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💡Message Strategy
The Fed's monetary policy divergence has intensified. Fed Board member Waller advocates a 25 basis point rate cut in July, believing that tariff inflation is temporary; Board member Kugler insists on maintaining high interest rates to fight inflation; Chicago Fed member Goolsbee believes that the latest consumer price index data shows that tariffs have pushed up commodity inflation, and is "slightly concerned" about this, but then expounds on a different view, that is, interest rates are expected to fall sharply in the coming year. It implies that there may be a "substantial rate cut" in the next 12 months.
At present, the Fed has gradually begun to prepare for a rate cut. Whether this is the result of pressure from Trump or the Fed has gradually shown optimism about inflation and concerns about recession, a rate cut is imminent. At present, the market expects the probability of a rate cut in July to rise to 30%, and the probability of a rate cut in September to 54%.
In terms of tariffs, the countdown to August 1 tariffs: the United States plans to impose a 30% tariff on the EU/Mexico, and the EU has drawn up a retaliation list of $84.1 billion. The US Secretary of Commerce expressed confidence that an agreement can be reached with the EU, and small countries need to pay a 10% base tariff. Tariffs will be levied on August 1.
At present, Trump has a tough stance, requiring the minimum tariff of the European and American agreement to be set at 15%-20%, and the scope of exemptions is narrowed (only aviation, medical equipment, etc.). The deadline is approaching, and the market has also begun to start a risk-averse expectation mode.
📊Technical aspects
From the 1H cycle trend structure, gold is currently rebounding upward and breaking through the 4H level downward trend line. From the indicator point of view, the 1-hour level Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator breaking through the baseline on the turning line, the delay line stands firmly above the K line, the future cloud is an upward cloud, and the bullish signal is significant.
Gold is currently in the center of the rising channel cloud. Today, we can focus on the support brought by the lower boundary of the channel and try to go long.
Gold rose as expected, and the bulls began to remain strong. Once gold breaks through the upper pressure, it will continue to gain momentum, and gold bulls are expected to reach a higher level.
💰Strategy Package
Long Position:3370-3380，SL：3350，Target: 3420,3400
💡Message Strategy
The Fed's monetary policy divergence has intensified. Fed Board member Waller advocates a 25 basis point rate cut in July, believing that tariff inflation is temporary; Board member Kugler insists on maintaining high interest rates to fight inflation; Chicago Fed member Goolsbee believes that the latest consumer price index data shows that tariffs have pushed up commodity inflation, and is "slightly concerned" about this, but then expounds on a different view, that is, interest rates are expected to fall sharply in the coming year. It implies that there may be a "substantial rate cut" in the next 12 months.
At present, the Fed has gradually begun to prepare for a rate cut. Whether this is the result of pressure from Trump or the Fed has gradually shown optimism about inflation and concerns about recession, a rate cut is imminent. At present, the market expects the probability of a rate cut in July to rise to 30%, and the probability of a rate cut in September to 54%.
In terms of tariffs, the countdown to August 1 tariffs: the United States plans to impose a 30% tariff on the EU/Mexico, and the EU has drawn up a retaliation list of $84.1 billion. The US Secretary of Commerce expressed confidence that an agreement can be reached with the EU, and small countries need to pay a 10% base tariff. Tariffs will be levied on August 1.
At present, Trump has a tough stance, requiring the minimum tariff of the European and American agreement to be set at 15%-20%, and the scope of exemptions is narrowed (only aviation, medical equipment, etc.). The deadline is approaching, and the market has also begun to start a risk-averse expectation mode.
📊Technical aspects
From the 1H cycle trend structure, gold is currently rebounding upward and breaking through the 4H level downward trend line. From the indicator point of view, the 1-hour level Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator breaking through the baseline on the turning line, the delay line stands firmly above the K line, the future cloud is an upward cloud, and the bullish signal is significant.
Gold is currently in the center of the rising channel cloud. Today, we can focus on the support brought by the lower boundary of the channel and try to go long.
Gold rose as expected, and the bulls began to remain strong. Once gold breaks through the upper pressure, it will continue to gain momentum, and gold bulls are expected to reach a higher level.
💰Strategy Package
Long Position:3370-3380，SL：3350，Target: 3420,3400
Trade active
As interest rate cuts approach, gold prices regain strengthTrade closed: target reached
Gold continues to rise, in line with our bullish view
Through scientific and rigorous financial analysis and personalized strategy formulation, we help you achieve stable growth of wealth. At the same time, in a complex and changing economic environment, we help you avoid potential risks and protect the saf
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Through scientific and rigorous financial analysis and personalized strategy formulation, we help you achieve stable growth of wealth. At the same time, in a complex and changing economic environment, we help you avoid potential risks and protect the saf
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.