MARKET NARRATIVE: Analyzing the Gold Spot (XAUUSD) across multiple timeframes, we observe a consistent pattern of recovery from a recent downtrend. The 1D chart shows a series of declining peaks, but recent candles indicate a potential reversal or pullback. The 4H and 1H charts confirm this with a clear recovery from the lows, suggesting a shift in market sentiment. The 15m, 5m, and 1m charts show a more granular view of this recovery, with price action forming higher lows and higher highs, indicative of a short-term bullish momentum.
INSTITUTIONAL THESIS: Institutions appear to be in a phase of accumulation after a significant sell-off, targeting liquidity above previous highs to trap late bearish entries. The recent bullish candles across lower timeframes suggest an engineered push to create a bullish sentiment, likely to induce retail traders into the market before a potential larger move.
LEARNING POINT: "1H and 4H show recovery with potential liquidity sweeps above recent highs indicating a shift from bearish to bullish sentiment."
SIGNAL: WAIT SYMBOL: XAUUSD ENTRY PRICE: $3,290.25 STOP LOSS: $3,280.00 (just below the recent swing low on the 15m chart) TARGET PRICE: $3,310.00 (near the previous high on the 1H chart) CONDITION: Buy limit order at $3,290.25 after confirming a bullish continuation pattern on the 15m chart. **RATIONALE: Calculated risk/reward ratio of 1:1.9 (Risk=**0.25, Reward=**9.75) does not meet minimum 2:1 requirement. Waiting for better institutional setup with improved risk parameters.
Market Structure: Recovery from lows on higher timeframes with higher lows and higher highs on lower timeframes.
Momentum: Bullish candles forming consistently across multiple timeframes.
Liquidity: Targeting stops above $3,300, a psychological resistance and previous high.
Strategies Used: Multi-timeframe recovery analysis, liquidity targeting above recent highs.
URGENCY: MEDIUM
TIMEFRAME: Short-term
CONFIDENCE SCORE: 85% (based on current bullish momentum and institutional activity)
**RISK/REWARD RATIO: Risk=$10.25, Reward=$19.75, Ratio=1:1.9 (Below 2:1 minimum)
RISK/REWARD CALCULATION:
Risk = Entry Price - Stop Loss = $3,290.25 - $3,280.00 = $10.25
Reward = Target Price - Entry Price = $3,310.00 - $3,290.25 = $19.75
Ratio = Reward ÷ Risk = $19.75 ÷ $10.25 ≈ 1.93
FINAL DECISION: WAIT The calculated risk/reward ratio is slightly below the minimum threshold of 2:1. Therefore, while the setup shows bullish potential, the current positioning does not offer sufficient reward relative to the risk. Awaiting a better entry point or adjustment in stop loss/target prices could enhance the trade's viability.
INSTITUTIONAL THESIS: Institutions appear to be in a phase of accumulation after a significant sell-off, targeting liquidity above previous highs to trap late bearish entries. The recent bullish candles across lower timeframes suggest an engineered push to create a bullish sentiment, likely to induce retail traders into the market before a potential larger move.
LEARNING POINT: "1H and 4H show recovery with potential liquidity sweeps above recent highs indicating a shift from bearish to bullish sentiment."
SIGNAL: WAIT SYMBOL: XAUUSD ENTRY PRICE: $3,290.25 STOP LOSS: $3,280.00 (just below the recent swing low on the 15m chart) TARGET PRICE: $3,310.00 (near the previous high on the 1H chart) CONDITION: Buy limit order at $3,290.25 after confirming a bullish continuation pattern on the 15m chart. **RATIONALE: Calculated risk/reward ratio of 1:1.9 (Risk=**0.25, Reward=**9.75) does not meet minimum 2:1 requirement. Waiting for better institutional setup with improved risk parameters.
Market Structure: Recovery from lows on higher timeframes with higher lows and higher highs on lower timeframes.
Momentum: Bullish candles forming consistently across multiple timeframes.
Liquidity: Targeting stops above $3,300, a psychological resistance and previous high.
Strategies Used: Multi-timeframe recovery analysis, liquidity targeting above recent highs.
URGENCY: MEDIUM
TIMEFRAME: Short-term
CONFIDENCE SCORE: 85% (based on current bullish momentum and institutional activity)
**RISK/REWARD RATIO: Risk=$10.25, Reward=$19.75, Ratio=1:1.9 (Below 2:1 minimum)
RISK/REWARD CALCULATION:
Risk = Entry Price - Stop Loss = $3,290.25 - $3,280.00 = $10.25
Reward = Target Price - Entry Price = $3,310.00 - $3,290.25 = $19.75
Ratio = Reward ÷ Risk = $19.75 ÷ $10.25 ≈ 1.93
FINAL DECISION: WAIT The calculated risk/reward ratio is slightly below the minimum threshold of 2:1. Therefore, while the setup shows bullish potential, the current positioning does not offer sufficient reward relative to the risk. Awaiting a better entry point or adjustment in stop loss/target prices could enhance the trade's viability.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.