduce 10% of its employees in the next few years. On May 16th local time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said in a memo to employees that the overall number of employees at the Federal Reserve will be reduced by about 10% in the next few years compared to now.
4. China reduced its holdings of U.S. debt. In March 2025, China's holdings of U.S. debt fell by $18.9 billion to $765.4 billion. It is currently the third largest holder of U.S. debt. At the same time, the People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for six consecutive months, and the proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves has exceeded 4.5%, a five-year high.
5. The Russian-Ukrainian negotiations are deadlocked. The Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the trilateral talks between Turkey, Russia and Ukraine have ended. This is the first direct dialogue between Russia and Ukraine in three years. Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada member Zheleznyak said that the Istanbul negotiations were fruitless. The head of the Russian delegation, Medinsky, said that the Russian side was basically satisfied with the results of the talks and was willing to continue to maintain contact.
Trade closed: target reached
From a technical perspective, gold closed with a medium-yin line with a long lower shadow last week, indicating strong support below. It opened higher on Monday and then fell back to around $3,252, indicating that there are differences between short-term bulls and bears, forming a shock consolidation pattern. It is worth noting that the price of gold has regained its footing on the 60-day moving average, and the daily Bollinger Bands show signs of closing, indicating that the market is accumulating energy. The current technical pattern shows that gold has turned from weak to strong, and is expected to continue its upward trend this week. The upper target can be seen at $3,280; if it breaks through this resistance level, it may fill the previous gap and further test $3,350 or even $3,400.
The 1-hour K-line shows that gold has recovered the losses on Friday after bottoming out and the current price is close to the upper track of the Bollinger Bands. Technical indicators show that there is an obvious bottoming signal below, indicating that there is still room for growth. However, before the $3,280 resistance level is effectively broken, it is difficult for gold to form a unilateral upward trend. Therefore, the operation strategy this week should be divided into two stages: treat the price below 3280 USD as a volatile upward trend, and turn to a unilateral upward trend after breaking through. The specific operation suggestions are: it is not advisable to chase long positions after the Asian morning opening, and you can short short positions with a light position near the upper track of the 4-hour Bollinger band; focus on the breakthrough of 3252 USD above, and if the breakthrough is confirmed, further look at the resistance levels of 3265 USD and 3280 USD. On the whole, today's short-term operation recommendation is to focus on buying on pullbacks and buying on dips, supplemented by rebounds and selling on highs. The short-term resistance on the top is focused on the 3265-3280 USD range, and the support on the bottom is focused on the 3210-3200 USD area.
Operation strategy:
1. It is recommended to buy gold in the callback area of 3230-3225, with a stop loss at 3217 and a target of 3245-3265
2. It is recommended to sell gold in the rebound area of 3250-3255, with a stop loss at 3263 and a target of 3235-3225
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.